Iowa Public Television

Borg: CANDIDATES SEEKING THE DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION FINE-TUNE THEIR MESSAGES ON IOWANS. IOWA POLITICAL REPORTERS DISCUSS THE 2004 PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN AND SOME STATE ISSUES ON THIS EDITION OF "IOWA PRESS."

Borg: SOME POLITICAL PROGNOSTICATORS SAY THE FIGHT FOR THE DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION IS LIKELY TO BE DECIDED BY EARLY MARCH. THAT'S SOME 45 DAYS AFTER IOWA'S FIRST-IN-THE-NATION PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE CAUCUS ON JANUARY 19. ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL, THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES CRISSCROSS IOWA, HOPING TO STRIKE A CHORD THAT WILL RESONATE WITH SUPPORT ON CAUCUS NIGHT. OUTSIDE IOWA, CAMPAIGN FORUMS, DEBATES, AND OTHER JOINT APPEARANCES ARE INTENSIFYING IN FREQUENCY AND STRATEGICALLY SHARP RHETORIC. WHEN WE LAST CONVENED, IOWA POLITICAL REPORTERS HERE AT THE "IOWA PRESS" TABLE, THE NUMBER OF CANDIDATES HAD JUST INCREASED BY ONE, AS RETIRED ARMY GENERAL WESLEY CLARK HAD JUST DECLARED HIS CANDIDACY. WELL, THIS PAST WEEK JUST THE OPPOSITE HAPPENED AS THE NUMBER OF CANDIDATES DROPPED BACK TO NINE, AS FLORIDA SENATOR BOB GRAHAM CALLED IT QUITS. WE'LL GET COMMENTS ON CAMPAIGN POLITICS AND AN UPDATE ON SOME IOWA ISSUES FROM "DES MOINES REGISTER" POLITICAL COLUMNIST DAVID YEPSEN, "RADIO IOWA" NEWS DIRECTOR KAY HENDERSON, "ASSOCIATED PRESS" SENIOR POLITICAL REPORTER MIKE GLOVER, AND "WOI PUBLIC RADIO" POLITICAL REPORTER JOYCE RUSSELL. KAY, I'LL ASK YOU, I MENTIONED WESLEY CLARK HAD JUST GOTTEN INTO THE RACE. SO THE DECK WAS SHUFFLED JUST A BIT. NOW HE'S HAD A CHANCE TO PLAY NATIONALLY AND HERE IN IOWA. WHAT'S THE EFFECT OF HIS CANDIDACY?

Henderson: WELL, HE'S NOT PLAYING MUCH HERE AT ALL. HE'S BEEN HERE ONCE TO GIVE A SPEECH, WHICH WAS PREARRANGED AT THE UNIVERSITY OF IOWA. IT WAS A FOREIGN POLICY ADDRESS. MOST OF THE FOLKS IN THE AUDIENCE WERE UNIVERSITY OF IOWA STUDENTS AND FACULTY AND PEOPLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UNIVERSITY. HIS SECOND APPEARANCE CAME AT A "HEAR IT FROM THE HEARTLAND" FORUM THAT SENATOR HARKIN SPONSORED IN FORT DODGE. THERE WERE A NUMBER OF PEOPLE IN THE CROWD IN FORT DODGE WHO INDICATED THEY WERE VERY INTERESTED IN HIS CANDIDACY. AMONG THE HARKIN FORUMS, I THOUGHT IT WAS ONE OF THE MOST INTERESTING FORUMS BECAUSE IOWANS DON'T KNOW ENOUGH OR VERY MUCH ABOUT GENERAL CLARK AND SO THEY LEARNED A LITTLE BIT ABOUT HIM. HE'S SHORT ON SPECIFICS AND I THINK HE'S SHORT ON TIME HERE. I THINK HE'S GOING TO BYPASS THE STATE. HE'S NOT GOING TO TELL US THAT BUT HE'S NOT GOING TO CAMPAIGN HERE.

Borg: MIKE, WHY WOULD HE DO THAT?

Glover: WELL, BECAUSE FIRST OF ALL, IT'S TOO LATE TO SET UP A FULL-BLOWN FIELD OPERATION TO TRY TO CATCH UP TO CANDIDATES WHO HAVE BEEN CAMPAIGNING HERE FOR, IN THE CASE OF DICK GEPHARDT, TWENTY YEARS. HE DOESN'T HAVE TIME TO PUT TOGETHER THE FULL-BLOWN FIELD OPERATION TO TRY TO DO THE GRASS-ROOTS TURN-OUT-THE-VOTE CAMPAIGN. BUT I THINK THE BOTTOM LINE IS WE REALLY DON'T KNOW HOW WES CLARK IS GOING TO PLAY HERE. THERE'S A LOT OF INTEREST IN HIM. HE HAS A PRETTY GOOD RESUME. HE HAS THE ABILITY TO GET INTO A ROOM AND INTERACT WITH PEOPLE. I THINK THAT SHOWED AT THE FORUM. HE CAN GET INTO A ROOM AND SCHMOOZE THE PEOPLE. HE'S GOT AN IMPRESSIVE RESUME. A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE INTERESTED IN HIM. I THINK DEMOCRATS WITHIN ABOUT A MONTH ARE GOING TO BE AT THE FOLLOWING POINT: WE HAVE NINE CANDIDATES; THEY ARGUE ABOUT EVERYTHING; IF YOU LOOK AT THEM, THERE'S NOT A DIME'S WORTH OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEM. AT THE END OF THE DAY, I THINK A LOT OF DEMOCRATS ARE GOING TO STEP BACK AND SAY I CAN LIVE WITH ANY OF THESE PEOPLE. SHOW ME THE ONE WHO CAN BEAT GEORGE BUSH, AND THAT'S WHO I'M GOING TO BE FOR. NATIONAL POLLS SHOW CLARK HAS A PRETTY GOOD STANDING AGAINST BUSH.

Borg: DAVE, MIKE JUST SAID HE DOESN'T HAVE TIME TO SET UP SOMETHING IN IOWA. THAT'S FOR JANUARY 19. WELL, I JUST GOT THROUGH INTRODUCING OUR FORUM HERE BY SAYING ONLY 45 DAYS AFTER THAT MANY PEOPLE SAY WE'LL HAVE THE CANDIDATE. DOES HE HAVE TIME TO DO ANYTHING NATIONALLY?

Yepsen: THAT'S A GOOD QUESTION. HIS NAME ID IS MUCH HIGHER NATIONALLY THAN A LOT OF THE OTHER CANDIDATES WERE WHEN THEY STARTED, SO I THINK HE DOES. THE PROBLEM FOR WESLEY CLARK IS I THINK HE IS GOING TO BYPASS IOWA. I THINK HE'S GOING TO CONCLUDE I CAN'T GET ANYTHING HERE AND THESE ISSUE-ORIENTED DEMOCRATS ARE JUST A LITTLE TOO MUCH FOR ME AND HE'S GOING TO TRY TO MAKE A STAND IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE DYNAMIC OF THE CAUCUS IS SUCH, DEAN, THAT YOU'VE GOT TO GET 15 PERCENT OF THE PEOPLE IN A ROOM BEFORE YOU GET ANYTHING. OKAY? AND THAT'S BECAUSE OF PARTY RULES THAT REQUIRE A 15-PERCENT THRESHOLD. SO A CANDIDATE WHO HAS TO DRAG PEOPLE OUT ON A COLD JANUARY NIGHT AND GET THEM OUT ON A CAUCUS, IT'S A MUCH EASIER TASK TO GO TO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND JUST DRAG PEOPLE -- GET PEOPLE TO GO TO THE POLLS FOR A FEW MINUTES ON ELECTION DAY. I THINK CLARK MAY DECIDE THAT THAT WILL WORK. IT'S NOT A STRATEGY THAT'S EVER WORKED FOR ANY OTHER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE. AND THE DANGER FOR WESLEY CLARK IS THAT HOWARD DEAN DOES WELL IN IOWA, DICK GEPHARDT IS KNOCKED OUT OF THE RACE, DEAN SPRINGS AHEAD IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. PRETTY SOON THE HOWARD DEAN BALL GETS ROLLING.

Russell: ONE OF THE WEAKNESSES I THINK OF CLARK'S CANDIDACY BOTH HERE AND ANYWHERE IN THE COUNTRY WAS EVIDENT IN THE KINDS OF QUESTIONS THAT CAME UP MONDAY NIGHT WHEN HE WAS IN FORT DODGE. HE GAVE -- IN HIS OPENING REMARKS, HE GAVE THIS DETAILED ACCOUNT OF HIS HISTORY IN THE VARIOUS ADMINISTRATIONS THAT HE'D WORKED FOR. IT MAKES YOUR HARD-CORE DEMOCRATS KIND OF NERVOUS: OKAY, IS THIS GUY A DEMOCRAT OR WHO IS HE REALLY?

Glover: THAT'S ANOTHER POINT FOR DAVE'S POINT THAT NEW HAMPSHIRE IS A MUCH MORE FRIENDLY PLACE FOR HIM. IN IOWA, INDEPENDENTS AND REPUBLICANS CAN'T PARTICIPATE IN DEMOCRATIC PRECINCT CAUCUSES, BUT THERE'S NO HISTORY OF THEM DOING THAT. ABOUT A THIRD OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VOTE IS INDEPENDENT, AND THERE IS A STRONG HISTORY OF THOSE PEOPLE PARTICIPATING.

Yepsen: BUT, MIKE, TO YOUR POINT, A LOT OF THOSE DEMOCRATS, IF YOU -- AND SENATOR HARKIN WAS MAKING THIS POINT IN FORT DODGE THE OTHER NIGHT. ABOUT A THIRD TO A HALF OF IOWA DEMOCRATS SAYING THEY'RE UNDECIDED. AND EVEN OF THOSE WHO HAVE DECIDED, THEY SAY, "WELL, I'M CAPABLE OF CHANGING MY MIND." THE ACTIVIST CAUCUS-GOER IS A PRETTY GOOD SOPHISTICATED POLITICAL PLAYER. SO IF YOU'RE GENERAL CLARK TRYING TO DECIDE WHAT TO DO OR NOT, YOU'VE GOT TO DECIDE LOOK AT THAT HIGH UNDECIDED AND THINK, WELL, MAYBE I COULD GET SOMETHING OUT OF IT.

Glover: AND AGAIN, I THINK IT'S GOING TO COME DOWN TO THIS POINT, PARTICULARLY IN IOWA. I WAS TALKING TO JOHN EDWARDS ABOUT THIS JUST THIS LAST WEEK. HE HEARS THIS MORE IN IOWA THAN ANYWHERE ELSE IN THE COUNTRY. THOSE SOPHISTICATED CAUCUS-GOERS WANT, AT THE END OF THE DAY, ONE QUESTION ANSWERED: WHICH OF THIS GROUP CAN BEAT GEORGE BUSH? IF YOU CAN COME IN, HOLD UP A POLL, MAKE A CASE -- I CAN BEAT GEORGE BUSH AND MAYBE YOU'RE NOT WITH ME ON ALL THESE ISSUES, BUT I CAN BEAT GEORGE BUSH -- YOU'RE GOING TO GET A LOT OF THOSE CAUCUS-GOERS.

Russell: AND THOSE EARLY POLLS SHOWED HIM DOING WELL AGAINST GEORGE BUSH. HE'S, OF COURSE, MAKING A BIG DEAL ABOUT THAT.

Yepsen: DEAN, ONE OTHER OBSERVATION OF WESLEY CLARK AT FORT DODGE I THOUGHT WAS JUST HILARIOUS, WHEN HE ENTERED THE ROOM, THEY ALWAYS HAVE INTRODUCTORY MUSIC TO A CANDIDATE. AND THE MUSIC FOR GENERAL CLARK WAS JOHNNY CASH SINGING "I FELL INTO A BURNING RING OF FIRE." AND I COULDN'T HELP BUT THINK, MY GOD, WESLEY CLARK MUST THINK THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT HE'S DONE.

Borg: WELL, EXACTLY, BECAUSE THE OTHER CANDIDATES ARE TARGETING BUSH BUT ALSO DIRECTING A LOT OF FIRE AT HIM DIRECTLY TO MAKE SURE HE DOESN'T GET THAT TRACTION.

Glover: THAT'S BECAUSE HE CAME IN -- HE CAME IN WITH A HIGH NAME ID. HE CAME IN, AS JOYCE MENTIONED, WITH POLLS SHOWING HIM IN A STATISTICAL DEAD HEAT WITH GEORGE BUSH. THAT'S A GLIMMER IN THE EYE OF ANY HARD-CORE DEMOCRAT. SO THEY'VE GOT TO TRY TO TEAR THAT DOWN, JUST LIKE HOWARD DEAN HAS BEEN A FRONT-RUNNER FOR A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME IN THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY IS NOW COMING UNDER A WHOLE LOT OF CRITICISM. YOU WON'T HEAR DICK GEPHARDT OR JOHN KERRY GET THROUGH AN ENTIRE SPEECH WITHOUT RIPPING AT HOWARD DEAN PRETTY GOOD BECAUSE HE'S DONE PRETTY WELL SO FAR.

Borg: WE'LL GET TO HOWARD DEAN IN JUST A LITTLE BIT BUT, JOYCE, I WANTED TO MAKE AN OBSERVATION THAT THE OTHER NEWS OF THIS PAST WEEK WAS OUT IN CALIFORNIA, WHERE GOVERNOR GRAY DAVIS WAS RECALLED. ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER WAS ELECTED. WHAT ARE THE DYNAMICS THERE THAT MIGHT HAVE SOME REVERBERATIONS NATIONALLY, DO YOU THINK?

Russell: WELL, IT SEEMS TO BE A CASE OF THE ANGRY VOTER. GRAY DAVIS WAS REELECTED JUST A YEAR AGO. IN THE MEANTIME THE ECONOMY HAS WORSENED. THE BUDGET PROBLEMS THAT WE HAVE HERE IN IOWA ARE A WALK IN THE PARK COMPARED TO WHAT THEY HAVE IN CALIFORNIA, AND VOTERS OBVIOUSLY WANTED A CHANGE. AND THE QUESTION NOW, I THINK, IS WHETHER REPUBLICANS DOWN THE LINE ARE GOING TO BE HAPPY OR SAD THAT THEY ARE NOW IN CHARGE IN CALIFORNIA, BECAUSE THERE'S NO EASY WAY OUT OF THEIR BUDGET PROBLEMS. AND AN ARGUMENT COULD BE MADE THAT IF GRAY DAVIS HAD STAYED IN THERE THAT THE REPUBLICANS COULD HAVE REAPED MORE -- YOU KNOW, REAPED MORE OUT OF THAT THAN HAVING THEIR OWN REPUBLICAN IN THERE AND MAKING ALL THOSE TOUGH DECISIONS THAT ARE COMING UP.

Glover: THE WHITE HOUSE IS VERY, VERY AMBIGUOUS ABOUT THIS WHOLE EFFORT TO RECALL GRAY DAVIS. HE WAS A VERY UNPOPULAR FIGURE IN A STATE FACING ENORMOUS BUDGET PROBLEMS, AND THERE WAS A CIRCLE OF THINKING IN THE REPUBLICAN PARTY THAT: WE'RE GOING TO LET GRAY DAVIS STEW IN HIS JUICES; IT'S GOING TO TAKE REAL PAIN TO GET OUT OF THIS BUDGET; LET'S LET DAVIS DO IT; AND THEN NEXT YEAR, WHEN HIS APPROVAL RATING IS ABOUT 2, THEN MAYBE GEORGE BUSH WOULD STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF TAKING CALIFORNIA IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. LONG SHOT AT BEST, BUT THAT WOULD IMPROVE IT.

Henderson: YOU KNOW, EVERYBODY IS LOOKING AT THIS CALIFORNIA RACE AND TALKING ABOUT THE ANGRY VOTER. AND I MIGHT CALL IT THE DISCONNECTED VOTER. I THINK VOTERS HAVE GOTTEN TO THE POINT WHERE THEY'RE SO -- THEY DON'T KNOW ENOUGH ABOUT GOVERNMENT TO REALIZE THAT THESE PEOPLE THAT THEY'RE ELECTING HAVE, IN ARNOLD'S CASE, NO EXPERIENCE RUNNING GOVERNMENT, ARE GOING TO GO IN THERE WITH NO EXPERIENCE. PEOPLE ARE FORGETTING THAT THEY -- THEIR GOVERNMENT STILL HAS THE ABILITY TO TAX THEM. AND I THINK THERE'S A DISCONNECTION. THEY ARE ATTRACTED TO CELEBRITY. IN THE WESLEY CLARK CASE, I THINK PART OF THAT IS THEY'RE ATTRACTED TO THE IDEA OF WESLEY CLARK. THEY'RE NOT ACTUALLY ATTRACTED TO WHAT WESLEY CLARK WOULD DO ONCE HE WERE IN OFFICE. SO VOTERS ARE NO LONGER APPROACHING THEIR VOTING DECISIONS AS IF THEY WERE, YOU KNOW, GOING THROUGH A JOB INTERVIEW. THEY'RE APPROACHING THIS BECAUSE THEY REALLY DON'T KNOW WHAT THE JOB IS THAT THIS PERSON THEY'RE ELECTING TO DO.

Yepsen: I THINK THE ANGRY VOTER PHRASE IS A GOOD WAY TO PUT IT, AND I THINK IT BODES ILL FOR ANY INCUMBENT. I THINK IT BODES ILL FOR PRESIDENT BUSH. FOR EXAMPLE, DEAN, GOVERNOR VILSACK'S JOB APPROVAL RATINGS HAVE DIPPED DOWN TO ABOUT 52 PERCENT HERE. THAT'S PRETTY LOW FOR HIM. GRAY DAVIS'S IN CALIFORNIA WERE IN THE TWENTIES. SO PEOPLE THERE WERE MUCH ANGRIER THAN THEY ARE HERE. BUT IN BOTH THE CASE OF THE CALIFORNIA SITUATION AS WELL AS HOWARD DEAN'S CANDIDACY, YOU WERE SEEING DEAN BRING OUT LOTS OF NEW PEOPLE WHO ARE VERY ANGRY AND OTHER DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS ANGER THEME AND THEY'RE RAISING THE RHETORIC LEVELS. SO THIS IS THE YEAR OF ANGER IN AMERICAN POLITICS, AND I THINK IT BODES ILL FOR ANYONE WHO IS AN INCUMBENT OR PERCEIVED AS BEING IN THE INSIDE.

Glover: THERE WAS AN INTERVIEW I SAW THE DAY AFTER THE CALIFORNIA RECALL WHERE A WOMAN ATTORNEY WAS INTERVIEWED ON THE STREETS OF LOS ANGELES. THEY ASKED HER HOW SHE VOTED, AND SHE SAID SHE VOTED TO RECALL DAVIS AND VOTE FOR SCHWARZENEGGER. SHE WAS A DEMOCRAT AND THEY SAID, "WHY DID YOU VOTE FOR ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER?" SHE PAUSED FOR A SECOND AND SHE SAID, "I THINK HE MIGHT BE MORE FUN."

Borg: YES, I HEARD THAT.

Glover: HOW DO YOU CAMPAIGN AGAINST THAT? IF I'M GRAY DAVIS, HOW DO I COME UP WITH A COMMERCIAL THAT COMPETES WITH THAT? IT'S A POWER OF CELEBRITY. IT'S A POWER OF STARDOM. IT'S THE INTANGIBLE THAT I DON'T THINK YOU CAN TOUCH.

Henderson: IT'S LIKE HIGH SCHOOL. THE MOST POPULAR GUY USUALLY WON CLASS PRESIDENT BECAUSE HE WAS THE CUTEST AND THE GIRLS LIKED HIM.

Glover: THE MORE I'M AROUND POLITICS, THE MORE I'M CONVINCED THAT EVERY ELECTION IS ABOUT RUNNING FOR CLASS PRESIDENT. IT ENDS UP BEING, AT THE END OF THE DAY, UNLESS YOU HAVE A CANDIDATE WHO'S OUT IN LEFT FIELD OR OUT IN RIGHT FIELD, AT THE END OF THE DAY IT ENDS UP BEING THE CANDIDATE YOU LIKE MOST OR LIKE LEAST.

Yepsen: I'VE YET TO HEAR AN IOWA VOTER SAY THEY'RE LOOKING FOR AN OFFICEHOLDER WHO WOULD BE FUN. WE DON'T HAVE THAT KIND OF VOTER IN IOWA.

Borg: JOYCE, ONE OF THOSE PEOPLE WHO COULD BE VIEWED AS PART OF THE ESTABLISHMENT BECAUSE HE IS A SENATOR, BOB GRAHAM, BOWED OUT THIS WEEK. BUT ALMOST -- IT'S LIKE A FOREST -- OR A TREE FALLING IN THE FOREST.

Russell: WELL, AMONG ACTIVISTS, ACTIVISTS HEARD THAT TREE FALLING, AND THE OTHER CAMPAIGNS HEARD THAT TREE FALLING. AND ONE OF THE RESULTS OF SENATOR GRAHAM COMING OUT OF THE RACE THIS WEEK WAS A -- WAS A FREE-FOR-ALL TO GO AFTER HIS ACTIVISTS. AND ALL OF THE PEOPLE WHO HAD SIGNED UP FOR HIS CAMPAIGN SPENT A LOT OF THE TIME ON THE PHONE THIS WEEK WITH THE OTHER CANDIDATES TRYING TO RECRUIT THEM TO COME ON BOARD.

Glover: I TAKE A LITTLE BIT OF A DIFFERENT TRACK. I THINK THAT BOB GRAHAM'S EXIT FROM THE RACE HAD ALMOST NO IMPACT ON IOWA, BECAUSE BOB GRAHAM MADE ALMOST NO INROADS IN IOWA. HE DIDN'T HAVE A LOT OF ACTIVISTS SIGNED UP. HE DIDN'T HAVE A REAL HARD-CORE GROUP OF STRATEGISTS RUNNING HIS CAMPAIGN. THEY WERE PRETTY MUCH A GROUP OF AMATEURS. AND THERE WASN'T A LOT TO GO ANYWHERE ELSE. HIS CAMPAIGN NEVER MADE A LOT OF SENSE. IT NEVER GOT OFF THE GROUND. THERE WAS NEVER A GOOD RATIONALE FOR IT. HE PROBABLY SHOULDN'T HAVE GOTTEN IN AND PROBABLY SHOULD HAVE GOTTEN OUT A WHILE AGO.

Yepsen: WELL, HE GOT IN LATE. HE HAS HEART PROBLEMS AND AN UNCLEAR MESSAGE, AND HE WAS NOT A VERY GOOD CANDIDATE ON THE STUB. HE WAS OUT THERE SINGING. SO THERE'S ONE IN EVERY RACE, DEAN, OF A CANDIDATE WHO IS A PROMINENT UNITED STATES SENATOR WHO GETS INTO A PRESIDENTIAL RACE AND FALLS FLAT. WARREN HATCH LAST TIME WAS A GOOD EXAMPLE, AND BOB GRAHAM WAS THIS YEAR.

Borg: KAY, HOWARD DEAN HAS SHOWED A LOT OF INNOVATION IN VARIOUS THINGS THAT HE'S DOING IN HIS CAMPAIGN. IT'S NOT SO INNOVATIVE TO GO AFTER COLLEGE-AGED VOTERS, BUT HE'S DOING IT STRONGLY. IS THERE ANY INDICATION THAT THAT MIGHT SUCCEED?

Henderson: THAT'S -- THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON THAT. THE PROBLEM THAT HE'LL HAVE IS HE MAY MOTIVATE A LOT OF PEOPLE IN IOWA CITY AND IN GRINNELL AND IN WEST DES MOINES, STUDENTS TO SUPPORT HIM, BUT THEY'RE ALL GOING TO GO TO THE SAME CAUCUS. SO HE'S NOT GOING TO BENEFIT FROM GETTING A LOT OF DELEGATES. THE THING THAT I THINK IS INTERESTING ABOUT HIS CANDIDACY IS THAT HE IS USING THE INTERNET AND HE'S ABLE TO KEEP THOSE PEOPLE PLUGGED INTO HIS MESSAGE. THEY DON'T HAVE TO LISTEN TO "RADIO IOWA" OR READ "THE DES MOINES REGISTER." THEY CAN GO TO THE HOWARD DEAN WEB SITE EVERY DAY AND READ WHAT HOWARD DEAN WANTS THEM TO SAY. THAT'S A LOT CHEAPER THAN HOWARD DEAN HAVING TO PRINT A PAMPHLET AND MAIL IT TO SOMEONE'S HOUSE. SO I THINK IN THAT REGARD, HE IS GOING TO CHANGE CAMPAIGN TACTICS FROM HERE ON OUT.

Yepsen: IN AN IOWA CAUCUS FIGHT THOUGH, DEAN, YOU'VE STILL GOT TO GO TO HARLAN, IOWA, AND TO RURAL PARTS OF THE STATE. KAY MENTIONED THE -- YOU CAN'T JUST CONCENTRATE ALL YOUR VOTES IN ONE PLACE. I MEAN 800 STUDENTS TURNED OUT IN A PRECINCT IN IOWA CITY WILL GET YOU 10 DELEGATES JUST THE SAME AS YOU COULD GET 50 PEOPLE IN SHELBY COUNTY TO GET YOU 10 DELEGATES. SO CANDIDATES ARE STILL GOING TO HAVE TO TO BE DIFFUSED. THIS INTERNET THING IS FOR REAL. IT IS INTERESTING HE'S RAISING MONEY WITH IT. BUT HALF THE CAUCUS-GOERS IN IOWA DO NOT USE THE INTERNET. SO I THINK CANDIDATES ARE STILL -- THIS IS A RURAL STATE. THIS IS AN OLDER STATE. OUR INTERNET USAGE IS NOT AS HIGH AS IT IS ELSEWHERE. I THINK CANDIDATES ARE STILL GOING TO HAVE TO BE OUT THERE ON THE GROUND SEEING PEOPLE IN COFFEE SHOPS AND CHURCH BASEMENTS AND LEGION HALLS.

Glover: AND TO MAKE THE POINT, NEXT WEEK HOWARD DEAN WILL CAMPAIGN IN HIS 99TH IOWA COUNTY. HOWARD DEAN HAS CAMPAIGNED IN EVERY COUNTY IN THE STATE, AND MOST COUNTIES MULTIPLE TIMES. HE HAS BEEN TO ALL THOSE PLACES. HE HAS SIGNED UP A LOT OF PEOPLE OUTSIDE OF IOWA CITY, OUTSIDE OF AMES, OUTSIDE OF GRINNELL.

Yepsen: HE'S THE ONLY CANDIDATE TO HAVE DONE THAT, RIGHT, MIKE?

Glover: DICK GEPHARDT DID IT IN 1988.

Yepsen: BUT NOT THIS CYCLE.

Glover: NOT THIS CYCLE. HE HAS BEEN IN MORE IOWA COUNTIES, DONE MORE APPEARANCES IN MORE PLACES THAN ANY OTHER CANDIDATE. I THINK WE FORGET THAT AT OUR HAZARD, BUT AT THE SAME TIME I'VE YET TO BE CONVINCED A LOT OF THE NONTRADITIONAL PEOPLE WHO HE HAS SIGNED UP IN PLACES ALL OVER THE STATE ARE ACTUALLY GOING TO SHOW UP ON CAUCUS NIGHT.

Borg: JOYCE, HOW DO YOU SEE THE PRESENCE -- AND MIKE HAS JUST SAID THE PRESENCE IN THE 99TH COUNTY NOW OF HOWARD DEAN -- THE PRESENCE OF THE OTHER UPPER TIER, IF I COULD PUT THEM THAT WAY, JOHN KERRY, RICHARD GEPHARDT, AND JOHN EDWARDS?

Russell: WELL, THEY'RE ALL HERE. THEY'RE ALL CAMPAIGNING. A NUMBER OF THEM WILL BE AT AN EVENT THIS WEEK. THE AARP WILL HAVE A CANDIDATES' FORUM IN DES MOINES, AND A NUMBER OF THESE CANDIDATES WILL BE HERE. THEY CERTAINLY DON'T SEEM TO HAVE THE TRACTION THAT HOWARD DEAN HAS. THEY DON'T SEEM TO HAVE, AS WE'VE BEEN TALKING, THE APPEAL TO THE YOUNGER VOTER.

Yepsen: I THINK DICK GEPHARDT, SOMEBODY DESCRIBED HIM AS THE TORTOISE IN THIS RACE. AND I THINK -- YOU KNOW, HE JUST PLODS ALONG AND WE'RE ALL TALKING ABOUT WESLEY CLARK AND HOWARD DEAN. DICK GEPHARDT PICKED UP, I THINK, HIS SIXTEENTH INTERNATIONAL UNION ENDORSEMENT. THOSE UNIONS HAVE ABOUT 40,000 MEMBERS IN IOWA. IF YOU HAVE A CAUCUS WHERE THE TURNOUT IS 100- TO 125,000, DICK GEPHARDT IS STILL A VERY BIG PLAYER IN THIS. AND HE IS A DOGGED CAMPAIGNER, AND I WOULD NOT DISMISS HIM AT ALL. ALL THESE POLLS THAT SHOW HOWARD DEAN SUPPOSEDLY AHEAD IN IOWA, A LOT OF THAT IS MARGIN-OF-ERROR STUFF.

Glover: IT'S ALL MARGIN-OF-ERROR STUFF, AND WE NEED TO REMEMBER THAT DICK GEPHARDT HAS THE MOST LABOR SUPPORT OF ANY CANDIDATE IN THE RACE. TRUE, HE DOESN'T HAVE THE ENDORSEMENT OF THE AFL-CIO, BUT HE HAS MORE THAN ANYONE ELSE. AND ON CAUCUS NIGHT ONE OUT OF THREE PEOPLE GOING TO A PRECINCT CAUCUS WILL COME FROM A UNION HOUSEHOLD, AND ONE OUT OF THREE WILL WIN THE IOWA CAUCUSES.

Henderson: AND IF YOU LOOK AT DICK GEPHARDT'S SCHEDULE, AS DAVID MENTIONED, HE HAS BEEN GOING OUT TO WESTERN IOWA, AND PEOPLE SCRATCH THEIR HEADS AND THEY SAY THERE ARE NO DEMOCRATS IN WESTERN IOWA. BUT THERE WILL BE DEMOCRATIC PRECINCT MEETINGS IN WESTERN IOWA, AND THOSE PEOPLE WILL BE SELECTING DELEGATES. ONCE AGAIN, THIS IS NOT A PRIMARY. THIS IS A CAUCUS. THIS IS ABOUT DELEGATES AND HE HAS SPENT TIME IN SMALL PLACES IN WESTERN IOWA WHERE HE'S GOING TO YIELD SOME DIVIDENDS ON CAUCUS NIGHT.

Borg: TAKE THAT SAME THOUGHT AND APPLY IT TO DENNIS KUCINICH AND THEN TO CAROL MOSELEY BRAUN AND THEN REVEREND AL SHARPTON.

Henderson: AND JOSEPH LIEBERMAN.

Borg: YEAH, AND JOE LIEBERMAN.

Henderson: I THINK WE CAN LUMP ALL OF THOSE CANDIDATES YOU'VE MENTIONED, SAVE KUCINICH, IN THE SAME POT. THEY'RE NOT CAMPAIGNING HERE. THEY'RE NOT GOING TO DO WELL ON CAUCUS NIGHT. KUCINICH IS A DIFFERENT KIND OF CANDIDATE. HE APPEALS TO A GROUP OF DEMOCRATIC ACTIVISTS WHO HAVE PROVEN IN THE PAST TO BE ACTIVE IN THE PARTY AND PEOPLE WHO WILL GO OUT ON PRECINCT CAUCUS NIGHT. SO HE IS GOING TO DO BETTER THAN ALL THOSE OTHER MENTIONED CANDIDATES.

Glover: AND THEN DAVE BRUSHED ACROSS IT EARLIER -- WE PERHAPS SHOULD MENTION IT IN A LITTLE MORE DETAIL -- THE VIABILITY THRESHOLD THAT EXISTS IN IOWA CAUCUSES. IF 100 PEOPLE SHOW UP FOR A PRECINCT CAUCUS SOMEWHERE IN IOWA AND 12 OF THEM, LIKE DENNIS KUCINICH, DENNIS KUCINICH GETS NO DELEGATES BECAUSE YOU HAVE TO HAVE 15-PERCENT SUPPORT IN THAT CAUCUS TO GET A DELEGATE. I'M NOT SO SURE KUCINICH, WHO HAS POCKETS OF STRENGTH ADMITTEDLY, I'M NOT SO SURE HE MEETS THE 15-PERCENT VIABILITY THRESHOLD.

Borg: DAVE, I'M INTERESTED IN YOUR PERSPECTIVE ON HOW THE IOWA CAUCUSES ARE INFLUENCING THE NATIONAL DEBATE THIS TIME. IT SEEMS TO ME THAT LAST CYCLE, A LOT OF TIME WAS SPENT IN DES MOINES AND IN IOWA BY THE CANDIDATES. I SEE THEM NOW IN THE WEST IN A DEBATE. CNN SPONSORED A DEBATE THIS PAST WEEK. ALL OVER THE NATION, IT SEEMED THAT HAS MORE DIFFUSED THE CAMPAIGN THIS TIME.

Yepsen: I THINK YOU'RE RIGHT. I THINK OTHER STATES WANT PART OF THIS LIMELIGHT, AND SO THEY HAVE CREPT -- MOVED THEIR EVENTS, THEIR CAUCUSES AND THEIR PRIMARIES, CLOSER AND CLOSER TO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND IOWA. AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY HAS ENCOURAGED THIS BECAUSE IT IS IN THEIR INTEREST TO GET A NOMINEE QUICKLY. IT TENDS TO LEAVE A LOT OF AMERICANS OUT OF THE DISCUSSION, BUT IF YOU'RE A DEMOCRAT, YOU DON'T CARE ABOUT THAT. YOU WANT TO GET A HORSE ON THE FIELD RUNNING AGAINST GEORGE BUSH INTO THE FALL EVENT. SO IOWA IS -- IT IS -- WE'RE NOT SEEING THE AMOUNT OF TIME WE SAW FROM CANDIDATES IN THE PAST, BUT IT IS VERY IMPORTANT. BECAUSE THIS THING -- THESE EVENTS ARE IN SUCH RAPID-FIRE SEQUENCE, A CANDIDATE WHO STUMBLES HERE HAS LITTLE TIME TO RECOVER, AND THAT'S HOWARD DEAN'S WHOLE STRATEGY: YOU WIN IOWA; MAYBE KNOCK DICK GEPHARDT CLEAR OUT OF THE RACE; YOU DO BETTER THAN JOHN KERRY, WHICH HURTS KERRY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE; DEAN WINS NEW HAMPSHIRE; AND ALL OF A SUDDEN DEAN HAS, IN THE SPACE OF TEN DAYS, PUT TOGETHER TWO BACK-TO-BACK WINS, HUGE MEDIA ATTENTION, AND HE HEADS SOUTH.

Glover: IN 1988 -- LET'S GIVE THE HISTORICAL COMPARISON HERE. IN 1988 DICK GEPHARDT, THE SAME DICK GEPHARDT, AND PAUL SIMON BOTH RENTED APARTMENTS IN DES MOINES, MOVED TO DES MOINES, AND LIVED IN IOWA FOR THE THREE MONTHS LEADING UP TO THE PRECINCT CAUCUSES. A CANDIDATE CAN'T DO THAT THIS TIME. YES, IOWA IS IMPORTANT. YOU DON'T HAVE ANY TIME TO RECOVER FROM A STUMBLE IN IOWA, BUT YOU'VE ALSO GOT RIGHT AFTER IOWA, EIGHT DAYS LATER, YOU'VE GOT NEW HAMPSHIRE, THE THIRD WEEK YOU'VE GOT SOUTH CAROLINA, NEW MEXICO, ARIZONA, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA, A WHOLE BUNCH OF STATES THAT DAY. AND THEN RIGHT AFTER THAT, YOU'VE GOT MICHIGAN. I PREDICT THERE WILL BE A NOMINEE BY MARCH 2 AT THE ABSOLUTE LATEST, BECAUSE MARCH 2 CALIFORNIA AND NEW YORK VOTE.

Borg: DAVE, JUST TO CONCLUDE OUR CONVERSATION HERE ON THE CAUCUSES, THERE WAS A COLUMN THAT YOU WROTE THIS WEEK THAT SAID BAG THE ENDORSEMENTS.

Yepsen: I DON'T THINK THEY NEED ANY. I DON'T THINK THEY'RE WORTH IT. WE MAKE A BIG DEAL ABOUT IT. I THINK PRESIDENTIAL VOTES ARE DEEPLY PERSONAL ONES THAT ACTIVISTS DECIDE FOR THEMSELVES. WE DON'T HAVE MACHINE POLITICS IN THIS STATE, AND ENDORSEMENTS CAN EVEN BE COUNTERPRODUCTIVE. IF GOVERNOR VILSACK ENDORSES A CANDIDATE, OR TOM HARKIN, THAT RAISES THE EXPECTATION LEVELS FOR WHAT THEY HAVE TO GET HERE. AND YET THEY HAVE NO MACHINE -- NO CHICAGO-STYLE POLITICAL ORGANIZATION TO DELIVER ANY VOTES.

Borg: DO YOU THINK THAT IOWA GOVERNOR VILSACK OR CHRISTIE VILSACK, WHO ENDORSED LAST TIME VERY HIGH-PROFILE ENDORSEMENT, ARE THEY GOING TO BAG THEM THIS TIME?

Yepsen: THEY'RE THINKING ABOUT IT. THEY'RE THINKING ABOUT IT.

Borg: THINKING ABOUT WHAT?

Yepsen: ABOUT MAKING ENDORSEMENTS. I MEAN THEY UNDERSTAND WHAT I'M SAYING, THAT THERE'S A DOWN SIDE TO IT, BUT THERE'S ALSO AN UPSIDE. YOU KNOW, IF YOU PICK A WINNER EARLY, YOU COULD WIND UP ON THE GUY'S CABINET.

Borg: GAMBLING IS A STATE ISSUE THAT'S COMING BUBBLING BACK TO THE SURFACE AGAIN. THERE WAS A REPORT THIS PAST WEEK, KAY. TELL US ABOUT THAT REPORT AND THE INFLUENCE. AND IT LOOKS LIKE THAT QUESTION IS GOING TO BE THROWN BACK IN THE LAP OF THE LEGISLATURE.

Henderson: RIGHT. THE RACING AND GAMING COMMISSION IN ABOUT IOWA ABOUT FIVE YEARS AGO ESTABLISHED A MORATORIUM ON NEW LICENSES FOR GAMBLING IN IOWA. A CONSULTANT THIS WEEK SAID IOWA COULD STAND TO HAVE A FEW MORE CASINOS. IT IDENTIFIED WATERLOO AND CEDAR RAPIDS AS THE BEST MARKETS IN WHICH TO LOCATE THOSE OPERATIONS. THE STATE RACING AND GAMING COMMISSION, HOWEVER, ALL FIVE MEMBERS TOLD ME ON THURSDAY THAT THEY ARE RELUCTANT TO DO ANYTHING. THEY WANT SOME GUIDANCE, IF YOU WILL, FROM THE LEGISLATURE. THE LEGISLATURE IN TURN DOESN'T WANT TO GET IN THIS MIX BECAUSE ONCE YOU OPEN THE FLOOD GATES FOR A GAMBLING DEBATE, ANYTHING GOES. THE WHOLE KITCHEN SINK COULD BE THROWN IN. AND ALSO, I THINK YOU COULD SEE A COALITION OF THE UNWILLING BE BUILT IN THE IOWA LEGISLATURE. LEGISLATORS WHO REPRESENT AREAS WHICH ALREADY HAVE CASINOS, COUPLED WITH LEGISLATORS WHO HATE GAMBLING, COULD REALLY GUM UP THE MIX AND PREVENT ANYTHING FROM HAPPENING.

Yepsen: THE COMMISSION DOESN'T UNDERSTAND IT. LEGISLATURES CREATE COMMISSIONS TO FOB TOUGH DECISIONS OFF ON -- SO THAT'S WHY THE LEGISLATURE IS FRUSTRATED. IF THE COMMISSION IS SMART, THEY'LL MAKE A DECISION ON THIS.

Glover: YEAH, WE'VE TRAINED YOU TO DO THIS. COME ON, FOLKS. AND YOU'RE RIGHT. I THINK AT THE END OF THE DAY, IF THIS ISSUE LANDS IN THE LEGISLATURE, NOTHING IS GOING TO HAPPEN. THE LEGISLATURE IS TOO CLOSELY DIVIDED OVER GAMBLING. THE ONLY COUNTERVAILING PRESSURE IS THIS IS A REVENUE SOURCE FOR A STATE WHICH BADLY AND DESPERATELY NEEDS NEW REVENUES. THIS A REVENUE THAT PEOPLE ARE WILLING, IN FACT EAGER, TO PAY. THAT'S THE COUNTERVAILING PRESSURE. I DON'T THINK IT WILL BE ENOUGH, BUT THERE IS THAT PRESSURE.

Borg: JOYCE, YOU COVER THE LEGISLATURE DAY IN AND DAY OUT, AND I'M INTERESTED IN WHAT MIKE JUST SAID. THAT'S GOING TO BE VERY TEMPTING FOR LEGISLATORS.

Russell: BUT IF YOU PUT UP -- AS KAY WAS SAYING, IF YOU PUT A BILL OUT THERE THAT -- YOU'VE GOT A CERTAIN CONTINGENT OF GAMBLING OPPONENTS. IN SPITE OF THE FACT THAT STATEWIDE, AMONG THE GENERAL POPULATION, I THINK THERE'S BEEN A SORT OF ACCEPTANCE OF GAMBLING. I DON'T THINK THAT'S NECESSARILY TRUE IN THE LEGISLATURE. AND ANYTIME YOU PUT A BILL UP THERE, THAT ONE SIMPLE THING THAT THEY CAN DO, WHICH THEY DID THE LAST TIME THEY HAD A GAMBLING BILL UP THERE, PUT AN AMENDMENT ON THERE TO BAN ATMs IN THE CASINOS, OKAY? THAT GETS ENOUGH VOTES -- THAT HAS ENOUGH VOTES TO PASS. THAT HAS ENOUGH VOTES, THEN, TO BRING DOWN WHATEVER IT'S ATTACHED TO.

Yepsen: I TAKE A LITTLE DIFFERENT VIEW. I THINK THE MONETARY PRESSURES THAT MIKE MENTIONED ARE SO GREAT THAT WITHIN A YEAR WE'LL HAVE SOME FORM OF EXPANDED GAMBLING IN IOWA. IT MAY HAPPEN IN THE DEAD OF NIGHT IN THE LEGISLATIVE SESSION, BUT SOMEBODY IS GOING TO WIND UP WITH MORE GAMBLING AND SAY THEY NEED TO MONEY, DEAN.

Borg: AND THE REFERENDUMS ARE PASSING. WATERLOO PASSED ONE THIS PAST WEEK.

Yepsen: WE ARE NOT AS DIVIDED AS WE USED TO BE ON GAMBLING ISSUES IN THIS STATE. COMMUNITIES SEE THIS AS A WAY TO FOSTER TOURISM, AND THAT PROVIDES ADDITIONAL PRESSURE TO DO SOMETHING.

Borg: KAY, YOU HAD A COMMENT.

Henderson: OH, GO AHEAD, DEAN.

Borg: WELL, I WAS GOING TO SAY -- I WAS GOING TO OBSERVE THAT HOW MANY YEARS AGO WAS IT THAT GOVERNOR BRANSTAD VETOED TWICE IN A ROW A LOTTERY -- STATE LOTTERY SAYING IT BEGINS TO OPEN THE DOOR TO GAMBLING IN IOWA. ATTITUDES HAVE CHANGED DRAMATICALLY SINCE THAT TIME.

Glover: I REMEMBER TERRY BRANSTAD'S SECOND VETO MESSAGE CITED HIS DEEP-SEATED, MORAL OPPOSITION TO GAMBLING AND ANY STATE THAT BUILT ITS FINANCIAL BASE ON A FOUNDATION OF GAMBLING WAS DOOMED TO HELL AND FIRE AND SO FORTH. THEN HE GOT BOOED AT A BASEBALL GAME, AND THEN HIS OPPOSITION TO GAMBLING WENT AWAY.

Yepsen: AND HE WAS RIGHT; IT DID LEAD TO EXPANDED GAMBLING. WHERE HE WAS WRONG IS THAT WE LOVE IT. WE LOVE OUR GAMBLING IN IOWA.

Borg: LET ME FLOAT ANOTHER IDEA HERE THAT THE REGENTS ARE FLOATING, AND THAT IS SOME BENEVOLENCE, I GUESS, ON TUITION INCREASES. NOW, IS THAT A BENEVOLENCE OR DID THEY HEAR THE HOOVES BEHIND THEM, EITHER THEM OR SOME STATE LEGISLATORS, OF PUBLIC OPINION MAKING THIS TOO DANGEROUS?

Russell: I THINK THERE'S SOME GENUINE CONCERN AT THE BOARD OF REGENTS THAT YOU PRICE TUITION TOO HIGH, IT STARTS TO AFFECT ENROLLMENT. AND THAT WAS ONE OF THE THINGS THAT THE BOARD OFFICE SAID IN MAKING THE RECOMMENDATION THIS YEAR FOR AN 8-PERCENT TUITION INCREASE, WHICH IS STILL PRETTY HEFTY, WAS THAT THEIR NUMBERS SHOWED A DECLINE IN FRESHMEN ENROLLMENT LAST YEAR. WELL, THERE'S PLENTY OF REASONS FOR THAT. ONE IS THAT BUDGET CUTBACKS LED THE UNIVERSITIES TO REDUCE THEIR MARKETING. THAT'S GOING TO REDUCE ENROLLMENT. BUT FOR WHATEVER REASON, ENROLLMENT WAS DOWN. THEY LOOK AT THAT, THEY SAID WE PROMISE WE WOULD TAKE A LOOK AND SEE HOW THESE HIGH TUITION INCREASES ARE AFFECTING ENROLLMENT. THERE APPEARS TO BE POSSIBLY A LINK, AND SO WE'RE GOING TO GO IN THERE WITH A LOWER TUITION RECOMMENDATION. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THAT, THOUGH, YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE A LOT OF PEOPLE SAYING THAT'S NOT ENOUGH, THE UNIVERSITIES ARE IN TROUBLE, AND THEY NEED MORE.

Yepsen: THE REGENTS -- THE REGENTS NEED TO MAKE IT CLEAR TO STUDENTS WHEN THEY COME IN WHAT THE COST OF THIS IS GOING TO BE. THEY HAVE NOT RAISED TUITIONS IN THE PAST. TUITIONS IN IOWA ARE STILL LOW COMPARED TO OTHER PEER INSTITUTIONS. AND I THINK WHAT STUDENTS WANT TO HAVE OUT OF THIS, AND PARENTS, IS SOME PREDICTABILITY IN WHAT THE TAB IS GOING TO BE FOUR YEARS FROM NOW.

Glover: AND I THINK REGENTS INSTITUTIONS ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO HAVE THE BULL'S-EYE RIGHT ON THEIR BACK, IN PART BECAUSE LEGISLATORS AND THIS GOVERNOR ARE NOT FACED WITH GOOD DECISIONS.

Borg: MIKE, I HAVE TO QUIT. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR THAT QUICK COMMENT, THOUGH. WE'LL BEING TRACKING IOWA ISSUES AND THE DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGNS DURING THE COMING WEEKS. IN FACT, ON "IOWA PRESS" NEXT WEEK, WE'LL BE TALKING WITH FORMER VERMONT GOVERNOR HOWARD DEAN. YOU'LL SEE OUR CONVERSATION WITH HOWARD DEAN REGULAR TIME: 7:30 FRIDAY, SUNDAY AT NOON. I'M DEAN BORG. THANKS FOR JOINING US TODAY.