Iowa Public Television

Borg: WELL, WHEN THE SUN COMES UP WEDNESDAY MORNING, WE'LL HAVE ELECTED A NEW PRESIDENT AND VICE PRESIDENT, AND A NEW ADMINISTRATION WILL BE TAKING SHAPE. THE BALANCE OF POWER IN THE U.S. CONGRESS COULD BE ALTERED, AND CLOSER TO HOME, THERE COULD BE A NEW LOOK TO THE IOWA GENERAL ASSEMBLY. WHATEVER THE CASE, THIS GENERAL ELECTION IS ONE THAT CAN JUSTIFIABLY BE LABELED THE ELECTION TOO CLOSE TO CALL, AND TODAY THAT'S THE OFFICIAL ASSESSMENT OF THE POLITICAL OBSERVERS. DOWN THE ROAD, IT COULD ALSO BE THE ASSESSMENT OF POLITICAL HISTORIANS. IN THE DIN OF ALL THE LATE CAMPAIGN ELECTIONEERING ARE THE ISSUES DRIVING THE CAMPAIGNS, BUT NOT NECESSARILY MOTIVATING THE ELECTORATE, AND TODAY WE PUT THAT DYNAMIC ON THE IOWA PRESS TABLE. JOINING US: DAVID YEPSEN OF THE DES MOINES REGISTER, KAY HENDERSON OF RADIO IOWA; JOYCE RUSSELL OF WOI PUBLIC RADIO, AND KATHIE OBRADOVICH OF THE LEE NEWSPAPERS. KATHIE, WE'LL START WITH YOU. IOWA HAS BEEN LABELED, MAYBE STILL IS -- WE SHOULD SAY THAT WE'RE TAPING THIS PROGRAM AND YOUR COMMENTS ON FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 3, SO WHAT HAPPENS BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SUNDAY, WE CAN'T CONTROL. BUT IOWA IS LABELED A TOSS-UP STATE, BUT YOU'VE BEEN OUT ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL. ANYTHING THAT LEADS YOU TO DISPUTE THAT TOSS-UP LABEL?

Obradovich: NOT REALLY, DEAN. AS YOU MENTIONED, IT IS FRIDAY HERE, BUT THE POLLS HAVE BEEN PRACTICALLY DEAD EVEN IN IOWA. EVERYTHING WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR. I WOULD HAVE THOUGHT THAT THINGS WERE STARTING TO MOVE A LITTLE BIT TOWARD BUSH. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, HE HAD A REALLY GREAT RALLY IN WEST DES MOINES. THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE CAME OUT TO SEE HIM AND WERE REALLY ENTHUSIASTIC. IT'S HARD TO SAY HOW THIS REVELATION OF HIS DRUNK DRIVING ARREST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WILL PLAY WITH VOTERS IN IOWA. YOU MENTIONED THAT IOWA IS A TOSSUP, AND THE CANDIDATES ARE OBVIOUSLY TREATING IT THAT WAY. WE'VE SEEN MORE CANDIDATES VISITS TO THE STATE IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS THAN WE DID DURING THE WHOLE ELECTION LAST CYCLE, I THINK. SO THEY'RE DEFINITELY TREATING IOWA AS IF IT'S IN PLAY.

Borg: JOYCE, WHAT'S YOUR ASSESSMENT?

Russell: WHAT KATHIE SAID IS DEFINITELY TRUE. SOME PEOPLE HAVE USED THE WORD "UNPRECEDENTED" TO DESCRIBE THE AMOUNT OF ATTENTION THE CANDIDATES HAVE GIVEN TO IOWA. WE'RE USED TO THIS HERE DURING CAUCUSES, OF COURSE. BUT I THINK FIVE OR SIX VISITS FROM EACH OF THE CANDIDATES DURING THE GENERAL -- BETWEEN THE CONVENTION AND THE ELECTION IS VERY UNUSUAL.

Borg: KAY, STILL A TOSSUP? AND KATHIE MENTIONED TURNOUT, BUT CAN YOU REALLY EVEN GAUGE TURNOUT AND USE THAT AS A FACTOR IN HOW POPULAR ONE CANDIDATE IS OVER THE OTHER, BECAUSE THOSE EVENTS ARE PRETTY CAREFULLY CONTROLLED WITH TICKETS?

Henderson: I THINK WHAT YOU'RE SEEING IS TURNOUT THAT WILL BE PARTY LOYALISTS. I THINK PEOPLE IN THE MIDDLE HAVE BEEN TURNED OFF BY THIS ELECTION, BY THE ISSUES THAT HAVE BEEN STRESSED BY BOTH OF THE CANDIDATES. SO THOSE PEOPLE WHO IDENTIFY THEMSELVES AT THIS LATE DATE AS UNDECIDED VOTERS, I THINK THOSE ARE STAY-AT-HOME VOTERS. THEY AREN'T NECESSARILY GOING TO CAST A BALLOT. SECONDARILY, I THINK THIS REVELATION THAT KATHIE MENTIONED OF BUSH'S DRUNKEN DRIVING ARREST, AND DICK CHENEY, HIS RUNNING MATE, ADMITTING THAT HE HAD TWO DRUNKEN DRIVING ARRESTS HIMSELF WHEN HE WAS A YOUNG MAN IN HIS TWENTIES GALVANIZED REPUBLICANS. I STOPPED AT A COFFEE SHOP ON THE WAY TO THE STUDIO THIS MORNING AND JUST TRIED TO OVERHEAR THE CONVERSATION. STOPPED AT A GAS STATION AND DID THE SAME THING. IT MAKES REPUBLICANS ANGRY. SO IT MOTIVATED -- IT'S A MOTIVATOR FOR REPUBLICANS. I THINK IT MAY TURN OFF MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD VOTERS. AND DEMOCRATS, I DON'T THINK IT HAD MUCH OF AN EFFECT AT ALL ON DEMOCRAT VOTERS. SO IT'S A REALLY INTERESTING REVELATION AT THE VERY END, AND IT MAY IN TURN END UP HELPING BUSH WITH HIS OWN CORE VOTERS.

Borg: DAVE, YOU KNOW THAT SHE'S MENTIONING THAT AS A POSSIBLE FACTOR IN A RACE THAT'S AIRTIGHT ALREADY, AND THE SAME RHETORIC SEEMS TO BE REPEATED OVER AND OVER AGAIN. BUT ALL OF A SUDDEN THIS CONVICTION, IS THAT A LAST-MINUTE FACTOR THAT COULD TIP?

Yepsen: I THINK IT COULD BACKFIRE. I THINK DEMOCRATS WHO ARE CHORTLING ABOUT THIS DRUNK DRIVING CONVICTION ARE WRONG. VOTERS ARE VERY FAIR ABOUT THINGS LIKE THIS. IT'S THE END OF THE CAMPAIGN. MY EXPERIENCE WITH LAST-MINUTE SLURS AND ATTACKS AND STUFF LIKE THIS IS IT BACKFIRES. IT CAN HURT A CAMPAIGN. THIS ELECTION IS SO CLOSE THOUGH, DEAN, I WOULDN'T ATTRIBUTE THE OUTCOME TO THIS ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. IT'S A CLOSE ELECTION. I THINK THERE'S GOING TO BE A GOOD TURNOUT. PEOPLE ON BOTH SIDES KNOW THAT THEIR VOTE IS IMPORTANT, IT REALLY COUNTS. I THINK THE CANDIDATES ARE SPENDING A LOT OF TIME HERE IN IOWA, AND I'M NOT SURE IT'S WISE. SOMEBODY IS GOING TO WAKE UP AFTER THE ELECTION HAVING LOST, AND THEY'RE GOING TO LOOK AROUND AND WONDER WHY WERE WE SPENDING SO DAMN MUCH TIME IN IOWA BACK DURING THE CAMPAIGN WITH SEVEN ELECTORAL VOTES. WE SHOULD HAVE BEEN IN PENNSYLVANIA. WE SHOULD HAVE BEEN IN FLORIDA. SO I'M NOT SURE IT'S WISE, IF FOR NO OTHER REASON THAN IT TAKES A LOT OF TIME FOR CAMPAIGN STAFFS TO ORGANIZE. AND RATHER THAN ORGANIZING YET ANOTHER RALLY FOR A CANDIDATE, I THINK THE TIME OF RANK-AND-FILE DEMOCRATS AND RANK-AND-FILE REPUBLICANS IS BETTER SPENT GETTING OUT THEIR VOTE.

Obradovich: THAT'S ONE PLACE, DAVID, TOO, WHERE I THINK THAT DRUNK DRIVING ARREST DOES HURT BUSH. THEY'RE SUPPOSED TO BE SPENDING THEIR TIME AND ATTENTION GETTING OUT THIS VOTE, AND SUDDENLY THERE'S GOING TO BE, PROBABLY, A LANDSLIDE OF VARIOUS MINOR REVELATIONS NOW LEADING UP TO ELECTION DAY, AND THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE TO SPEND THEIR TIME TALKING ABOUT IT. I ABSOLUTELY AGREE WITH YOU GUYS THAT REPUBLICANS ARE GOING TO BLAME THE DEMOCRATS FOR THIS AND IT WILL MAKE THEM MAD AND GET THEM OUT, BUT THE IMPACT OF THAT MIGHT BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY PEOPLE SAYING, "WELL, WHAT ELSE IS OUT THERE NOW." THE BUSH CAMPAIGN IS GOING TO HAVE TO BE DISTRACTED IN RESPONDING TO ALL THESE THINGS. IT RAISES MORE QUESTIONS THAN IT ANSWERS, LIKE WHY DID THEY KEEP IT SECRET FOR SO LONG AND DID HE REALLY NEVER GET BEHIND THE CAR WHEN HE WAS STILL DRINKING FOR TEN YEARS AFTERWARDS?

Yepsen: VOTERS WHO CARE ABOUT THAT THING I THINK KNEW LONG AGO THAT GEORGE W. BUSH PROBABLY HAD A FEW POPS BACK WHEN HE WAS A KID. I THINK PEOPLE WHO CARE ABOUT THAT KIND OF THING HAVE ALREADY MADE UP THEIR MINDS TO BE AGAINST BUSH, SO I DON'T THINK IT NETS ANYTHING FOR GORE? Obradovich: BUSH VOTERS PROBABLY ALSO WERE PREPARED FOR SOME TYPE OF LAST-MINUTE REVELATION. I MEAN, THEY KNEW THAT BUSH WAS NOT SAYING EVERYTHING THAT HE DID IN HIS PAST. AND THEY MIGHT BE SAYING, "WELL, IS THAT ALL. NO BIG DEAL."

Russell: AND THE BUSH CAMPAIGN WAS QUICK TO AT LEAST INTIMATE THAT THE DEMOCRATS WERE BEHIND THIS REVELATION. AND CHRIST LEHANE, GORE'S MAIN SPOKESMAN WAS VERY QUICK TO SAY "WE DIDN'T HAVE ANYTHING TO DO WITH THIS." I THINK THE DEMOCRATS ARE ONTO WHAT DAVID WAS SAYING, WHICH IS THIS COULD JUST BACKFIRE, PEOPLE WOULD SEE THIS AS UNFAIR, LAST-MINUTE SLURRING OF THE CANDIDATE, SOMETHING YOU CAN'T REALLY TAKE CARE OF IN THE FEW DAYS THAT ARE LEFT.

Borg: YOU KNOW, YOU'VE BEEN MENTIONED TURNOUT, TOO, AS A FACTOR AND THE FACT THAT THIS LAST-MINUTE REVELATION MAY MOTIVATE PEOPLE TO GET OUT. BUT, DAVID, DID YOU SEE TURNOUT AS BEING A FACTOR FAVORING ONE PARTY OR THE OTHER?

Yepsen: WELL, I'M FROM THE SCHOOL THAT SAYS A BIG TURNOUT HELPS DEMOCRATS. REPUBLICANS GENERALLY DO A BETTER JOB OF GETTING OUT THEIR BASE VOTE, AND I THINK A GOOD TURNOUT WILL FAVOR DEMOCRATS. THEY'RE ALWAYS LESS INCLINED TO VOTE. I THINK THAT THE POLLING HERE IN IOWA IN THE CLOSING DAYS, IT DOESN'T MAKE THE STATE A TOSSUP. IT IS WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR. BUT IF YOU LOOK AT THE TREND LINES, BUSH IS CLEARLY GAINING. GORE MAY BE A POINT OR TWO AHEAD WITH BUSH CLOSING. IT FEELS A LOT LIKE THE VILSACK/LIGHTFOOT RACE. SO I THINK THE MOMENTUM HERE AT THE END GAME HAS GOT TO BE WITH BUSH.

Borg: BUT, JOYCE, AS FAR AS TURNOUT GOES -- WE DON'T KNOW WHAT THE WEATHER IS GOING TO BE, EVEN IF THAT IS A FACTOR ON TUESDAY -- BUT A LOT OF PEOPLE ALREADY HAVE CAST EARLY ABSENTEE OR VOTING STATION IN-PERSON BALLOTS.

Russell: MORE AND MORE. WITH EACH OF THE PAST ELECTIONS, WE'VE SEEN THE EARLY VOTING AND THE ABSENTEE VOTING ON THE RISE, AND THAT'S TRUE AGAIN THIS TIME. IT'S GROWING. IN FACT, WHEN WE'RE OUT TALKING TO VOTERS, I'VE LEARNED THAT YOU CAN'T SAY WHO ARE YOU "GOING TO" VOTE FOR BECAUSE SO MANY PEOPLE HAVE COME BACK AND SAID, "I HAVE ALREADY VOTED FOR."

Borg: KAY, HOW DO YOU SEE THIS EXPERIMENT THAT'S GOING ON OUT IN THE NORTHWEST, OREGON AND WASHINGTON, WITH THE MAIL BALLOTS? IS THAT GOING TO CATCH ON NATIONWIDE AND PERHAPS HERE IN IOWA? CHET CULVER IS A BIG PROPONENT, SECRETARY OF STATE, IN GETTING OUT THE VOTE.

Henderson: IT DEPENDS ON WHAT THE OUTCOME OF THAT ELECTION IS. IF IT'S SHOWN THAT ONE PARTY CLEARLY WAS PREDOMINATING IN THAT ELECTION MERELY BECAUSE OF THE FACT OF THE MAIL-IN BALLOT, I THINK OPPOSING PARTIES IN STATES ALL AROUND THE COUNTRY ARE GOING TO HAVE A PROBLEM WITH IT. THIS IS NOTHING NEW AND PARTIES HAVE RESISTED THIS FOR ELECTION AFTER ELECTION, THE IDEA OF EXPANDING THE VOTER BASE, BECAUSE THEY HAVE BEEN DOING THIS SORT OF EXPERIMENT. KANSAS EXPERIMENTED WITH IT, I THINK, A DECADE AGO, DAVID. THEY HAD WONDERFUL TURNOUT FOR SCHOOL BOARD ELECTIONS BECAUSE THEY HAD MAIL-IN BALLOTS. BUT POLITICIANS, THE PEOPLE WHO BENEFIT FROM THE PRESENT SYSTEM OF VOTING, ARE VERY RELUCTANT TO CHANGE IT.

Yepsen: THERE'S ONE THING, DEAN, THAT MAY PROMPT IOWA LAWMAKERS TO CONSIDER MAIL BALLOTS HERE IN IOWA, AND THAT'S COST. THESE ELECTIONS ARE EXPENSIVE TO RUN. IT'S DIFFICULT IN MANY COUNTIES TO GET ELECTION WORKERS NOWADAYS. SO IF THE EXPERIMENTS OUT IN OREGON AND WASHINGTON WITH MAIL-IN BALLOTS AND THAT KIND OF THING WORK, IF THEY DON'T APPEAR TO FAVOR ONE PARTY OR ANOTHER, THEN I THINK IT COULD HAVE THE POLITICIANS IN IOWA SAYING, WELL, LET'S GIVE THIS A TRY. MAYBE WE SHOULD DO SOMETHING LIKE THAT HERE. THE OTHER THING, DEAN, YOU MENTIONED SECRETARY OF STATE CHET CULVER, AND THAT MADE ME THINK OF HIS PROGRAM THAT HE HAD TO GET ALL THESE YOUNG PEOPLE TO VOTE. HE THOUGHT THIS WAS REALLY GREAT, AND HE'S A GOOD DEMOCRAT WORKING HARD FOR AL GORE. LO AND BEHOLD, THE IOWA HIGH SCHOOL CHILDREN VOTED FOR GEORGE W. BUSH BY 53 PERCENT. THAT TELLS YOU SOMETHING ABOUT WHERE THE ELECTORATE MIGHT BE.

Borg: AND, JOYCE, I WANTED TO MENTION THAT TOO. HE'S BROUGHT IT UP HERE, CHET CULVER'S MOCK ELECTION AMONG THE STUDENTS. DO YOU SEE THAT AS A HARBINGER OF WHAT GOES ON IN THE HOMES AND A LIKELY PREDICTOR OF WHAT'S LIKELY TO HAPPEN IN THE GENERAL ELECTION?

Russell: WELL, I SEE IT AS AN INDICATION THAT THOSE ARE PEOPLE, THEIR PARENTS ARE TALKING ABOUT THE ELECTION SO, YEAH, I SEE IT AS A POSSIBLE HARBINGER. NOT THAT THEY'RE GOING TO INFLUENCE THEIR PARENTS TO VOTE THE WAY THEY DID, BUT THE OTHER WAY AROUND, THEIR PARENTS ARE INFLUENCING THEM.

Henderson: WELL, THE RESULTS OF THIS MOCK ELECTION HAVE ENDED UP MOCKING CHET CULVER HIMSELF, BECAUSE THE DAY BEFORE THE BALLOTS WERE CAST, WHEN THESE 31,000 KIDS CAST THEIR VOTES, HE SAID, "THIS COULD BE A REAL HARBINGER OF WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN ON NOVEMBER 7." THEN HIS GUY LOSES AND SO HE HAS A LITTLE EGG ON HIS FACE.

Yepsen: DEAN,, IT'S FUNNY AND WE CAN ALL GET A GOOD CHUCKLE AT CHET CULVER'S EXPENSE HERE TODAY, BUT LET'S GIVE HIM SOME CREDIT FOR TRYING TO DO SOMETHING TO GET YOUNG PEOPLE TO PARTICIPATE. I MEAN, MY DAUGHTER WAS INVOLVED IN THAT, AND I SAW THAT THE EFFORT THAT THE SCHOOLS MADE IN THIS STATE TO GET YOUNG PEOPLE INVOLVED WORKED, IT PAID OFF. AND I THINK THAT'S IMPORTANT FOR OUR CIVIC DEMOCRACY.

Borg: DID CHET CULVER'S MOCK ELECTION GO? DID IT -- ON STUDENTS. DID THEY REALLY PAY ATTENTION TO ISSUES, DO YOU THINK?

Yepsen: WELL, THIS FORCED THEM TO. IF THE TEACHER IS UP THERE MAKING THEM DEBATE ISSUES AND THEN WE'RE GOING TO VOTE, I THINK FOR SOME OF THESE KIDS, IT WAS LIKE EDUCATION. THEY WERE FORCED TO DO SOME THINGS AND LEARN SOME THINGS. I THINK IT WAS VERY HEALTHY.

Henderson: AND WE TALKED TO A FEW OF THE KIDS WHO ACTUALLY CAST BALLOTS, AND THEY WERE TALKING ABOUT SPECIFIC ISSUES THAT THEY CARED ABOUT. IT WASN'T PRESCRIPTION DRUGS, I CAN TELL YOU THAT. BUT IT WAS CORE ISSUES LIKE ABORTION, ON WHICH THEY HAVE STRONG BELIEFS, AND THEY WERE DISCUSSING THAT IN THEIR CLASSROOM.

Yepsen: AND THEY CARE ABOUT THE NATIONAL DEBT BECAUSE THEY FIGURED OUT THEY'RE GOING TO GET TO PAY IT OFF.

Borg: THAT'S WHY I ASKED THE QUESTION AND IT'S SIGNIFICANT THAT THEY WERE CONSIDERING ISSUES. BUT LET'S TAKE THAT DISCUSSION INTO THE REAL ELECTION, JOYCE. WHAT ARE THE ISSUES ON WHICH IOWANS WILL DECIDE WHICH PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE TO VOTE FOR?

Russell: WELL, MEDICARE AND SOCIAL SECURITY REFORM HAVE BEEN ISSUES THAT THE CANDIDATES HAVE TALKED ABOUT WHILE THEY'RE HERE. TAX REFORM AND TAX CUTS HAVE GOTTEN SOME OF THE BIGGEST APPLAUSE LINES WHEN THE CANDIDATES HAVE BEEN HERE. AND BOTH OF THE CANDIDATES HAVE COME IN AND PICKED OUT IOWA FAMILIES AND GIVEN SPECIFICS. WHEN GEORGE BUSH WAS HERE THIS WEEK, HE HAD AN IOWA FAMILY, "THIS COUPLE WILL SAVE $3000 ON THEIR TAXES," AND VOTERS ARE RESPONDING TO THAT.

Borg: ANY OF THE REST OF YOU HAVE ANY COMMENT ON ISSUES? KAY?

Henderson: I HAD A DISCUSSION, AN INTERESTING DISCUSSION, ON WEDNESDAY OF THIS PAST WEEK WITH A WOMAN WHO HAD NOT CAST HER VOTE YET, AND SHE WAS TOTALLY UNDECIDED BECAUSE BOTH OF THE CANDIDATES WERE TALKING ABOUT THE SAME ISSUES. THEY'RE BOTH TALKING ABOUT PRESCRIPTION DRUGS. THEY'RE BOTH TALKING ABOUT MEDICARE. THEY'RE BOTH TALKING ABOUT TAX CUTS. SHE SAYS THEY'RE SO CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER, I CAN'T TELL THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEM. AND SO I DON'T THINK PEOPLE ARE VOTING ON ISSUES. MORE AND MORE PEOPLE TELL YOU THEY WATCHED THE CANDIDATES ON THE JAY LENO SHOW. THEY SAW THEIR APPEARANCE ON DAVID LETTERMAN. IT'S ALL ABOUT LIKABILITY, WHETHER THEY LIKE THIS PERSON AND WHETHER THEY THINK THAT THEY'RE COMFORTABLE WITH HIM BEING THE LEADER OF THE FREE WORLD.

Yepsen: I THINK THE ONE ISSUE, THOUGH -- I AGREE WITH THAT. I'M NOT SURE IF ISSUES ARE ALL THAT IMPORTANT PER SE -- NOT THAT MANY PEOPLE GO THROUGH A CHECKLIST -- IT'S HOW THEY FEEL ABOUT THE CANDIDATE. THE ONE ISSUE THAT I THINK WORKED AGAINST AL GORE IN THIS STATE IS CHARACTER AND BILL CLINTON. I THINK WATCHING REPUBLICANS WHO ARE VERY ENERGIZED BY THE PROSPECT OF GETTING RID OF THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION, I THINK IT HURTS AL GORE. HE SAYS, "I'M MY OWN MAN. I DON'T WANT BILL CLINTON AROUND ME. I'M TRYING TO DO MY OWN THING HERE." THAT IS A CHARACTER, INTEGRITY -- THAT IS AN ISSUE WITH A LOT OF VOTERS IN THIS ELECTION.

Obradovich: ANOTHER THING THAT PLAYS INTO THAT ISSUE DISCUSSION IS THAT I THINK A LOT OF VOTERS RECOGNIZE THAT WHEN THESE GUYS -- EITHER OF THEM GET IN OFFICE, IT'S GOING TO BE VERY DIFFICULT TO GET DONE ANY OF THE THINGS THEY SAID. CONGRESS IS GOING TO HAVE PROBABLY A RAZOR-THIN MARGIN. THERE'S NOT GOING TO BE A

CLEAR PARTY MAJORITY ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. SO ACTUALLY ACCOMPLISHING THE THINGS THEY SAY THEY'RE GOING TO DO IS GOING TO BE VERY, VERY DIFFICULT. SO YOU MIGHT AS WELL PICK THE PRESIDENCY ON WHO YOU LIKE.

Borg: SO WE'RE NOT LIKELY TO SEE A LAST-MINUTE BILL CLINTON VISIT TO IOWA?

Yepsen: I DOUBT IT.

Borg: JOYCE?

Russell: I AGREE THAT MORE PEOPLE MENTION -- I THINK THE THING THAT HAS ENERGIZED REPUBLICANS THE MOST ARE THE SCANDALS OF THE CLINTON PRESIDENCY, AND I THINK THAT REPUBLICANS WANT THE WHITE HOUSE MAYBE MORE THAN THE DEMOCRATS WANT IT. ALTHOUGH, I THINK AL GORE WANTS THAT WHITE HOUSE MORE THAN GEORGE BUSH WANTS IT. Borg: KATHIE, TALKING ABOUT ISSUES, ARE THERE SOME LOCAL ISSUES OR REGIONAL ISSUES THAT WOULD DRIVE VOTER TURNOUT IN CERTAIN PARTS OF IOWA OR PROVIDE COATTAILS IN REVERSE, DRIVE OUT A CERTAIN PART OF THE ELECTORATE, THAT WOULD INFLUENCE THE PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS IN IOWA?

Obradovich: THERE MAY BE A FEW REAL HOT LEGISLATIVE RACES AROUND THE STATE THAT WOULD DRIVE -- FOR THE MOST PART AROUND THE STATE, IT'S THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE THAT'S GOING TO DRIVE TURNOUT AS OPPOSED TO LOCAL RACES, YOU KNOW, GOING REVERSE COATTAILS LIKE YOU SAID. BUT THERE ARE SOME HOT LEGISLATIVE RACES AROUND THE STATE. ISSUES RANGING FROM TEACHER PAY, WHICH I THINK IS PROBABLY THE BIG LEGISLATIVE ISSUE VERSUS TAX CUTS. THERE ARE ISSUES DEALING WITH ENVIRONMENT, FARMING -- ALL THE KINDS OF ISSUES THAT YOU SEE IN EVERY LEGISLATIVE RACE. THERE'S A REAL CONCERTED EFFORT BY THE DEMOCRATS TO TRY AND IMPROVE THEIR PRESENCE AT THE STATEHOUSE, AND MAYBE TRY TO TAKE OVER THE HOUSE IS MORE IN PLAY THAN THE SENATE. SO I THINK YOU'RE SEEING SOME CONCERTED EFFORT AND SOME MONEY SPENT ON LEGISLATIVE RACES THAT COULD DRIVE SOME TURNOUT.

Borg: LET'S GO BACK TO THAT TEACHER PAY. YES, THAT IS A BIG STATE ISSUE, BUT ARE THERE ANY CANDIDATES WHO ARE DISAGREEING WITH THAT?

Obradovich: THEY'RE NOT REALLY NECESSARILY DISAGREEING ON THE ISSUE OF TEACHER PAY OR WHETHER IT'S AN ISSUE. I THINK BOTH PARTIES HAVE AGREED, FRANKLY, ON THIS SHOW, THAT IT'S GOING TO BE A BIG ISSUE IN THE LEGISLATURE. I THINK THE DIFFERENCES ARE MORE SUBTLE: HOW YOU'RE GOING TO GO ABOUT IT; HOW FAST YOU'RE GOING TO IMPLEMENT IT; WHETHER YOU'RE GOING TO BE ABLE TO DO TAX CUTS AT THE SAME TIME. I THINK THOSE ARE THE MORE SUBTLE ISSUES THERE.

Yepsen: I THOUGHT THE ISEA DID A DUMB POLITICAL THING IN THIS CAMPAIGN THAT WILL AFFECT THAT ISSUE. EVERYBODY IS FOR RAISING TEACHER PAY. SO WHAT DOES THE TEACHERS UNION DO BUT THEY GO OUT AND THEY ENDORSE 80 DEMOCRATS AND 8 REPUBLICANS. NOW, A LOT OF REPUBLICANS ARE GOING AROUND AND SAYING, WELL, WAIT A MINUTE, WE WERE "FOR" THIS. I THINK IF THE REPUBLICANS KEEP CONTROL OF THE LEGISLATURE, THE TEACHERS UNION IN THIS STATE WILL FIND THAT THAT PAY RAISE MAY BE A LITTLE SMALLER AND IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO PUT INTO EFFECT. Borg: KAY, YOU HAD A COMMENT.

Henderson: YOU TALK ABOUT REVERSED COATTAILS. ALL POLITICS IS LOCAL AS, YOU KNOW, THE FAMOUS WAGS ONCE SAID. I WAS ON A PANEL THE OTHER DAY WITH MIKE MAHAFFEY, WHO MANY PEOPLE KNOW IS A FORMER REPUBLICAN PARTY CHAIRMAN. HE LIVES IN POWESHIEK COUNTY NOW. HE WAS AT A FOOTBALL GAME, AND HE NOTICED THAT EVERYBODY WAS TALKING ABOUT THE LOCAL SHERIFF'S RACE AND NO ONE WAS TALKING ABOUT THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE. SO REALLY, LOCAL RACES CAN TURN OUT VOTERS. BUT THE INTERESTING THING ABOUT THE REVERSE COATTAILS PHENOMENON IS THAT IF PEOPLE ARE INTERESTED IN A LOCAL RACE, MORE PEOPLE ARE INCLINED TO SPLIT THEIR TICKETS AND MORE PEOPLE ARE INCLINED NOT TO VOTE UP THE TICKET. IF THEY'RE JUST INTERESTED IN ONE RACE, THEY'RE GOING TO CAST ONE VOTE AND MAYBE NOT GO UP THE TICKET.

Borg: JOYCE, YOU SPENT A LOT OF TIME, IN FACT, YOU'RE ALMOST IN RESIDENCE OF COMMUTING DOWN TO THE STATEHOUSE DURING THE LEGISLATIVE SESSION. ARE THERE CERTAIN LEGISLATORS WHO ARE IN PARTICULAR TROUBLE THAT YOU WOULD LIKE TO COMMENT -- OR TIGHT RACES AT LEAST THIS TIME, NOT TROUBLES.

Russell: THERE ARE A NUMBER OF TIGHT RACES AND RACES THAT THE VARIOUS PARTIES ARE TARGETING. THE LEADERS, SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY -- MINORITY LEADER IN THE HOUSE, DAVID SCHRADER, AND MINORITY LEADER IN THE SENATE, MICHAEL GRONSTAL. REPUBLICANS ARE TARGETING THEM IN PART BECAUSE THAT KEEPS THE LEADERS IN THEIR HOME DISTRICT CAMPAIGNING RATHER THAN OUT HELPING SOME OF THE OTHERS. THERE'S SOME OTHER CLOSE RACES. A VERY INTERESTING RACE IN DES MOINES WITH A LONG-TIME DEMOCRAT HOUSE MEMBER JACK HOLVACK RUNNING FOR AN OPEN SENATE SEAT, ELAINE SZYMONIAK'S SEAT IN THE SENATE. RON LANGSTON, A BLACK REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE, THAT'S BEEN A VERY HARD FOUGHT RACE AND AN INTERESTING RACE TO WATCH.

Borg: KATHIE, YOU ALSO COVER THE LEGISLATURE. DO YOU SEE A REAL POSSIBILITY OF DEMOCRATIC CONTROL IN THE NEXT IOWA GENERAL ASSEMBLY?

Obradovich: I SEE A REAL POSSIBILITY THAT THEY'RE GOING TO BE ABLE TO SHRINK THE GAP BETWEEN REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS. I'M NOT NECESSARILY PREPARED TO PREDICT THAT THEY'RE GOING TO GO OVER THE TOP AND TAKE OVER THE MAJORITY BECAUSE, REALLY, A LOT -- ALMOST EVERYTHING HAS TO SWING THEIR WAY. THE NORMAL PLAY OF THINGS MIGHT SUGGEST THAT THEY'RE NOT GOING TO GET ALL THE WAY THERE, BUT I THINK THEY ARE GOING TO BE ABLE TO NARROW IT REALLY CLOSE. I THINK THEY'RE GOING TO BE ABLE TO PROBABLY PICK UP A COUPLE OF SEATS IN THE SENATE. SO IT WILL BE PROBABLY A LITTLE BIT DIFFERENT TONE IN THE LEGISLATURE NEXT YEAR.

Yepsen: REPUBLICANS HAVE A BIG INCUMBENCY ADVANTAGE IN THESE LEGISLATIVE RACES. THERE ARE MORE INCUMBENTS RUNNING AND, AS WE ALL KNOW, INCUMBENTS TEND TO GET REELECTED, SO THE EDGE IS WITH THE REPUBLICANS FOR KEEPING CONTROL. DEMOCRATS, I AGREE WITH KATHIE, WILL PROBABLY PICK UP A FEW SEATS. ONE OF THE INTERESTING DYNAMICS OF THIS ELECTION -- HE'S A BIT OF A WILDCARD -- IS GOVERNOR VILSACK. HE'S ENORMOUSLY POPULAR AND HE HAS WORKED VERY HARD TO ELECT DEMOCRATS. IT'S INTERESTING; HE ALMOST CAN'T WIN. I REMEMBER TERRY BRANSTAD WAS CRITICIZED FOR ALWAYS BEING IN IT FOR HIMSELF. HE NEVER HELPS US OUT. I MEAN REPUBLICANS WOULD COMPLAIN ABOUT THIS. AND NOW TOM VILSACK IS OUT THERE WORKING VERY HARD TO ELECT DEMOCRATS, AND YOU'VE GOT REPUBLICANS SAYING, "OH, HE'S BEING TOO PARTISAN." IF THE REPUBLICANS KEEP CONTROL OF THE LEGISLATURE, I EXPECT THE FAT WILL BE IN THE FIRE BECAUSE THEY'RE GOING TO SAY, "LOOK, GOVERNOR, YOU CAME AT US HARD, AND YOU DIDN'T MAKE IT. NOW WE'RE GOING TO PAINT A TARGET ON YOU FOR TWO YEARS, AND WE'RE GOING TO MAKE YOUR LIFE MISERABLE." SO I EXPECT THERE WILL BE A GREAT DEAL OF PARTISANSHIP IN THE NEXT LEGISLATURE AS A RESULT OF THIS ELECTION AND GOVERNOR VILSACK'S TACTICS.

Borg: JOYCE, ISN'T A VILSACK FACTOR IN THIS ELECTION, TOO, THE AMOUNT OF MONEY THAT THE DEMOCRATS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RAISE AND PULL INTO THE CAMPAIGN?

Russell: HE'S HELPING THEM RAISE MONEY. HE'S HELPING THEM WITH ADS. HE'S OUT ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL, BUT MONEY IS PART OF IT, SURE.

Obradovich: IT'S A BIG PART OF IT. IF FACT, IN OCTOBER WHEN THEY HAD TO FILE REPORTS, THE DEMOCRATS HAD MANAGED TO RAISE REALLY DOUBLE WHAT THEY RAISED IN '98. I THINK YOU SEE A BIG IMPACT THERE. IN THE SENATE, AS OF THE OCTOBER 19 DEADLINE, DEMOCRATS HAD ACTUALLY OUTSPENT REPUBLICANS IN SENATE RACES.

Henderson: AND THEY'RE USING A LITTLE BIT OF THE NEWT GINGRICH MODEL, WHEREBY NEWT GINGRICH SORT OF MADE THE CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION, WHEN REPUBLICANS TOOK CONTROL OF CONGRESS, SORT OF A NATIONAL ELECTION. DEMOCRATS HAVE TRIED TO HAVE CENTRAL CONTROL OF THIS CAMPAIGN, FOCUS ON A FEW ISSUES, REALLY CONTROL THE MESSAGE THAT THEIR CANDIDATES ARE USING ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL. SO IT'S INTERESTING THAT DEMOCRATS ARE EMPLOYING THAT.

Yepsen: DEAN, THERE IS REALLY AN OBSCENE AMOUNT OF MONEY BEING SPENT IN THE BATTLE FOR THE LEGISLATURE. YOU REACH A POINT IN A CAMPAIGN WHERE YOU CAN'T -- IT DOESN'T DO YOU THAT MUCH GOOD. SOME OF THESE TV ADS WE'RE SEEING FOR LEGISLATIVE RACES, THAT'S A WASTE OF MONEY. I THINK ALL THE POLITICIANS SAY, "OH, IT'S TERRIBLE WE HAVE TO SPEND ALL THIS MONEY." YET THEY GO OUT AND THEY CONTINUE TO RAISE OBSCENE AMOUNTS OF IT FROM A LOT OF SPECIAL INTERESTS. AND, DEAN, IN THIS ELECTION YOU COULD PUT A "FOR SALE" SIGN AT THE FRONT OF THE STATE CAPITOL.

Borg: WELL, WHAT ABOUT THE CONGRESSIONAL RACES? MUCH MONEY BEING SPENT THERE? I'LL ASK YOU FIRST, DAVE?

Yepsen: WHAT CONGRESSIONAL RACES? [LAUGHTER] THAT'S PRETTY HARSH ON THE CHALLENGERS, BUT THE FACT IS THAT FIVE INCUMBENTS ARE HEAVILY FAVORED TO WIN REELECTION. THE REELECT ON CONGRESSIONAL INCUMBENTS IS ABOUT 98 PERCENT. ONE OF THE THINGS THAT'S HAPPENED IN THIS CONGRESSIONAL RACE IS EVERYBODY IS WAITING FOR 2002. IN 2002 WE HAVE NEW DISTRICTS, REDRAWN LINES, AND SO A LOT OF REALLY GOOD, HEAVYWEIGHT CREDIBLE CANDIDATES ARE SORT OF SITTING BACK WAITING AND SAYING MAYBE I'M GOING TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THOSE LINES LOOK IN TWO YEARS. ONE GUY TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS MIKE HUSTON AGAINST GREG GANSKE. HE MAY NOT BEAT GREG GANSKE THIS TIME, BUT HE'LL BE A FRONT-RUNNER IN TWO YEARS, IN 2002, WHEN PRESUMABLY GREG GANSKE IS RUNNING FOR CONGRESS AND THAT SEAT IS WIDE OPEN.

Borg: JOYCE, ISN'T THAT SORT OF INTERESTING, THOUGH, THAT IOWA IS CONSIDERED IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION A TOSS-UP STATE, AND YET WE HAVE A REPUBLICAN DOMINATED CONGRESSIONAL DELEGATION. AND YET, DAVE TELLS ME THAT THERE REALLY ISN'T MUCH OF A RACE IN THE CONGRESSIONAL CAMPAIGNS. AREN'T THOSE ISSUES THAT DRIVE THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION TRANSLATING IN THE CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION?

Russell:, WELL, I THINK THAT THE POWER OF THE INCUMBENCY IS AT WORK THERE MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE AND SHEER NAME RECOGNITION FOR MANY OF THOSE CANDIDATES.

Henderson: PLUS NONE OF THE NATIONAL PARTIES HAVE WEIGHED IN ON ANY OF THESE CASES. NONE OF THESE ARE TARGETED RACES BY THE REPUBLICAN OR THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY NATIONWIDE. THEY ARE SORT OF -- BOTH PARTIES ARE WRITING OFF THE CHALLENGERS.

Obradovich: IT WILL BE INTERESTING IN TWO YEARS IF, IN FACT, THE DEMOCRATS TAKE OVER THE HOUSE AND IOWA SUDDENLY HAS NO CLOUT WHATSOEVER, NO CONGRESSMEN IN THE MAJORITY OR JUST ONE. THAT COULD HAVE AN IMPACT IN TWO YEARS AS WELL.

Yepsen: NOT ONLY THAT, NOT ONLY DO YOU REDRAW THE LINES BUT YOU COULD HAVE A COUPLE OF VACANCIES HERE IN IOWA. TOM LATHAM IS TALKING ABOUT RUNNING FOR THE U.S. SENATE. GREG GANSKE IS TALKING ABOUT RUNNING FOR THE U.S. SENATE. LEONARD BOSWELL IS ALWAYS TALKING HE'S GOING TO RETIRE. JIM LEACH, EVERY TWO YEARS HE'S GOING TO --

SOMEBODY SAYS HE'S GOING TO RETIRE.

Henderson: IF BUSH WINS, HE MIGHT GET A JOB IN A BUSH ADMINISTRATION.

Yepsen: EXACTLY. WE GO FROM ALMOST NO RACES THIS TIME TO A HUGE CONGRESSIONAL FIGHT IN THE STATE IN TWO YEARS.

Borg: LET'S GO BACK AND JUST TAKE AN OVERVIEW. IOWA HAS BEEN IN PLAY HERE. WE TALK ABOUT IOWA BEING IN PLAY IN THIS NEXT TUESDAY'S ELECTION, BUT IOWA'S BEEN IN PLAY NOW FOR MORE THAN FOUR YEARS IN THIS ELECTION CYCLE. ARE THERE LESSONS THAT ANY OF YOU CAN LOOK BACK AND SAY THE POLITICAL PARTIES, DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS, THE MAJOR PARTIES IN IOWA, OUGHT TO TAKE SOME LESSONS FROM WHAT HAS HAPPENED OVER THE PAST FOUR, FIVE, EVEN SIX YEARS IN THIS CYCLE?

Yepsen: I'LL GIVE YOU ONE: I THINK THE CAUCUSES HAVE TO BE CHANGED. IF WE'RE GOING TO KEEP THE PRECINCT CAUCUSES -- YOU MENTIONED THIS HAS GONE ON FOR FOUR YEARS -- I THINK BOTH PARTIES HAVE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IN HOW THEY RUN THEIR CAUCUSES. REPUBLICANS MAY WANT TO THINK ABOUT GETTING RID OF THAT STRAW POLL. THERE WAS A LOT OF CONTROVERSY ABOUT IOWA GETTING TWO BITES AT THE APPLE, IF YOU WILL. I THINK DEMOCRATS MAYBE WANT TO GO TO ONE PERSON, ONE VOTE. THERE'S TALK ABOUT CHANGING THE CAUCUS DAY TO A SATURDAY INSTEAD OF A MONDAY. SO BOTH PARTIES HAVE GOT SOME LESSONS TO LEARN ABOUT THE WAY THEY RAN THEIR CAUCUSES, DEAN. Obradovich: I AGREE ABOUT THE CAUCUSES. I THINK THE AMOUNT OF MONEY THAT WAS SPENT IN THE CAUCUS PROCESS WAS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THAT STRAW POLL. AGAIN, THEY LOOK AT THE CAUCUSES AS BEING A GREAT PARTY-BUILDING PROCESS. BUT AS THE NUMBER OF NONPARTISAN-RELATED VOTERS CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND THE PARTIES START TO BE MARGINALIZED, I THINK THEY MIGHT WANT TO LOOK AT SOMETHING THAT BRINGS MORE VOTERS INTO THE PROCESS.

Borg: THE OBSERVATION THAT I WOULD HAVE IS THAT NEW HAMPSHIRE AND IOWA GOT A LOT OF ATTENTION WITH PRIMARY AND CAUCUSES WAY UP FRONT. BUT HARDLY ANYBODY IS PAYING ATTENTION TO NEW HAMPSHIRE RIGHT NOW. IOWA IS GETTING THE ATTENTION.

Yepsen: WELL, IT TOO IS A TOSS-UP STATE, BUT YOU'VE GOT TO REFUEL AIRPLANES SOMEWHERE AS YOU TRAVEL ACROSS THE COUNTRY. AND IT'S AWFUL EASY TO DROP DOWN SOMEPLACE IN IOWA AND DO THAT THAN IT IS TO GO UP TO MANCHESTER.

Borg: HAS ANYBODY FIGURED OUT HOW MANY DAYS UNTIL THE IOWA CAUCUSES OF 2004?

Russell: 1,180. [LAUGHTER]

Yepsen: BUT I HEARD THEY'RE GOING TO CHANGE THE DATE. [LAUGHTER]

Borg: WHAT DOES THAT SAY? DOES THAT SAY THAT AFTER NEXT TUESDAY WE'RE GOING TO BE RIGHT BACK IN THE PROCESS AGAIN?

Henderson: I PREDICT ON WEDNESDAY, STEVE FORBES WILL GIVE ME A CALL. [LAUGHTER]

Russell: GARY BAUER.

Henderson: EXACTLY.

Yepsen: WELL, DEAN, WE HAVE SEEN PEOPLE COMING THROUGH THIS STATE IN BOTH PARTIES DOING SURROGATE CAMPAIGNING, AND WE'VE ALL LEARNED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE VISITORS WHO COME IN HERE, BECAUSE THEY'RE NOT JUST COMING IN HERE FOR GORE OR FOR BUSH. JOHN EDWARDS OF NORTH CAROLINA WAS OUT HERE, JOHN KERRY OF MASSACHUSETTS, BOB KERREY OF NEBRASKA.

Obradovich: EVEN IF THE CAUCUSES DON'T START ON WEDNESDAY, YOU CAN BET THAT PEOPLE ARE ALREADY STARTING TO THINK ABOUT THAT ELECTION IN TWO YEARS... THE GUBERNATORIAL RACE AND ALL THOSE CONGRESSIONAL RACES. Borg: BUT FIRST THINGS FIRST: TUESDAY, ELECTION DAY, WILL DETERMINE A LOT ABOUT WHAT WE TALK ABOUT HERE NEXT SUNDAY. ON OUR NEXT EDITION OF IOWA PRESS, THE FOCUS SHIFTS FROM THE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT TO ELECTION ASSESSMENT, AND WE'LL CONVENE SOME OF OUR SAME REPORTERS HERE TO CONSIDER THOSE RESULTS AND IMPLICATIONS OF THE GENERAL ELECTION OF 2000. AIRTIME AT NOON AND 7:00 NEXT WEEK. I HOPE YOU'LL WATCH. AND WE LEAVE YOU THIS SUNDAY WITH TWO PROGRAM REMINDERS. IOWA PUBLIC TELEVISION CONTINUES ELECTION COVERAGE TOMORROW NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT. TOMORROW NIGHT AT 9:00, IOWA PUBLIC TELEVISION PRESENTS REBROADCAST OF THE FRONTLINE SPECIAL PROFILING THE TWO MAJOR-PARTY CONTENDERS, VICE PRESIDENT AL GORE AND TEXAS GOVERNOR GEORGE W. BUSH. PETER BOYER NARRATING THAT BIOGRAPHICAL SPECIFIC AT 9:00 TOMORROW NIGHT. ON ELECTION NIGHT 2000, A NEWSHOUR SPECIAL REPORT PRESENTING EXTENDED COVERAGE WITH THE NEWSHOUR'S SENIOR CORRESPONDENTS: GWEN IFEL, RAY SUAREZ, AND MARGARET WARNER. THAT'S TUESDAY NIGHT AT 9:00. IT'S GOING TO BE A BUSY WEEK HERE ON IOWA PUBLIC TELEVISION. YOU CAN KEEP UP WITH US ON THE WORLDWIDE WEB. HERE'S THE ADDRESS: WWW.IOWAPRESS.IPTV.ORG. THAT'S THIS WEEK'S EDITION OF IOWA PRESS. I'M DEAN BORG. THANKS FOR JOINING US TODAY. FUNDING FOR IOWA PRESS HAS BEEN PROVIDED BY FRIENDS OF IOWA PUBLIC TELEVISION; BY THE IOWA BANKERS ASSOCIATION... FOR PERSONAL, BUSINESS, AND COMMERCIAL NEEDS, IOWA BANKS HELP IOWANS REACH THEIR FINANCIAL GOALS; AND BY THE ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS AND INDUSTRY, THE VOICE OF IOWA BUSINESS, REPRESENTING THE INTERESTS OF OVER 1,500 IOWA BUSINESSES EMPLOYING 300,000 IOWANS.