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Iowa Press #2850
August 19, 2001

Borg: WITH LESS THAN 15-MONTH'S TIME REMAINING UNTIL THE GENERAL ELECTION OF NOVEMBER 2002, THE CAMPAIGN IS WELL UNDERWAY. STATEHOUSE POLITICAL REPORTERS REVIEW THE ISSUES AND THE CANDIDATES EXPECTED TO CONFRONT THOSE ISSUES ON THIS EDITION OF "IOWA PRESS."

Narrator: FUNDING FOR "IOWA PRESS" WAS PROVIDED BY FRIENDS OF IOWA PUBLIC TELEVISION; AND BY THE IOWA BANKERS ASSOCIATION... FOR PERSONAL, BUSINESS, AND COMMERCIAL NEEDS, IOWA BANKS HELP IOWANS REACH THEIR FINANCIAL GOALS.

THIS IS THE SUNDAY, AUGUST 19 EDITION OF "IOWA PRESS." HERE IS DEAN BORG.

Borg: THE CENSUS OF 2000 WAS THE CATALYST THAT HAS BROUGHT A NEW LOOK TO IOWA'S POLITICAL LANDSCAPE. BASED ON POPULATION SHIFTS, REDISTRICTING APPROVED BY THE IOWA GENERAL ASSEMBLY, SIGNED INTO LAW BY GOVERNOR TOM VILSACK, HAS RE-MAPPED IOWA'S POLITICAL DISTRICTS FOR THE NEXT TEN YEARS. IN THE U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, IOWA'S FIVE CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS HAVE BEEN RESHAPED, CAUSING TWO INCUMBENTS TO CALL A MOVING VAN. IOWA'S DELEGATION IN CONGRESS HAS A 5:2 REPUBLICAN ADVANTAGE OVER THE DEMOCRATS, INCLUDING A 4:1 ADVANTAGE IN THE U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES. REPRESENTATION IN BOTH THE IOWA HOUSE AND THE IOWA SENATE HAS BEEN REDISTRICTED TOO, GIVING DEMOCRATS HOPE IN CHIPPING AWAY AT THE CURRENT SOLID MAJORITY REPUBLICANS NOW HOLD. DESPITE THE NEW LOOK IN THE FEDERAL AND STATE ELECTORAL MAPS, THE CAMPAIGN ISSUES LOOK TO BE FAMILIAR. AND TODAY WE GATHER TO LOOK AT THE CANDIDATE MATCH-UPS AND TO REVIEW THE ISSUES EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE CAMPAIGN AGENDA. WE'LL GET INSIGHT FROM DAVID YEPSEN OF "THE DES MOINES REGISTER"; KAY HENDERSON OF "RADIO IOWA"; MIKE GLOVER OF "THE ASSOCIATED PRESS"; AND KATHIE OBRADOVICH OF "THE LEE NEWSPAPERS." KATHIE, I WANT TO ASK YOU: IS THE GOVERNOR'S RACE SOLID NOW AGAIN? DAN GABLE SAID HE'S NOT RUNNING, SO ARE THE CANDIDATES IN PLACE THAT ARE GOING TO BE CONTENDING?

Obradovich: WELL, I WOULDN'T PREDICT WITH A YEAR AND A HALF TO GO THAT SOMEBODY ELSE MIGHT NOT STEP FORWARD FROM THE REPUBLICAN SIDE. I WOULD GUESS THAT THE REPUBLICANS ARE STILL MAYBE LOOKING FOR SOMEBODY WHO WOULD BRING THE KIND OF NAME RECOGNITION THAT DAN GABLE DID. BUT WE'RE CERTAINLY NOT REALLY HEARING VERY MUCH ABOUT ANYBODY WHO'S WILLING TO STEP FORWARD. RIGHT NOW WE'VE GOT STEVE SUKUP. HE IS SPEAKER PRO TEM OF THE IOWA HOUSE FROM NORTH CENTRAL IOWA.

Borg: REPUBLICAN.

Obradovich: REPUBLICAN. AND BOB VANDERPLAATS FROM SIOUX CITY, ANOTHER REPUBLICAN. AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT'S GOING TO BE THOSE TWO, AT LEAST FOR NOW.

Glover: DEAN, ONE OF THE THINGS THAT HAPPENED WHEN DAN GABLE GOT OUT OF THIS MULLING AROUND THE IDEA OF RUNNING FOR GOVERNOR, ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WE LOST WAS SOMETHING CALLED INTEREST. THE POLITICIANS WE HAVE IN THE RACE RIGHT NOW ARE VERY STANDARD, VERY TRADITIONAL POLITICIANS, AND DAN GABLE WOULD HAVE BROUGHT A LITTLE BIT OF SOMETHING OFF THE WALL, A LITTLE EXCITEMENT, A LITTLE ELECTRICITY TO THAT RACE. DEMOCRATS SAY, "OH, WE WERE NEVER WORRIED ABOUT HIM. HE WOULDN'T HAVE BEEN A VERY GOOD CANDIDATE ANYWAY." THEY'RE WHISTLING PAST THE GRAVEYARD. THEY WERE SCARED TO DEATH HE WOULD, IN FACT, BE A PRETTY GOOD CANDIDATE.

Borg: BECAUSE THEY DIDN'T KNOW WHAT TO EXPECT.

Glover: NOBODY KNEW WHAT TO EXPECT. I DON'T THINK ANY OF US COULD SIT AT OUR TABLE AND SAY WHAT KIND OF A CANDIDATE DAN GABLE WOULD BE, BUT HE WOULD HAVE BROUGHT SOME INTEREST TO THE RACE. HE WOULD HAVE BROUGHT A REASON TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE RACE.

Borg: UNPREDICTABILITY.

Glover: ABSOLUTELY. AND UNPREDICTABILITY IS SOMETHING CALLED NEWS, WHICH IS WHAT WE'RE ALL IN THIS FOR.

Henderson: WELL, PERHAPS REPUBLICANS WILL NOW APPROACH HAYDEN FRY AND JOHNNY ORR. ANY OTHER RETIRED COACHES OUT THERE THEY COULD CONTACT? THEY REALLY ARE FLAILING AROUND FOR SOMEBODY.

Borg: WHY IS THAT, KAY? WHY ARE THEY FLAILING AROUND FOR SOMEBODY?

Henderson: BECAUSE THEY WANT SOMEONE WITH NAME RECOGNITION.

Borg: WHAT DOES THAT SAY TO THE TWO CANDIDATES THAT ARE ALREADY CONTENDING?

Henderson: "SORRY, CHARLIE." THEY ARE LOOKING FOR SOMEONE THAT CAN GO OUT THERE AND CARRY THE STANDARD BECAUSE THEY'RE LOOKING FOR SOMEONE IN A COMPETITIVE YEAR WHEN YOU HAVE TWO DEMOCRATS WHO ARE SEEKING REELECTION: TOM VILSACK AND TOM HARKIN... THE TWO TOMS. THEY WANT SOMEBODY CREDIBLE, SOMEBODY FLASHY AT THE OTHER SIDE OF THE TICKET TO ATTRACT VOTERS OUT.

Yepsen: I THINK REPUBLICAN LEADERS ARE STILL LOOKING AROUND FOR OTHER CANDIDATES. REPUBLICANS, FIRST OF ALL, HAVE GOT TO THINK THEY CAN BEAT TOM VILSACK, AND RIGHT NOW I DON'T THINK RANK AND FILE REPUBLICANS DO FEEL THEY CAN BEAT HIM. I MEAN, THEY DON'T LIKE HIM BUT THEY DON'T FEEL THEY COULD DEFEAT HIM, AND THAT'S THEIR FIRST PROBLEM. AND SECONDLY, LEADERS AREN'T LOOKING AROUND FOR OTHER CANDIDATES. THIS WHOLE DAN GABLE THING STARTED BECAUSE CHUCK LARSON, THE REPUBLICAN STATE CHAIRMAN, STARTED TALKING TO GABLE ABOUT GETTING IN THE RACE. AND WHAT DOES THAT SAY ABOUT WHEN THE STATE PARTY CHAIRMAN IS LOOKING FOR OTHER CANDIDATES? WHAT DOES THAT SAY ABOUT WHAT HE THINKS OF THE TWO EXISTING CANDIDATES IN THE RACE? SO THERE'S A LITTLE TENSION INSIDE THE PARTY OVER THAT. LONG TIME UNTIL MID-MARCH OF 2002 WHEN THE FILING DEADLINE IS. I THINK YOU COULD HAVE OTHER REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES GET INTO THIS THING. SENATE PRESIDENT MARY KRAMER IS TALKED ABOUT. A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE MENTIONING DOUG GROSS'S NAME AS SOMEBODY THEY WANT TO SEE GET IN THIS THING. SO REPUBLICAN POOH-BAHS ARE STILL LOOKING FOR SOMEONE.

Glover: AND I THINK THE PARTY LEADERS ARE MAKING A MISTAKE, FRANKLY. THEY'RE LOOKING AROUND FOR THE FLASHY, HOT NAME THAT INSTANTLY BRINGS NAME RECOGNITION TO THE CANDIDATE THAT COMES IN... A DAN GABLE, SOMEBODY LIKE THAT. YOU JOKED ABOUT HAYDEN FRY. I THINK THEY'RE MISREADING THE IOWA ELECTORATE. THE IOWA ELECTORATE TENDS TO LIKE PLODDERS. THE IOWA ELECTORATE ELECTED TERRY BRANSTAD FOR SIXTEEN YEARS. HE WAS CERTAINLY NO FLASH IN THE PAN. THE IOWA ELECTORATE ELECTED TOM VILSACK. HE'S A PLODDER. HE'S NO FLASH IN THE PAN. I THINK THEY'D BE BETTER OFF TAKING SOMEBODY LIKE A STEVE SUKUP, LETTING HIM GO OUT FOR 15 MONTHS AND SELL HIMSELF TO THE IOWA ELECTORATE; OR A BOB VANDERPLAATS, LET HIM GO OUT AND SELL HIMSELF TO THE IOWA ELECTORATE. I THINK IN THE LONG-RUN, THOSE ARE THE TYPE OF CANDIDATES WHO ARE GOING TO HAVE GREATER APPEAL TO VOTERS IN THE LAST WEEK WHEN THEY START FOCUSING.

Obradovich: I CAN'T HELP BUT REMEMBER THAT FOUR YEARS AGO OR THREE YEARS AGO, MOST OF US DIDN'T THINK ANYBODY KNEW WHO TOM VILSACK WAS EITHER AND THAT HE DIDN'T PROBABLY HAVE A CHANCE AT BEATING A FORMER CONGRESSMAN. SO, YOU KNOW, SOMEBODY LIKE A STEVE SUKUP, WHO HAS MADE A JOKE OUT OF HOW HE PRONOUNCES HIS NAME -- HE SAYS, "CALL ME STEVE"; -- OR BOB VANDERPLAATS, WHO IS A BUSINESSMAN UP IN SIOUX CITY AND INVOLVED IN HUMAN SERVICES... NOBODY KNOWS WHO THEY ARE RIGHT NOW, BUT NOBODY KNEW WHO TOM VILSACK WAS AT THIS POINT IN THE CAMPAIGN EITHER.

Yepsen: RIGHT. EVERYBODY THOUGHT VILSACK WAS A PICKLE, "VLASIC," AND LOOK HOW THAT CHANGED. I MEAN, PEOPLE LAUGH ABOUT STEVE SUKUP'S NAME, AND YET YOU GO INTO ANY BARNYARD IN THIS STATE, ANY FARMYARD, AND YOU'LL SEE A PIECE OF SUKUP EQUIPMENT THERE. THAT AIN'T BAD NAME ID. AND HAVING A DUTCH LAST NAME LIKE BOB VANDERPLAATS ISN'T ALL BAD IN A REPUBLICAN PRIMARY EITHER.

Borg: IF WE'RE TALKING ABOUT NAME RECOGNITION, IS THAT REALLY SAYING THAT IN THE GOVERNOR'S RACE, MIKE, THERE DON'T SEEM TO BE ANY ISSUES?

Glover: NOT AT THIS POINT, THERE ARE NO BIG ISSUES. THE STATE'S ECONOMY IS NOT GOING ALONG REAL GREAT, BUT IT'S NOT GOTTEN TO THE CRISIS POINT WHERE PEOPLE ARE WORRIED. IT'S NOT THE DEPRESSION OF THE 1980S. THERE ARE NO URGENT ISSUES POPPING TO THE SURFACE. THERE ARE NO BIG SCANDALS IN STATE GOVERNMENT. SO RIGHT NOW, NO, IT'S NOT AN ISSUE-DRIVEN PROCESS, IT'S A PERSONALITY-DRIVEN PROCESS.

Henderson: AND IOWANS DON'T TEND TO BLAME THEIR GOVERNOR WHEN THERE'S A DOWNTURN. TERRY BRANSTAD SUSTAINED HIS TERM OF OFFICE THROUGH THE DOWNTURN OF THE 1980S. THEY TEND TO BLAME THE FOLKS IN WASHINGTON BECAUSE THEY SEE IT AS A NATIONAL ECONOMY.

Yepsen: I THINK YOU ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME ISSUES TAKE SHAPE. YOU'LL SEE REPUBLICANS COME AT VILSACK ON THE STATE'S FINANCIAL CONDITION AND THE BUDGET. DEMOCRATS ARE ALWAYS VULNERABLE TO THE CHARGE THAT THEY CAN'T MANAGE MONEY AND THE STATE'S FINANCES ARE IN TROUBLE. SO THERE WILL BE A QUESTION ABOUT HOW MUCH OF THAT IS TOM VILSACK'S FAULT. AND I THINK THEY'RE GOING TO COME AT HIM AS BEING TOO LIBERAL. I MEAN, HE'S FLIRTED WITH GAY RIGHTS ISSUES. HE CERTAINLY FLIRTED WITH IMMIGRATION. HE'S BACKED OFF THAT BIG-TIME. BUT I THINK YOU'LL HEAR REPUBLICANS COME AT HIM ON ALL THREE OF THOSE ISSUES BEFORE THIS CAMPAIGN IS OVER.

Obradovich: THE BIG PROBLEM REPUBLICANS HAVE WITH THE BUDGET ISSUE, THOUGH, IS THAT THEY CONTROL THE LEGISLATURE AND THEY HAD TO APPROVE THE BUDGET. WE'VE ALREADY BEEN HEARING REPUBLICAN LEGISLATIVE LEADERS COME OUT AND SAY, YOU KNOW, THE STATE IS GOING TO NEED TO BORROW MONEY TO PAY ITS BILLS AND IT'S ALL GOVERNOR VILSACK'S FAULT. BUT THEN YOU SAY, "WELL, DIDN'T REPUBLICANS APPROVE THAT BUDGET." AT LEAST $35 MILLION OF THIS $50-MILLION SHORTFALL HAS GOT TO BE THEIR RESPONSIBILITY, AS WELL. SO THAT'S AN ISSUE THAT REALLY CUTS BOTH WAYS WHEN THEY CONTROL THE LEGISLATURE.

Borg: DID THE GOVERNOR REALLY BACK AWAY FROM THE IMMIGRATION? DAVE RAISED THAT AND I KNOW THAT THE POPULAR BELIEF IS THAT HE BACKED AWAY, AS DAVE SAID, BIG-TIME FROM THAT. BUT IS IT AN ISSUE THAT HE'S GOING TO BE ABLE TO SHAKE?

Henderson: NO. THERE ARE POCKETS OF PEOPLE IN THIS STATE WHO DON'T LIKE THE WAY THAT HE APPROACHED THE ISSUE, AND HE DID INDEED BACK AWAY. WHEN HE CREATED THESE MODEL COMMUNITIES, THEY WERE TO BE GIVEN $50,000 TO FIGURE OUT WAYS TO WELCOME AND ATTRACT IMMIGRANTS TO THEIR COMMUNITIES. NOW HE'S BACKED AWAY FROM THAT, AND THESE MODEL COMMUNITIES ARE MERELY LITTLE DISCUSSION GROUPS WHERE PEOPLE TALK ABOUT IMMIGRATION, NOT ACTIVELY GO OUT AND SEEK FOREIGN-BORN PEOPLE. IT'S NOT IMMIGRANTS FROM ILLINOIS AND NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA THAT HAVE PEOPLE WORRIED. IT'S IMMIGRANTS FROM MEXICO THAT HAVE PEOPLE WORRIED.

Yepsen: HE DOESN'T EVEN LIKE TO USE THE WORD IMMIGRANT; IT'S "NEWCOMER" IS THE PHRASE HE USES.

Obradovich: THE OPPONENTS ON THAT ISSUE HAVE REALLY SUCCEEDED TOO IN REALLY ESCALATING PEOPLE'S IDEA OF WHAT HE HAD IN MIND WHEN HE SAID WE WANTED TO RECRUIT NEWCOMERS TO IOWA. THEY'VE MADE IT SOUND LIKE HE WANTS TO BRING IN 300,000 IMMIGRANTS TO THE STATE. AND REALLY WHAT HE SAID IS THAT'S THE NUMBER OF JOBS WE NEED TO FILL SOMEHOW.

Glover: I THINK YOU CAN TALK ABOUT THE POLICY, YOU CAN TALK ABOUT WHETHER THIS IS A GOOD THING TO DO, THE RIGHT THING TO DO TO GROW THE STATE'S WORK FORCE. THERE ARE ARGUMENTS ON BOTH SIDES OF THAT ISSUE. THE POLITICS ARE LOUSY. AND FROM A POLITICAL STANDPOINT, HE GOOFED BIG-TIME BY WALKING INTO THIS IN THE FIRST PLACE.

Yepsen: WHERE HE GOOFED, I THINK, WAS THIS ALL STARTED WITH HIS STRATEGIC PLAN: WE NEED ATTRACT MORE WORKERS; EVERYBODY SAID THAT'S RIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, WE WERE HAVING THIS DEBATE IN IOWA OVER WHAT? MEATPACKING PLANTS. SO ALL OF A SUDDEN THOSE TWO ISSUES GOT STUCK TOGETHER AND THIS STARTED TO BECOME A DEBATE OVER LOW-WAGE LATINO IMMIGRANTS IN IOWA. AND THAT WAS JUST A BAD WAY TO START SHAPING THE ISSUE.

Borg: BUT, DAVE, IS IT ONE THAT REPUBLICANS DARE TO EXPLOIT?

Yepsen: OH, YEAH. I MEAN, THE POLLS SHOW THAT PEOPLE IN IOWA HATE IT, SO IN THE SHORT-TERM IT'S VERY SMART POLITICS. IN THE LONG-TERM IT'S VERY DUMB POLITICS FOR REPUBLICANS, BECAUSE THE LATINO ELECTORATE IS GROWING LEAPS AND BOUNDS IN THIS STATE. YOU'VE GOT PRESIDENT BUSH COURTING THEM. YOU'VE GOT SPEAKER NEWT GINGRICH, JACK KEMP, WHO ARE SAYING TO REPUBLICANS, "DON'T DEMAGOGUE ON THIS STUFF. IT'S DUMB POLITICS." YOU KNOW, AND THE REPUBLICANS 125 YEARS AGO DROVE THE IRISH OUT INTO THE DEMOCRAT PARTY WITH THEIR DEMAGOGUERY, AND I THINK THE REPUBLICANS ARE NOW STARTING TO DO THE SAME WITH LATINO AMERICANS. AND FOR THE REST OF OUR LIVES, WE ARE GOING TO SEE DEMOCRATS CONTINUING TO MAKE GAINS WITH LATINO VOTERS BECAUSE OF IT.

Henderson: AND HERE'S THE STARTLING STATISTIC: IN JUST A FEW YEARS, THERE WILL BE MORE LATINO VOTERS IN IOWA THAN THERE WILL BE ACTUAL FARMERS WHO ARE OF VOTING AGE.

Borg: LET'S GO TO THE SENATE RACE. TOM HARKIN IS UP FOR REELECTION NEXT YEAR. GREG GANSKE IS MAKING A BIG RUN AT THAT, MIKE GLOVER. GREG GANSKE, THOUGH, FIRST HAS TO GET THROUGH A PRIMARY. WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT THAT?

Glover: GREG GANSKE, A CONGRESSMAN FROM CENTRAL IOWA FACES A PRIMARY WITH BILL SALIER, A VERY CONSERVATIVE MAN WHO IS RUNNING TO MAKE HIS POINT THAT HE WANTS TO -- AS HE PUTS IT, HE'S RUNNING AGAINST LIBERALS. HE DOESN'T STAND MUCH OF A CHANCE. HE'S A POLITICAL NOVICE. HE'S A GADFLY; WON'T HAVE A LOT OF MONEY. GANSKE WILL HAVE THE HEFT OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY BEHIND HIM. PERHAPS THE ONLY INTERESTING THING ABOUT THAT PRIMARY WILL BE TO SEE IF SALIER CAN IN SOME QUARTERS BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY ENOUGH TO MAKE GANSKE KIND OF TRIM HIS SAILS BECAUSE, UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS CHALLENGES TO HARKIN, GANSKE IS TRYING VERY HARD TO CAST HIMSELF AS A MODERATE, NOT RUNNING AS A SOLID CONSERVATIVE AS HARKIN'S EARLIER OPPONENTS HAVE. NOW, WILL SALIER GET ENOUGH TRACTION TO FORCE GANSKE TO TRIM HIS SAILS A LITTLE BIT TO THE RIGHT? WELL, TOM HARKIN CERTAINLY HOPES SO. GREG GANSKE DOESN'T THINK SO. HIS HANDLERS SAY THERE WON'T BE ENOUGH THERE TO FORCE HIM TO MOVE. HE CAN CONTINUE TO BE A MODERATE AND NOT PAY THE PRICE IN A REPUBLICAN PRIMARY. THAT WILL BE THE INTERESTING DYNAMIC IN THAT RACE.

Borg: IT WAS A CLOSE RACE THE LAST TIME AROUND BETWEEN A CONSERVATIVE LIGHTFOOT AND HARKIN.

Yepsen: AND THE INTERESTING THING ABOUT HARKIN'S CAREER IS THAT HIS REELECTION MARGINS HAVE CONSISTENTLY DROPPED: FROM THE FIRST TIME HE WAS ELECTED IN 1984; AND THEN IT DROPPED A LITTLE BIT IN 1990; IT DROPPED EVEN MORE IN 1996. SO REPUBLICANS THINK THAT'S A GOOD SIGN. NOW, THERE ARE A WHOLE LOT OF OTHER REASONS WHY IT'S BAD: IT'S A BAD YEAR FOR THEM; HARKIN IS AN INCUMBENT WITH SOME SENIORITY. THE ONE THING THAT BILL SALIER DOES, I THINK, FOR GREG GANSKE IS HE MAKES HIM LOOK LIKE A MODERATE IN THE COURSE OF THAT PRIMARY. SO REPUBLICANS ARE GOING TO TRY TO COME AT TOM HARKIN FROM THE CENTER INSTEAD OF THE RIGHT. AND MAYBE IT WILL BE A COMBINATION THAT GETS HARKIN.

Obradovich: THAT'S SOMETHING THAT A LOT OF TRUE-BLUE CONSERVATIVES IN IOWA HAVE OFTEN SAID IS A BAD IDEA. THEY SAY IF WE MUSH DOWN OUR MESSAGE, IF WE TRY TO BE TOO MUCH LIKE THE DEMOCRATS, WE LOSE. AND SO BILL SALIER MIGHT BE ABLE TO GAIN A LITTLE BIT OF FOOTHOLD WITH PEOPLE WHO JUST THINK THAT RUNNING TO THE MIDDLE IS A BAD IDEA FOR THEIR PARTY.

Henderson: THAT ARGUMENT WOULD SELL WITH ME IF I WERE TO THINK THAT THOSE CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICANS ARE GOING TO END UP VOTING FOR TOM VILSACK. THE PEOPLE THAT THE REPUBLICANS HAVE TO CONCENTRATE ON ARE THOSE MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD PEOPLE WHO DECIDE ELECTIONS, WHO DON'T MAKE UP THEIR MINDS UNTIL THE LAST TEN DAYS BEFORE THE ELECTION.

Obradovich: BUT IN A PRIMARY, IT'S THE CONSERVATIVES WHO ARE DECIDING.

Yepsen: WELL, AND GREG GANSKE HAS GOT A LOT OF OTHER PROBLEMS TO WORRY ABOUT THAT ARE FAR GREATER THAN THEM. HE'S GOT TO COME UP WITH SOME SERIOUS MONEY TO BEAT HARKIN. NOBODY KNOWS HIM IN EASTERN IOWA WHERE TWO-THIRDS OF THE VOTES ARE. HE'S A CENTRAL IOWA CONGRESSMAN, AS MIKE MENTIONED. YOU GET INTO EASTERN IOWA AND HIS NAME ID ISN'T THAT GREAT. THE YEAR IS NOT GOING TO BE A GOOD ONE FOR REPUBLICANS. SO TOM HARKIN ALWAYS -- NEVER WINS VERY PRETTY, BUT HE ALWAYS WINS. SO I THINK YOU HAVE TO GIVE THE EDGE TO HARKIN.

Glover: HE'LL TELL YOU THAT HE'LL NEVER WIN AN ELECTION BY BIGGER THAN 53/47. IF HE GETS 53/47, HE CONSIDERS IT A LANDSLIDE. THE OTHER THING -- AND DAVE MAKES A GOOD POINT -- GREG GANSKE IS NOT WELL KNOWN IN OTHER PARTS OF THIS STATE OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL IOWA, AND HE'S NOT DOING A LOT TO CURE THAT. HE'S NOT SPENDING A LOT OF TIME ON THE ROAD IN OTHER PARTS OF THE STATE. AND I ASKED ONE OF HIS HANDLERS ABOUT THAT ON THE DAY THAT HE FORMALLY ANNOUNCED. I SAID, "WHAT ARE YOU DOING TO LOCK UP THESE OTHER FOUR CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS?" HE SAID, "WELL, WE'RE ANNOUNCING IN ALL FIVE." IT'S LIKE ONE VISIT WILL TAKE CARE OF YOUR NAME ID PROBLEMS. NO, YOU'VE GOT TO GO CAMP OUT IN EASTERN IOWA FOR A COUPLE OF MONTHS. DO 12 VISITS IN EACH TOWN AND THEN THEY'LL START TO LISTEN.

Borg: IT'S HARD TO DO THAT WHEN YOU'RE IN CONGRESS.

Glover: IT'S VERY DIFFICULT TO DO THAT WHILE YOU'RE IN CONGRESS. THAT'S ONE REASON WHY INCUMBENT CONGRESSMEN AND INCUMBENT SENATORS TEND TO GET REELECTED.

Yepsen: IT'S GOING TO BE INTERESTING TO WATCH HARKIN ON THIS FARM BILL. FOR THE FIRST -- HE'S CHAIRMAN OF THE AG COMMITTEE, SO THIS IS GOING TO BE THE HARKIN FARM BILL. HE'S NEVER HAD TO TAKE RESPONSIBILITY FOR A FARM BILL DURING HIS CAREER. HE'S ALWAYS BEEN ABLE TO VOTE AGAINST THE FARM BILL, AND THEN ANY FARMER THAT COMPLAINS TO HIM, HARKIN CAN SAY, "WELL, YOU KNOW, I VOTED AGAINST IT." NOW TOM HARKIN HAS GOT TO PRODUCE A FARM BILL. AND ALSO, I THINK THAT MAY PROVIDE HARKIN, THOUGH, WITH AN ADVANTAGE. UP TILL NOW ON THESE PREVIOUS RACES, HARKIN HAS LOST RURAL VOTES. NOW HE GOES INTO A RACE WHERE HE'S THE GUY WITH EXPERTISE ON RURAL ISSUES AND HE CAN SAY TO VOTERS, "GREG GANSKE IS A DES MOINES PHYSICIAN. I'M CHAIRMAN OF THE SENATE AG COMMITTEE. WHO DO YOU WANT IN WASHINGTON REPRESENTING YOU?"

Glover: DAVE JUST HIT ON ANOTHER GOOD POINT THERE, BECAUSE THAT'S ONE OF THE THINGS THAT HARKIN IS GOING TO ARGUE BIG-TIME IN THIS CAMPAIGN, IS IOWA NOW HAS A VERY SENIOR DELEGATION IN CONGRESS. CHUCK GRASSLEY IS A RANKING MEMBER OF THE SENATE FINANCE COMMITTEE AND A REAL PLAYER IN THE SENATE. TOM HARKIN CHAIRS THE AGRICULTURE COMMITTEE; HE CHAIRS THE BUDGET COMMITTEE THAT CONTROLS HEALTH, HUMAN RIGHTS SPENDING, AND EDUCATION SPENDING. HE'S GOING TO SAY YOU'VE GOT A SENIOR EXPERIENCED TEAM IN WASHINGTON; YOU SHOULDN'T FIRE THEM.

Borg: KAY, GREG GANSKE, THOUGH, IS WITH THE REPUBLICAN MAJORITY IN THE HOUSE, AND HE'S BEEN IDENTIFIED PROMINENTLY WITH THE PATIENT BILL OF RIGHTS. IS THAT GOING TO GIVE HIM ENOUGH STATURE?

Henderson: HE AND HARKIN HAVE NO DIFFERENCE ON THE -- NO DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCE ON THE PATIENTS BILL OF RIGHTS, SOMETHING THAT DEMOCRATS ARE GOING TO BE HAMMERING ACROSS THE COUNTRY. HARKIN WON'T BE ABLE TO USE THAT AS A WEDGE BETWEEN THE TWO OF THEM. SO I DON'T THINK THAT'S GOING TO BE A BIG ISSUE IN THE RACE AT ALL.

Glover: IF I COULD TAKE A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TACK, IT MIGHT BE. THE HOUSE AND THE SENATE HAVE PASSED DIFFERENT VERSIONS OF THE PATIENTS BILL OF RIGHTS. THE HOUSE HAS PASSED A MUCH MORE RESTRICTIVE PATIENTS BILL OF RIGHTS THAN GREG GANSKE ASKED FOR, BUT GREG GANSKE VOTED FOR IT. IN THE END HE MAY HAVE THROWN THAT ISSUE AWAY.

Borg: HOW MUCH, MIKE, CAN PRESIDENT BUSH HELP GREG GANSKE?

Glover: A LOT. HE'LL BE HERE. PRESIDENT BUSH HAS GOT HIS OWN REASONS FOR BEING HERE, BUT HE'LL BE HERE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MONEY. HIS APPROVAL RATINGS ARE PRETTY GOOD FOR A PRESIDENCY AT THIS POINT. HE CAN HELP GREG GANSKE RAISE A LOT OF MONEY. HE CAN HELP GREG GANSKE WITH A LOT OF ATTENTION. YEAH, YOU'RE GOING TO SEE AIR FORCE ONE FLYING INTO IOWA A FAIR AMOUNT, AND YOU'RE GOING TO SEE GREG GANSKE ON IT.

Borg: IN CONGRESS, LET'S GO THROUGH THE CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS. LET'S GO OVER TO EASTERN IOWA FIRST, KATHIE, IN THE FIRST DISTRICT.

Obradovich: AS YOU MENTIONED, CONGRESSMAN JIM LEACH, WHO USED TO BE IN THE FIRST DISTRICT, IS ONE OF THOSE WHO HAS A MOVING VAN READY TO GO. HE HAS MOVED TO IOWA CITY -- OR HE WILL BE MOVING TO IOWA CITY. HE'S PURCHASED A HOUSE THERE. AND SO HE'S GOING TO NOT BE FACING JIM NUSSLE IN A REPUBLICAN PRIMARY. RIGHT NOW NUSSLE IS OUT THERE BY HIMSELF. WE HAVEN'T SEEN A DEMOCRATIC OPPOSITION SURFACE, BUT THERE'S SOME POSSIBLE CONTENDERS, INCLUDING BETTENDORF MAYOR ANN HUTCHINSON, WHO MAY SWITCH PARTIES TO RUN AGAINST HIM.

Borg: ON THE SCREEN RIGHT NOW WE ARE SHOWING THE NEW CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS, AND THAT FIRST DISTRICT IS REALLY WHERE THE OLD SECOND USED TO BE. SO THAT'S WHY JIM NUSSLE, WHO IS FROM MANCHESTER, IS THE INCUMBENT THERE.

Obradovich: A LOT OF THAT DISTRICT HE HAS REPRESENTED BEFORE AND CERTAINLY CAN BE CALLED THE INCUMBENT WITHOUT ANY KIND OF RESERVATION THERE. IN THE SECOND, LIKE I SAID --

Borg: WELL, LET'S GO -- WHO, MIKE GLOVER, MIGHT BE A CONTENDER, DEMOCRATIC SIDE THERE? ANY NAMES FLOATED --

Glover: IN THE SECOND DISTRICT?

Borg: YES. WELL, IN THE FIRST DISTRICT.

Glover: WELL, IN THE FIRST DISTRICT, ANN HUTCHINSON, THE MAYOR OF BETTENDORF, AS KATHIE SAID, IS TALKING ABOUT RUNNING. I THINK SHE PROBABLY WILL. DAVE NAGEL, THE FORMER STATE PARTY CHAIRMAN AND FORMER CONGRESSMAN, HAS MADE SOME NOISES ABOUT RUNNING. WE DON'T SEE WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN THERE. SO THOSE TWO HAVE BOTH TALKED ABOUT RUNNING ON THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE.

Borg: AND THEN WE'LL GO TO THE SECOND DISTRICT.

Glover: IN THE SECOND DISTRICT, WE'VE GOT JIM LEACH, AS KATHIE MENTIONED, HAS MOVED OVER THERE. THERE'S BEEN A CURIOUS LACK OF ACTIVITY. THE DEMOCRATS PRESSURED LEONARD BOSWELL TO MOVE INTO THE DISTRICT TO CHALLENGE LEACH. THE DEMOCRATS PRESSURED MIKE MORELAND, THE FORMER STATE LEGISLATOR FROM DOWN IN OTTUMWA, TO RUN. HE DECIDED NOT TO. THE DEMOCRATS PRESSURED DICK MYERS, THE DEMOCRATIC LEADER OF THE STATEHOUSE, TO RUN. HE DECLINED. IT'S THE MOST DEMOCRATIC OF ALL THE CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS, AND THEY SEEM TO BE HAVING TROUBLE COMING UP WITH A CANDIDATE.

Borg: WHY IS THAT?

Glover: WELL, LEACH IS GOING TO BE A TOUGH CANDIDATE. LEACH IS A LEADING MODERATE. HE SELLS WELL IN DEMOCRATIC PLACES LIKE JOHNSON COUNTY; HOWEVER, HE HAS VULNERABILITY. HE DOESN'T TAKE PAC MONEY. HE'S RUNNING IN A DEMOCRATIC DISTRICT, SO I THINK IT COULD BE A COMPETITIVE RACE OVER THERE IF THEY FIND A STRONG CANDIDATE. WE HEAR OF CANDIDATES LIKE JOHN WHITAKER, THE FARMERS UNION. THEY DON'T STRIKE ME AS THE TYPE OF CANDIDATE THAT COULD TAKE ON A VETERAN INCUMBENT LIKE LEACH AND TAKE HIM DOWN.

Yepsen: THE PROBLEM DEMOCRATS HAVE IN THAT DISTRICT IS THERE ARE TWO BASIC KINDS OF DEMOCRATS IN THE DISTRICT. YOU'VE GOT LIBERALS WHO LIVE IN JOHNSON COUNTY AND IN LINN COUNTY TO THE NORTH; AND THEN YOU'VE GOT THE OLD YELLOW DOG DEMOCRAT, THE CONSERVATIVE DEMOCRAT, WHO LIVES IN THE MORE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE DISTRICT. AND SO SOME DEMOCRATS APPEAL TO ONE TYPE AND NOT THE OTHER, AND THEY'VE GOT TO FIND A CANDIDATE WHO CAN APPEAL TO BOTH. THE MOST INTERESTING NAME I'VE HEARD IN THAT RACE WAS FIRST LADY CHRISTIE VILSACK. I DON'T THINK THAT BALLOON WENT ANYWHERE, BUT WE'VE CERTAINLY SEEN IN AMERICAN POLITICS TODAY -- HILARY CLINTON PROVED YOU CAN TAKE A FIRST-LADY POSITION AND RIDE IT INTO HIGH PUBLIC OFFICE.

Glover: TO BE FAIR, THE DEMOCRATS SAY, "OH, IT'S 15 MONTHS UNTIL THE ELECTION. THERE'S PLENTY OF TIME FOR SOMEBODY'S NAME TO FOCUS. IT'S A GOOD DISTRICT FOR US. WE'LL FIND A COMPETITIVE CANDIDATE." I'LL TELL YOU WHO'S INTERESTED IN THIS IS TOM VILSACK AND TOM HARKIN. THEY NEED A STRONG DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE IN THAT DISTRICT TO TURN OUT THAT DEMOCRAT BASE -- IN FACT, BOTH THOSE DEMOCRATIC BASES.

Yepsen: AND I THINK DEMOCRATS IN THAT DISTRICT HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF THE PROBLEM THAT REPUBLICANS DO IN THE RACE FOR GOVERNOR: THEY'RE NOT CONVINCED THEY CAN BEAT JIM LEACH. BUT YOU'RE RIGHT, MIKE, THEY NEED A HUGE TURNOUT DOWN THERE.

Borg: IN THE THIRD DISTRICT, THAT'S WHERE THE MOVING VAN IS COMING IN AGAIN, KAY.

Henderson: LEONARD BOSWELL, WHO'S BEEN REPRESENTING A VERY STRANGE DISTRICT, IS MOVING FROM DAVIS CITY IN SOUTHERN IOWA TO DES MOINES. HE IS GOING TO FACE A PRIMARY CHALLENGE FROM MATT MCCOY, WHO IS THE STATE SENATOR FROM THE SOUTH SIDE OF DES MOINES. ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE, YOU HAVE STATE AUDITOR RICHARD JOHNSON, WHO IS RUNNING AGAINST STAN THOMPSON, AND THAT'S AN INTERESTING RACE ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE BECAUSE MR. JOHNSON HASN'T BEEN QUITE AS ACTIVE AS MR. THOMPSON HAS, AND THAT'S ODD. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THAT TURNS OUT. MR. MCCOY ISN'T GIVEN MUCH OF A CHANCE ON THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE OF KNOCKING OFF AN INCUMBENT CONGRESSMAN WHO HAS PEOPLE LIKE DICK GEPHARDT COMING IN AND RAISING MONEY FOR HIM.

Yepsen: I THINK MATT MCCOY COULD BE THE WILD CARD IN THIS RACE BECAUSE HIS BASE IS THE SOUTH SIDE OF DES MOINES. THAT IS THE DEMOCRATIC STRONGHOLD OF THE DISTRICT. A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF THAT DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTE WILL COME OUT OF THE SOUTH SIDE OF DES MOINES. AND LEONARD BOSWELL HAS GOT SOME SELLING TO DO IN POLK COUNTY IN THE URBAN PART OF THAT DISTRICT, THAT HE CAN REPRESENT URBAN IOWA AS WELL AS RURAL IOWA. REPUBLICANS THAT -- KAY IS RIGHT; THAT WILL BE A GOOD PRIMARY BECAUSE, WHILE EVERYONE THINKS BOSWELL WILL ULTIMATELY PULL IT OUT BECAUSE HE'S THE INCUMBENT, THIS DISTRICT HAS ABOUT A GOOD OF SHOT AS REPUBLICANS CAN HAVE IN A DISTRICT THAT CONTAINS POLK COUNTY.

Borg: DIFFERENT TYPE OF CAMPAIGNING, TOO, THAN LEONARD BOSWELL IS USED TO DOING. AS YOU SAY, HE'S BEEN OUT IN A RURAL DISTRICT.

Yepsen: LEONARD IS GOING TO HAVE TO GET RID OF THE PICKUP TRUCK, I THINK, AND MAYBE GET A LITTLE MORE URBAN SHINE ON HIM.

Glover: AND ONE OF THE DANGERS THAT BOSWELL FACES IS EVEN IF, AS MOST PEOPLE PREDICT, AS AN INCUMBENT CONGRESSMAN WITH THE POWERS THAT BE IN THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY PRESSURING MCCOY TO GET OUT, LINING UP WITH LEONARD BOSWELL, ONE OF THE GREAT DANGERS THAT DEMOCRATS FACE IS YOU ALREADY HEAR MATT MCCOY RUNNING AROUND TALKING ABOUT "CARPET BAGGER BOSWELL. I WOULD HAVE GOTTEN OUT IF HE'D BEEN IN THIS DISTRICT, BUT HE MOVED INTO THE DISTRICT. HE'S MOVING TO DES MOINES TO BE A CARPET BAGGER." HE BEATS HIM UP FOR THE NEXT YEAR WITH THAT CARPETBAGGER THING AND LEONARD WINS, IT'S GOING TO BE A TOUGH GENERAL ELECTION BECAUSE THE ISSUE WILL ALREADY BE OUT THERE, WILL ALREADY HAVE BEEN LABELED.

Borg: IN THE FOURTH DISTRICT, KATHIE OBRADOVICH, TOM LATHAM IS THE INCUMBENT THERE.

Obradovich: EXACTLY. AND AGAIN, THAT'S A DISTRICT THAT HE HAS REPRESENTED MOST OF IN THE PAST, ALTHOUGH IT NOW COMES DOWN INTO THE AMES AREA. AND HE WILL BE A NEW FACE FOR FOLKS THERE. IT LOOKS LIKE GOVERNOR VILSACK'S FORMER CHIEF OF STAFF, JOHN NORRIS, WILL GO UP TO CHALLENGE HIM ON THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE. AND YOU KNOW, HE IS AN ATTRACTIVE CANDIDATE, PROBABLY WILL HAVE LUCK IN DEMOCRATIC AREAS OF THE DISTRICT. IT'S STILL A PRETTY REPUBLICAN DISTRICT THERE.

Yepsen: I THINK, THOUGH, KATHIE, I THINK JOHN NORRIS HAS A REAL SHOT. AND I SAY THAT BECAUSE TOM LATHAM DOESN'T WORK VERY HARD. HE'S NOT KNOWN AS A VIGOROUS CAMPAIGNER. HE HASN'T HAD TO. HE'S HAD A SAFE DISTRICT. NOW HE'S GOING TO HAVE TO BREAK A SWEAT. AND JOHN NORRIS WAS A FORMER STATE CHAIRMAN. HE HAS LIVED IN DIFFERENT COMMUNITIES IN THE DISTRICT. I THINK IN A GOOD DEMOCRATIC YEAR, NORRIS COULD TAKE LATHAM.

Borg: MIKE GLOVER, IN THE FIFTH DISTRICT, THAT'S THE ONE THAT THE REPUBLICANS SAID IS OUR STEPCHILD DISTRICT. THEY SAID IT'S MORE LIKE NEBRASKA THAN IT IS IOWA. IT'S THAT HUGE WESTERN IOWA DISTRICT. WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN THERE?

Glover: IT'S A HUGE WESTERN IOWA DISTRICT WITH 55,000 MORE REPUBLICANS THAN DEMOCRATS. IT'S A VERY REPUBLICAN DISTRICT. AT THIS MOMENT THERE'S A FOUR-WAY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY SHAPING UP. HOUSE SPEAKER BRENT SIEGRIST IS RUNNING. STEVE KING, THE STATE SENATOR FROM KIRON, IS RUNNING. JOHN REDWINE, A STATE SENATOR FROM SIOUX CITY, IS RUNNING. AND JEFF BALLINGER, A BUSINESSMAN FROM COUNCIL BLUFFS, IS RUNNING. THEY'RE ALL LEGITIMATE CANDIDATES. THEY ALL WILL HAVE ACCESS TO MONEY, AND IT WILL BE A SPIRITED PRIMARY. BRENT SIEGRIST IS PROBABLY THE BEST KNOWN OF THE FOUR CANDIDATES. HE'S A MODERATE. HE TRIES TO CAST HIMSELF AS A MODERATE. HIS HOPE IS THAT THE OTHER CANDIDATES, WHO ARE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN HE, WILL SPLIT UP THE CONSERVATIVE VOTE AND ALLOW HIM TO WALK THROUGH WITH A PLURALITY OF THE REPUBLICAN VOTE. ONE THING WE CAN SAY, THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE IS A LITTLE VAGUE AND WE DON'T KNOW QUITE HOW IT'S GOING TO SHAPE UP BUT, IN ALL LIKELIHOOD, THE WINNER OF THIS REPUBLICAN PRIMARY IS ON THEIR WAY TO CONGRESS.

Yepsen: I THINK THE EARLY NUMBERS IN THAT DISTRICT WOULD FAVOR REDWINE. THE REASON I SAY THAT IS HE'S GOT SIOUX CITY LOCKED UP; IT'S THE LARGEST CITY. PLUS HIS DISTRICT GOES ON UP INTO ORANGE CITY AND THOSE DUTCH REFORMED AREAS NORTH OF SIOUX CITY WHERE A HUGE PERCENTAGE OF THAT REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTE WILL COME OUT OF. SO THE EARLY GOING ON THAT, THE EARLY LINE, I THINK YOU HAVE TO GIVE A BIT OF AN EDGE TO REDWINE.

Obradovich: CERTAINLY THE CANDIDACY OF MR. BALLINGER HURT SIEGRIST IN HIS BASE, COUNCIL BLUFFS, BECAUSE MR. BALLINGER IS WELL KNOWN. HE MAY BE ABLE TO BRING SOME MONEY TO THE RACE, AND HE DOES EAT INTO THAT POPULATION BASE.

Borg: IN THE RACES FOR THE SENATE AND FOR THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, THAT IS, THE CONGRESS, ARE THERE ISSUES OR IS THIS A CANDIDATE-DRIVEN ELECTION?

Glover: IT WILL BE A CANDIDATE DRIVEN ELECTION, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE ISSUES THAT WILL WORK THEIR WAY IN. WE'VE TALKED EARLIER IN THE RACE FOR THE SENATE, THE FARM BILL IS GOING TO BE A BIG ISSUE OF THE FARM ECONOMY AND HOW THE FARM BILL PLAYS INTO ALL THAT AND THE WHOLE ROLE OF THE FARM BILL. FIRST OF ALL, TOM HARKIN IS GOING TO GET A LOT OF ATTENTION ON A NATIONAL AND STATE LEVEL AS THAT GETS SHAPED UP. SO I THINK THAT WILL BE A MAJOR FORCE IN THE CAMPAIGN. AND IT CASTS THE ISSUES IN TERMS AND METHODS THAT HARKIN LIKES. IT WILL BE TOM HARKIN, CHAIR OF THE AG COMMITTEE, TALKING ABOUT A FARM BILL, RUNNING AGAINST A DES MOINES PHYSICIAN.

Yepsen: AND I THINK, DEAN, THE ATMOSPHERICS FAVOR THE DEMOCRATS MORE THAN ANY SPECIFIC ISSUE. I THINK THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR BEING THE BEST DEMOCRATIC YEAR IN IOWA SINCE 1964. BUSH IS IN THE WHITE HOUSE. IT'S AN OFF YEAR IN THAT REGARD. THAT ALWAYS FAVORS THE PARTY OUT OF POWER. THE ECONOMY IS A LITTLE SHAKY. YOU'VE GOT HARKIN AND VILSACK AT THE TOP OF THE TICKET. WE'VE NEVER HAD A DEMOCRATIC SENATOR AND GOVERNOR LEADING THE TICKET IN MODERN TIMES. AND REAPPORTIONMENT, WHICH AS YOU MENTIONED IN THE OPEN, REDREW THE DISTRICT LINES BOTH FOR CONGRESS AND THE LEGISLATURE. DEAN, THAT'S A JUMP BALL AND REPUBLICANS HAVE THE MAJORITIES IN BOTH THE DELEGATION AND IN THE LEGISLATURE, SO THAT GIVES DEMOCRATS AN OPPORTUNITY. I THINK THE DUMBEST THING REPUBLICANS DID WITH THAT REAPPORTIONMENT PLAN WAS TO PACK ALL THOSE REPUBLICANS INTO WESTERN IOWA, BECAUSE TWO THINGS ARE GOING TO HAPPEN: THAT CONGRESSIONAL RACE, AS MIKE SAID, WILL BE DECIDED IN THE PRIMARY, AND THEN EVERYBODY WILL GO TO SLEEP OUT THERE AND REPUBLICANS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING OUT THEIR VOTE AND THAT WILL HURT THEM IN THE STATEWIDE ELECTION; AND IT ALSO MEANS THAT THEY'VE PACKED A LOT OF REPUBLICAN VOTERS INTO THAT DISTRICT THAT THEY COULD HAVE USED IN OTHER DISTRICTS AROUND THE STATE. AND IF JOHN NORRIS DOES BEAT TOM LATHAM, THAT WILL BE THE REASON.

Glover: THE BIG PICTURE IS, WITH REDISTRICTING YOU CREATED FOUR DISTRICTS THAT ARE COMPETITIVE OR LEAN DEMOCRATIC AND ONE DISTRICT THAT IS OVERWHELMINGLY REPUBLICAN. WE HAVE INCUMBENTS THAT MIGHT HOLD ONTO DISTRICTS THAT RATHER QUICKLY WILL BECOME DEMOCRATIC. WHEN JIM LEACH GOES, THAT DISTRICT WILL BE DEMOCRATIC.

Borg: HOW DOES ALL OF THIS, THEN, INTERTWINE INTO THE LEGISLATURE? AND I MENTIONED THAT, TOO, WHERE THE REPUBLICANS ARE SOLIDLY IN CHARGE, KAY. BUT IS ATTENTION GOING TO BE SO MUCH ON THESE FEDERAL ELECTIONS AND THE GUBERNATORIAL THAT THE LEGISLATURE IS GOING TO BE OVERSHADOWED?

Henderson: WELL, THE MONEY WILL BE FLOWING ON THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE, AND DEMOCRATS ARE HOPEFUL THAT THEY'LL BE ABLE TO RAISE A LOT OF MONEY FOR THEIR LEGISLATIVE CANDIDATES. AS DAVID SAID, THEY'RE ENERGIZED. THEY HAVE A GENTLEMAN IN THE NAME OF TOM VILSACK WHO'S ACTIVELY HELPING THEM RECRUIT CANDIDATES, WHICH THEY HAVEN'T HAD IN THE PAST. IT WILL REALLY COME DOWN TO WHAT KIND OF CANDIDATES THEY RECRUIT ON A CASE-BY-CASE BASIS OF HOW SUCCESSFUL THEY'LL BE IN CHALLENGING REPUBLICANS.

Borg: JUST IN CLOSING HERE, MIKE GLOVER, ALSO WE HAVE SOME GAMBLING REFERENDA COMING UP. HOW WILL THEY FIGURE INTO THE OVERALL MIX, ESPECIALLY IN THE LEGISLATIVE RACES?

Glover: THEY'RE GOING TO BE IMPORTANT BECAUSE YOU'VE GOT TEN GAMBLING REFERENDUMS THAT ARE UP NEXT YEAR, AND THERE'S GOING TO BE A LOT OF EFFORT AND ENERGY IN THOSE COMMUNITIES TO TURN THE VOTE OUT BECAUSE WE'RE TALKING ABOUT BIG DOLLARS, BECAUSE IF THOSE REFERENDUMS GO DOWN, THOSE COUNTIES AND THE STATES ARE LOSING A LOT OF MONEY. SO THERE'S GOING TO BE A LOT OF EFFORT IN PLACES LIKE POLK COUNTY TO TURN OUT VOTERS. SO IT'S GOING TO HAVE AN EFFECT ON LEGISLATIVE RACES IN PARTICULAR.

Borg: THANKS FOR YOUR INSIGHTS. THAT'S IT FOR THIS WEEK'S EDITION OF "IOWA PRESS." I HOPE THAT YOU'LL JOIN US NEXT SUNDAY AT NOON AND 7:00 HERE ON STATEWIDE IOWA PUBLIC TELEVISION. UNTIL THAT TIME, I'M DEAN BORG. THANKS FOR JOINING US TODAY.

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