Iowa Public Television

Yepsen: ON THE PRE-ELECTION FRONT, ONE POLITICAL PARTY SEEKS TO HOLD THE WHITE HOUSE WHILE THE OTHER WANTS IT BACK. WE'LL LOOK TO THE POLITICS OF THE CAMPAIGN OF 2004 WITH REPUBLICAN MIKE MAHAFFEY AND DEMOCRAT JERRY CRAWFORD ON THIS EDITION OF "IOWA PRESS."

FUNDING FOR THIS PROGRAM WAS PROVIDED BY "FRIENDS," THE IOWA PUBLIC TELEVISION FOUNDATION... GENERATIONS OF FAMILIES AND FRIENDS WHO FEEL PASSIONATE ABOUT THE PROGRAMS THEY WATCH ON IOWA PUBLIC TELEVISION; AND BY THE IOWA BANKERS ASSOCIATION... FOR PERSONAL, BUSINESS, AND COMMERCIAL NEEDS, IOWA BANKS HELP IOWANS REACH THEIR FINANCIAL GOALS.

ON STATEWIDE IOWA PUBLIC TELEVISION, THIS IS THE FRIDAY, OCTOBER 24 EDITION OF "IOWA PRESS." HERE IS DAVID YEPSEN.

Yepsen: THE GENERAL ELECTION OF NOVEMBER 2, 2004, IS JUST BETTER THAN A YEAR AWAY, AND A LOT CAN HAPPEN BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. STILL IT'S NOT TOO EARLY TO CONSIDER THE ELECTORAL PROSPECTS FOR THE NATION'S TWO POLITICAL PARTIES, BOTH AT THE NATIONAL AND STATE LEVELS. COMMANDING MOST OF THE ATTENTION AT THIS HOUR, OF COURSE, IS THE RACE FOR THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION FOR PRESIDENT, WHERE NINE CONTENDERS CONTINUE THEIR JOURNEY DOWN THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL. THESE DEMOCRATS AND A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE ELECTORATE SENSE A VULNERABILITY OF THE SITTING PRESIDENT, BOTH ON THE DOMESTIC FRONT AND THE FOREIGN POLICY ONE. STILL, IT'S WORTH REMEMBERING THAT INCUMBENCY HAS SOME OBVIOUS BENEFITS AND THAT REPUBLICANS CONTROL BOTH THE EXECUTIVE AND LEGISLATIVE BRANCHES AT THE FEDERAL LEVEL. AND LOCALLY, THE REPUBLICANS CONTROL BOTH CHAMBERS OF THE IOWA GENERAL ASSEMBLY AS WELL. TODAY WE DISCUSS THE POLITICAL LAY OF THE LAND WITH TWO PARTY INSIDERS. ATTORNEY MIKE MAHAFFEY OF MONTEZUMA IS A FORMER CHAIRMAN OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY OF IOWA AND A FORMER CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATE AS WELL. ATTORNEY JERRY CRAWFORD OF DES MOINES IS THE FORMER CHAIRMAN OF THE POLK COUNTY DEMOCRATS AND HAS SERVED IN THE NATIONAL CAMPAIGNS OF WALTER MONDALE, MIKE DUKAKIS, BILL CLINTON, AND AL GORE, AND NOW JOHN KERRY. GENTLEMEN, WELCOME ONCE AGAIN TO "IOWA PRESS." GOOD TO HAVE YOU BACK.

Mahaffey: THANK YOU.

Crawford: THANK YOU.

Yepsen: ALSO WITH US AT THE "IOWA PRESS" TABLE ARE JENEANE BECK, IOWA STATEHOUSE REPORTER WITH "KUNI PUBLIC RADIO," AND MIKE GLOVER, SENIOR POLITICAL REPORTER WITH THE "ASSOCIATED PRESS."

Glover: MR. CRAWFORD, GIVEN YOU HAVE ALREADY PICKED A HORSE IN THIS CAMPAIGN, TAKE OFF THAT PARTISAN HAT FOR A SECOND AND STEP BACK FOR A SECOND AND HANDICAP THIS DEMOCRATIC FIELD. WHO'S DOING SOMETHING RIGHT AND WHO'S DOING SOMETHING WRONG?

Crawford: I'M GOING TO TAKE OFF THE SENATOR KERRY HAT FOR A SECOND, BUT I HOPE YOU WON'T TELL HIM WHEN HE'S HERE NEXT WEEK.

Glover: I'LL KEEP IT FROM HIM.

Crawford: I THINK THAT IT'S A THREE-PERSON TOP TIER WITH CONGRESSMAN DICK GEPHARDT, GOVERNOR HOWARD DEAN, AND SENATOR KERRY. IF YOU LOOK AT THE POLLS IN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS THAT HAVE BEEN RELEASED, THAT ARE POLLS NOT OF DEMOCRATS BUT OF CAUCUS ATTENDING DEMOCRATS THAT USE THAT SCREEN -- SENATOR EDWARDS HAS RELEASED HIS POLL ON IOWA AND SO HAS SENATOR KERRY. THEY'RE ALL -- BOTH POLLS ARE WITHIN A POINT OR TWO, WHICH SHOW THAT THOSE THREE CANDIDATES ARE SOMEWHERE IN THE 20 TO 25 RANGE. I THINK INTERESTINGLY AND IMPORTANTLY, ONLY ABOUT A THIRD OF THE PEOPLE WHO SAY THEY'RE SUPPORTING ONE OF THOSE CANDIDATES SAY THEY ARE STRONGLY COMMITTED. IT'S HARD TO BELIEVE FOR THOSE OF US IN THE BUSINESS, BUT IT'S STILL EARLY IN THIS PROCESS IN TERMS OF THE PEOPLE WHO THAT WILL ACTUALLY SHOW UP CAUCUS NIGHT. IT'S WELL INTO THE PROCESS ORGANIZATIONALLY, BUT IT'S STILL EARLY IN THE PROCESS. ALL YOU HAVE TO DO IS LOOK BACK TO AN IOWA POLL THAT I REMEMBER BACK IN OCTOBER OF 1975. I GUY NAMED JIMMY CARTER WAS AT ONE PERCENT. HE DID PRETTY WELL IN THE CAUCUSES.

Yepsen: LIKE THEN, NOW THERE'S A HUGE UNDECIDED IN ALL THOSE POLLS.

Crawford: ABSOLUTELY.

Glover: MR. MAHAFFEY, WHAT DO YOU SAY TO THIS ARGUMENT? THESE CANDIDATES -- IT'S A LARGE AND ACTIVE FIELD OF ABOUT NINE -- ARGUE FROM DAWN TILL DUSK ABOUT EVERYTHING THAT YOU CAN THINK OF. BUT AT THE END OF THE DAY, AN ACTIVIST STEPS BACK AND LOOKS AT THESE GUYS AND SAYS, YOU KNOW, THERE'S NOT REALLY A DIME'S WORTH OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEM. THIS ONE WANTS TO GET RID OF ALL OF THE TAX CUT. THIS ONE WANTS TO GET RID OF PART OF THE TAX CUT. ALL OF THEM THINK A TAX CUT IS A BAD IDEA. ALL OF THEM THINK THAT THE WAY IRAQ HAS BEEN HANDLED IS WRONG. AT THE END OF THE DAY, IT'S GOING TO BOIL DOWN TO WHO THEY THINK CAN BEAT GEORGE BUSH, WHICH IS WHY THERE'S SUCH A LOOSE ATTACHMENT AND SUCH A LARGE UNCOMMITTED. IS THERE ANYTHING TO THAT ARGUMENT?

Mahaffey: I THINK THERE IS. ONE OF THE THINGS THAT HAS STRUCK ME AS AN OUTSIDER TO THE DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS IS HOW -- HOW KEENLY DEMOCRATS WANT TO BEAT GEORGE BUSH. IT IS THERE AND THERE'S NO QUESTION ABOUT THAT. IN SOME RESPECTS, IT'S GOING TO BOIL DOWN TO PERSONALITY. YOU'RE RIGHT; I THINK ON THE ISSUES, MANY OF THEM ARE THE SAME. I THINK DICK GEPHARDT IS HAVING A GOOD FALL. AND PART OF THAT IS HE HAS BEEN PATIENT WITH PEOPLE. HE'S LIKE AN OLD PAIR OF SHOES IN IOWA, AND I THINK SOME PEOPLE WERE TRYING ON SOME DIFFERENT SHOES BUT SOME OF THEM ARE COMING BACK TO THE OLD COMFORTABLE PAIR RIGHT NOW. AND I THINK THAT HELPS DICK GEPHARDT.

Yepsen: YOU KNOW, I WANT TO TURN THIS QUESTION AROUND IN OUR CONVERSATION AND THROW IT BACK TO MIKE AND JENEANE HERE ABOUT HOW THEY HANDICAP THIS RACE. I MEAN, JENEANE, YOU ARE OUT THERE TOO. WHAT DO YOU SEE? WHAT'S YOUR SENSE OF THIS RACE?

Beck: I SEE THE SAME THINGS I'VE SEEN FOR MONTHS, AND THAT'S WHAT STARTLES ME IS THAT, LIKE YOU'RE SAYING, THAT THERE ARE SO MANY UNDECIDEDS OUT THERE. YOU KNOW, JOHN EDWARDS CONTINUES TO DRAW DECENT CROWDS, BUT HE MOVES NOWHERE IN THE POLLS. JOHN KERRY HAS SOLID EVENTS WHEN HE'S HERE, BUT HE HASN'T MOVED UP. DEAN AND GEPHARDT, THE SAME SORT OF THING. DEAN DRAWS HUGE CROWDS WHEREVER YOU GO, AND I THINK HE'S ALSO BECOMING COMFORTABLE AS THE FRONT-RUNNER. HE FINDS A LITTLE LESS TIME FOR THE MEDIA, I THINK, AND MORE TIME FOR THE CROWDS. HE'S LESS EAGER TO SPEND TIME WITH US NOW THAT HE'S THE FRONT-RUNNER AND DOESN'T NEED OUR HELP AS MUCH. BUT THERE'S JUST NO MOVEMENT, SO I THINK WE'RE JUST WAITING TO SEE WHO KNOCKS ONE OFF.

Yepsen: MIKE, IS THAT YOUR TAKE?

Glover: WELL, WHAT I'VE SEEN IS I'VE SEEN CANDIDATES WHO ARE ACTIVISTS WHO ARE JUST SITTING THERE WAITING. I SEE A LOT OF ACTIVISTS WHO CAN LIVE WITH ANY PERSON IN THIS FIELD, WITH A JOHN KERRY, JOHN EDWARDS, HOWARD DEAN, DICK GEPHARDT, THEY CAN LIVE WITH THEM. THEY MAY NOT AGREE WITH THEM ON EVERY ISSUE, BUT THEY HAD BILL CLINTON FOR EIGHT YEARS WHO, YOU KNOW, STUCK IT TO THEM EVERY TIME THEY TURNED AROUND. THEY LIVED WITH THAT TOO. BUT THE POINT BEING I THINK PEOPLE ARE WAITING TO SEE WHO'S GOING TO GET HOT, WHO CAN BE THE GUY WHO EMERGES THAT CAN BEAT BUSH. I'LL GO WITH WHOEVER CAN BEAT BUSH.

Yepsen: JERRY, WHAT ABOUT THAT? WHAT DO YOU THINK DEMOCRATS ARE LOOKING FOR?

Crawford: WELL, I THINK MIKE MAHAFFEY WAS EXACTLY RIGHT WHEN HE SAID THAT A LOT OF THIS ENERGY IS BECAUSE HE SENSES THE DETERMINATION AMONG PARTY DEMOCRATS TO BEAT BUSH LIKE NEVER BEFORE. I'VE NEVER SEEN THE KIND OF ENERGY THAT EXISTS. AND IT DOESN'T REALLY MATTER WHICH CANDIDATE YOU'RE LISTENING TO; THE SAME LINES, ABSOLUTELY ENERGIZE THOSE CROWDS. AND YOU HAVE TO GIVE HOWARD DEAN CREDIT. HE WAS THE PERSON WHO FIRST TAPPED INTO THE ANGER. HE DID IT BY BEING A LITTLE ANGRY IN HIS OWN RIGHT, AND HE UNDERSTOOD THAT. AND THEN PEOPLE WHO WERE ALREADY OUT THERE ANGRY ON THE INTERNET SORT OF FOUND HIM, WHICH CREATED A FINANCIAL BASE, AND THAT'S ALL VERY GOOD. I WOULD POINT OUT, WITH OUR WITHOUT MY JOHN KERRY HAT ON THOUGH, THAT SUMMER MOMENTUM, EARLY FALL MOMENTUM HAS NEVER MEANT ANYTHING IN THE OUTCOME OF THE CAUCUS PROCESS. AND WE'RE GOING TO MOVE BEYOND THAT NOW, AND I THINK YOU'VE ACCURATELY OBSERVED -- DEMOCRATS ARE GOING TO SAY WHO IS READY TO BEAT GEORGE BUSH. AND I THINK ULTIMATELY THAT WILL COME DOWN TO A QUESTION OF WHO BEST TAKES CARE OF OUR COUNTRY'S SECURITY, WHO IS AMERICA -- NOT THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY, WHO IS AMERICA COMFORTABLE WITH FROM A SECURITY STANDPOINT RUNNING THE COUNTRY, AND ARE THEY A LEGITIMATE ALTERNATIVE TO PRESIDENT BUSH.

Glover: MR. MAHAFFEY, LET'S GO THROUGH SOME OF THESE CAMPAIGNS. LET'S START WITH -- I WON'T ASK HIM TO HANDICAP JOHN KERRY. I'LL START WITH YOU ON THAT ONE. TELL ME ABOUT THE JOHN KERRY CAMPAIGN. AS AN OUTSIDER, WHAT DO YOU SEE GOING ON THERE?

Mahaffey: WITH ALL DUE RESPECT TO MY FRIEND JERRY, AND I THINK HE DOES DRAW SOME DECENT CROWDS, BUT I DON'T SEE THAT HE HAS IGNITED THAT MUCH OF A SPARK, AT LEAST IN OUR PART OF THE -- OUR PART OF THE STATE. THERE IS A PATRICIAN ASPECT TO JOHN KERRY THAT I'M NOT SURE IS AS SUITABLE TO IOWA FROM A PERSONALITY STANDPOINT OF SOME OTHER CANDIDATES, AND I THINK THAT HURTS HIM SOME.

Glover: DOES HE WEAR WELL?

Mahaffey: YOU KNOW, IN ALL HONESTY, JERRY COULD PROBABLY ANSWER THAT BETTER AS AN INSIDER, BUT I JUST DON'T -- I DON'T HEAR PEOPLE TALKING AS MUCH ABOUT JOHN KERRY AS THEY ARE ABOUT DICK GEPHARDT AND HOWARD DEAN, AND WESLEY CLARK, TO BE QUITE HONEST WITH YOU.

Glover: MR. CRAWFORD, DOES THE ALOOFNESS FACTOR WORK IN IOWA?

Crawford: WELL, THERE'S A PATRICIAN REPUTATION BUT THAT'S DIFFERENT THAN A PATRICIAN REALITY. IF I WERE GOING TO CRITICIZE THE KERRY CAMPAIGN FROM THE OUTSIDE LOOKING IN, I'D SAY TWO THINGS: ONE, SENATOR KERRY HASN'T REALLY FOUND HIS RHYTHM YET.

Yepsen: IT'S GETTING LATE; ISN'T IT?

Crawford: I DON'T THINK IT'S LATE AT ALL. I THINK THAT HE'S BEEN MOVING SOLIDLY IN THAT DIRECTION, BUT I THINK THAT HE STILL NEEDS TO MAKE THAT ABSOLUTE CONNECTION ON A PERSONAL LEVEL, AND I THINK THAT'S THE POINT YOU'RE MAKING. AND SECONDLY -- AND DAVID YEPSEN AND I HAVE HAD THIS CONVERSATION BEFORE -- I THINK EARLY ON THERE WAS A LITTLE TOO MUCH TENDENCY TO RUN ALMOST AS AN INCUMBENT AS OPPOSED TO A STREET FIGHTING CHALLENGER FOR THE PRESIDENCY. AND I THINK THAT THE CAMPAIGN HAS HAD TO LEARN TO BE A LITTLE MORE NIMBLE, A LITTLE MORE FLEXIBLE, A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE.

Mahaffey: WHAT'S THE RHYTHM?

Beck: MR. CRAWFORD, THE STREET FIGHTER IN THE RACE IS HOWARD DEAN, AND HE IS DRAWING HUGE CROWDS, MANY OF THEM YOUNG PEOPLE. ARE THOSE THE KIND OF CROWDS, THOUGH, THAT WILL TURN UP ON CAUCUS NIGHT?

Crawford: WELL, THAT'S THE MOST FASCINATING THING. IF YOU LOOK AT POLLS, LIKE THERE WAS A ZOGBY POLL THIS WEEK, WHICH WAS DEMOCRATS, REGISTERED DEMOCRATS, YOU PICK UP A LOT OF THAT ENERGY. BUT IF YOU LOOK AT THE -- IF YOU POLL A CAUCUS OF ATTENDING DEMOCRATS, IT CHANGES DRAMATICALLY. AND HISTORICALLY AND SADLY, CAUCUS ATTENDING FOLKS IN IOWA TEND TO BE MUCH OLDER, NOT MUCH YOUNGER. IT'S A BIG CHALLENGE -- IT'S A BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GETTING A 24 YEAR OLD OR A 28 YEAR OLD TO STOP BY A POLLING PLACE FOR FIVE MINUTES AND CAST A VOTE ANYTIME IN A THIRTEEN-HOUR WINDOW VERSUS ON A COLD JANUARY NIGHT GOING INTO SOME CHURCH BASEMENT.

Beck: MR. MAHAFFEY, THOUGHTS ON DEAN?

Mahaffey: I THINK HE HAS -- I THINK EARLY ON HE BECAME A STAR IN IOWA, AND I THINK HE'S STILL THERE. I THINK HE'S GOT SOME SOLID SUPPORT. WHAT I THINK IS PERHAPS HAPPENING, THOUGH, TALKING ABOUT THE OLD SHOE, I THINK PART OF THE REASON GEPHARDT IS COMING BACK -- THERE IS SOME PASSION IN THE GEPHARDT CAMPAIGN TOO, AND IT IS COMING FROM THE LABOR UNIONS. I TALK TO PEOPLE IN THE UNIONS. THEY BELIEVE, YOU KNOW, THE OLD SAYING ABOUT "DANCING WITH WHO BRUNG YA." THEY ARE REALIZING THAT DICK GEPHARDT HAS BEEN WITH THEM FOREVER. AND IF YOU LOOK AT SOME OF THE RALLIES LIKE JIM HOFFA AND THE TEAMSTERS PUT ON, THERE'S SOME PASSION THERE, AND THEY ARE GOING TO BE THERE FOR DICK GEPHARDT. THOSE ARE THE PEOPLE THAT WILL SHOW UP AT THE CAUCUS.

Yepsen: MIKE, YOU WERE ON THE ROAD LAST WEEK WITH HOWARD DEAN UP IN NORTHERN IOWA. WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THIS DEAN PHENOMENON?

Glover: HE'S -- I THINK THE CAUCUSES WILL EVENTUALLY BOIL DOWN TO A TEST OF ORGANIZATIONAL STRENGTHS. DEAN IS BUILDING AN ORGANIZATION THAT WE AREN'T FAMILIAR WITH. IT'S A NEW ORGANIZATION. IT'S AN ORGANIZATION OF PEOPLE, SOME OF WHOM HAVE BEEN INVOLVED IN POLITICS, SOME OF WHOM FEEL A LITTLE BIT DISCONNECTED WITH DEMOCRATIC POLITICS. BUT IT'S A NEW KIND OF AN ORGANIZATION. AT THE END OF THE DAY, I THINK YOU'RE GOING TO SEE THIS NEW DEAN ORGANIZATION THAT'S UNTESTED -- WE DON'T KNOW ABOUT IT -- AGAINST THE TRADITIONAL, OLD, DEMOCRATIC, LABOR-DRIVEN COALITION THAT WE DO KNOW. WE KNOW THAT ONE OUT OF THREE PEOPLE WHO SHOW UP FOR A CAUCUS ON JANUARY 19 WILL BE FROM A UNION HOUSEHOLD. WE KNOW THOSE PEOPLE WILL SHOW UP. WE KNOW THEY'LL BE FOR DICK GEPHARDT LARGELY, MORE THAN ANY OTHER CANDIDATE. WE DON'T KNOW ABOUT THE HOWARD DEAN ORGANIZATION. BUT I HAVE TO SAY WHEN I SHOW UP AT A RESTAURANT IN ELKADER ON A WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT 2:30 AND THERE ARE 175 PEOPLE IN A ROOM, I HAVE TO TAKE NOTICE OF THAT.

Yepsen: YOU KNOW, THAT'S PRETTY SIGNIFICANT THAT HE'S GETTING THAT KIND OF CROWD IN A RURAL SETTING IN THIS STATE. WE MAKE A BIG DEAL -- THESE CANDIDATES SHOW UP IN THE LARGER TOWNS IN IOWA AND THEY GET GOOD CROWDS AND THAT'S EXPECTED. BUT THERE ARE A LOT OF DELEGATES TO BE WON IN RURAL IOWA AS WELL.

Glover: WE FORGET THIS.

Mahaffey: AND HE'S FROM A RURAL STATE, DAVID, TOO.

Yepsen: WELL, THAT'S WHAT HE SAYS, HE'S RURAL.

Mahaffey: ALTHOUGH, I THINK HE'S MORE LATTE THAN LUNCH BUCKET. [ LAUGHTER ]

Glover: YOU CAN HAVE A LATTE IN YOUR LUNCH BUCKET. WE FORGET THAT A LOT OF CANDIDATES SAY, NOW, WHY WOULD I GO TO ALLAMAKEE COUNTY? ALLAMAKEE COUNTY IS A PRETTY DARN REPUBLICAN COUNTY. WHY WOULD I GO THERE? WELL, BECAUSE ON JANUARY 19 THERE BE WILL BE SOME DEMOCRATS IN ALLAMAKEE COUNTY. THEY'LL HAVE A CAUCUS AND THEY'LL ELECT DELEGATES AND THOSE DELEGATES ARE GOING TO GET COUNTED. AND I CAN TELL YOU THAT I THINK IN ALLAMAKEE COUNTY, HOWARD DEAN IS PROBABLY GOING TO WIN. AND THOSE DELEGATES THERE WILL COUNT JUST AS MUCH AS --

Mahaffey: I HAVE A FRIEND THAT'S THE CHAIRWOMAN OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IN BUENA VISTA COUNTY. AND SHE SAID THAT THEY HAVE SEEN THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES THERE MORE THAN EVER BEFORE. I MEAN WESTERN IOWA IS NOT BEING LEFT OUT OF THIS, AND THAT'S VERY INTERESTING. THEY'RE REALLY SPENDING A LOT OF TIME IN RURAL IOWA.

Crawford: MIKE, I THINK YOU BETTER BE A LITTLE CAREFUL IN ALLOCATING ALL OF ORGANIZED LABOR TO DICK GEPHARDT, BECAUSE THE 800-POUND GORILLA, THE AFSCME UNION, HASN'T TAKEN A POSITION YET. SEIU HASN'T TAKEN A POSITION YET. AND AFTER THIRTY YEARS OF WORKING IN PARTNERSHIP WITH THE AFL-CIO, DICK GEPHARDT DOESN'T HAVE THE AFL-CIO ENDORSEMENT YET. AND I CAN ASSURE YOU THAT WHETHER YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT SENATOR KERRY OR GOVERNOR DEAN OR SENATOR EDWARDS, WHO, BY THE WAY, HAD A TERRIFIC APPEARANCE AT THE AFSCME MEETING RECENTLY, THOSE UNIONS ARE STILL VERY MUCH IN PLAY AND WOULD TAKE ORGANIZED LABOR AND SPREAD IT ACROSS THE MAP IF THEY WENT ELSEWHERE.

Mahaffey: RIGHT. BUT GEPHARDT, I MEAN HE HAS THE LION'S SHARE OF THE ENDORSEMENT SO FAR. I THINK YOU MAKE A GOOD POINT, BUT I STILL THINK THAT WHEN IT COMES DOWN TO IT --

Beck: BUT WILL THE RANK AND FILE FOLLOW AN ENDORSEMENT... IF THEY'RE WORRIED THAT THAT PERSON CAN'T CARRY THE PARTY ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE FALL? AND THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME CONCERN.

Mahaffey: YEAH, AND THAT'S THE DOWN SIDE FOR GEPHARDT. I THINK THE REASON HE'S HAVING A GOOD FALL IS THAT I THINK PEOPLE ARE STARTING TO THINK THAT HIS CAMPAIGN IS PUTTING THINGS TOGETHER, HE'S SOLID, HE'S NOT PARTICULARLY FLASHY, BUT THEY THINK THAT MAYBE HE DOES HAVE A CHANCE. AND IF THEY BELIEVE THAT HE DOES, THEN I THINK THOSE UNION VOTES WILL COME HOME.

Crawford: AND HE'S GOT JOHN LAPP WHO RAN THE GOVERNOR'S REELECTION CAMPAIGN AND IS DOING A HECK OF A JOB.

Mahaffey: ABSOLUTELY.

Crawford: HE'S ONE OF THE BEST OPERATIVES IN THE STATE.

Glover: SO YOUR POINT ABOUT AFSCME IS VERY WELL TAKEN. GERALD MCENTEE, AS YOU KNOW, IS SORT OF QUIETLY IN YOUR GUY'S POCKET.

Crawford: WELL, FROM YOUR LIPS. [ LAUGHTER ]

Yepsen: ONE OTHER POINT ABOUT THE LABOR THING, JENEANE, IS WHEN A UNION ENDORSES -- YOU'VE GOT TO REMEMBER -- WE NEED TO REMEMBER THESE CAUCUSES ARE PUBLIC EVENTS. IT'S NOT REAL LIKELY THAT A LABOR UNION MEMBER IS GOING TO WANT TO GO OUT TO A CAUCUS AND STAND UP PUBLICLY AGAINST THE CANDIDATE THAT HIS UNION --

Beck: IT'S NOT LIKE GOING INTO A VOTING BOOTH WHERE HE CAN CAST IT IN SILENCE.

Mahaffey: I DON'T THINK TOO MANY TEAMSTERS ARE GOING TO WANT TO EXPLAIN TO JAMES HOFFA WHY THEY DIDN'T VOTE FOR DICK GEPHARDT.

Glover: WELL, THAT'S ONE OF THE FASCINATING THINGS ABOUT THIS ORGANIZATIONAL TURNOUT. IF YOU SHOW UP AT A CAUCUS, LOTS OF THINGS HAPPEN. IF YOU DON'T MEET THE 15-PERCENT VIABILITY THRESHOLD, YOU'VE GOT TO GO SHOPPING AROUND. ALL THIS KIND OF TRADING AND HORSE THING GOES ON. WILL ONE OF THESE NEW DEAN PEOPLE BE UP TO DEALING A TEAMSTER WHEN THEY SHOW UP AT A CAUCUS AND THE DEAN PERSON SHOWS UP AND THE KUCINICH PEOPLE AREN'T AT 15 PERCENT AND THERE'S A TEAMSTER OVER HERE WHEELING AND DEALING WITH THEM? CAN SOME NEW COLLEGE STUDENT THAT HAS SHOWN UP GET IN THE BALL GAME WITH THIS GUY AND -- I DON'T KNOW.

Crawford: THAT'S RIGHT. AND, MIKE, YOU MAKE A VERY IMPORTANT POINT. BEING SOMEBODY'S SECOND CHOICE IS WORTH REAL GOLD IN THE CAUCUSES. AND OBJECTIVITY PREVENTS ME FROM RECITING TO YOU WHAT THE POLLS SHOW ABOUT WHO IS EVERYBODY'S SECOND CHOICE.

Yepsen: BUT THE REASON -- LET'S EXPLAIN THAT. THE REASON THAT'S IMPORTANT IS BECAUSE TO GET ANYTHING IN A CAUCUS, YOU FIRST HAVE TO GET 15 PERCENT.

Crawford: EXACTLY.

Yepsen: IT'S A WINNOWING THRESHOLD.

Crawford: SO IF YOU HAVE 12 PERCENT OF THE PEOPLE AT THE CAUCUS WHO ARE FOR JOHN EDWARDS, THEY'RE NOT VIABLE, WHICH MEANS THEY HAVE TO AFFILIATE WITH ANOTHER GROUP. AND THEN WHOEVER THEIR SECOND CHOICE IS BECOMES VERY IMPORTANT. IT MATTERS TO PEOPLE.

Mahaffey: AND WHO IS EVERYBODY'S SECOND CHOICE?

Crawford: WELL, I'LL LET YOU --

Yepsen: JERRY, LET ME PURSUE ONE OTHER THING HERE ABOUT THIS DEAN PHENOMENON BEFORE WE MOVE ON TO GEPHARDT. YOU KNOW, WE LOOK AT THESE CROWDS AND A LOT OF NEW PEOPLE AND A LOT OF YOUNGER PEOPLE, AND YET YOU GO BACK TO THAT LIST THAT MIKE GLOVER MENTIONED A MOMENT AGO: 105,000 LIKELY DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS GOERS ARE IN THE PARTY'S COMPUTER; A THIRD OF THEM ARE OVER 65; 70 PERCENT -- 75 PERCENT ARE OVER AGE FIFTY; AND LESS THAN 2,000 OF THEM ARE UNDER AGE 24. I MEAN ARE YOUNG PEOPLE IMPORTANT? THEY'LL SHOW UP -- THE BIRKENSTOCK VOTE. THEY'RE GOING TO SHOW UP AT A RALLY OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT, BUT ON A COLD JANUARY NIGHT, WILL THEY BE THERE?

Crawford: WELL, I HOPE THEY DO SHOW UP. THEY'RE NOT ALL FOR HOWARD DEAN, FIRST OF ALL, THOUGH HE'S DONE A GREAT JOB IN THAT CONSTITUENCY. I HOPE THEY DO SHOW UP. AND REGARDLESS, THEY'RE STILL GOING TO BE PAYING ATTENTION COME NOVEMBER. AND THAT'S WHY IT'S VERY HARD FOR THE REPUBLICANS TO WIN IOWA IN NOVEMBER AFTER WE'VE HAD A DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY.

Glover: MR. GEPHARDT, MR. MAHAFFEY, TELL ME WHAT HE'S DONE RIGHT, WHAT HE'S DONE WRONG, WHAT HIS CHALLENGES ARE.

Mahaffey: HE HAS SHOWN PATIENCE WITH IOWANS, SOME OF WHOM WERE WITH SOMEBODY ELSE TO BEGIN WITH. I TALKED TO A DEMOCRATIC ACTIVIST IN POWESHIEK COUNTY LAST NIGHT. SHE SWITCHED FROM EDWARDS TO GEPHARDT. SHE SAID, "I ALWAYS LIKED DICK GEPHARDT," BUT I THINK SHE WANTED TO MAKE SURE IT LOOKED LIKE HE HAD A CHANCE. HE WAS PATIENT ABOUT IT. HE DIDN'T THROW A FIT. PEOPLE ARE STARTING TO COME HOME. I THINK HE'S HAD SOME VERY EFFECTIVE TELEVISION ADS THAT CUT TO THE HEART OF SOME ISSUES THAT HE SHOWS SOME PASSION ON. AND PEOPLE DO LIKE PASSION IN THE IOWA CAUCUSES.

Crawford: I AGREE. HE'S HAD A GOOD FALL. HE'S ABSOLUTELY SOLID. HE'S NOT GOING TO -- HE KNOWS WHAT HE BELIEVES. HE KNOWS WHAT HIS POSITIONS ARE. I ALREADY MENTIONED JOHN LAPP. IT'S A GOOD EFFORT. THE ISSUE WITH DICK GEPHARDT IS, NUMBER ONE, CAN HE ENERGIZE PEOPLE INTO THINKING THIS IS SOMETHING NEW AND EXCITING AFTER DOING THIS FOR FIFTEEN YEARS AND, NUMBER TWO, DO PEOPLE THINK HE CAN WIN NEXT NOVEMBER. THOSE ARE HIS CHALLENGES.

Beck: JOHN EDWARDS HAS ALSO STARTED RUNNING TELEVISION ADS, YET YOU MENTIONED HE'S ONE OF THOSE SECOND-TIER CANDIDATE WHO MAY NOT GET 15 PERCENT ON CAUCUS NIGHT. WHY NOT? WHAT'S WRONG?

Crawford: WELL, I THINK HE'S DONE MORE THAN TELEVISION COMMERCIALS. HE'S USED MORE OF HIS ALLOTMENT. AND WE SHOULD TALK ABOUT THE CAP BEFORE WE LEAVE TODAY.

Yepsen: WHAT CAP? [ LAUGHTER ]

Crawford: HE'S USED UP MORE OF HIS CAP ALLOTMENT ON MEDIA THAN ANY OF THE OTHER CANDIDATES, AND I THINK IT WAS A GOOD DECISION BY HIM. HE WAS FIGHTING FOR SURVIVAL, SIXTY DAYS. HE FIRED BULLETS. HE'S STILL IN THE RACE. HE'S STILL SITTING THERE. SO I THINK IT'S WHAT HE HAD TO DO. IT DOES PUT HIM AT A HANDICAP IF HE LIVES WITHIN THE CAP, BUT HE HAS REALLY NO CHOICE IF YOU LOOK AT THE FUND-RAISING REPORTS. IT PUTS HIM IN A HOLE BECAUSE WHEN VOTERS REALLY START MOVING, HE'S GOING TO HAVE FEWER BULLETS IN HIS HOLSTER TO RUN ON TELEVISION.

Mahaffey: HE DOESN'T HAVE MUCH AMMUNITION LEFT. AND THOUGH PEOPLE SEEM TO LIKE HIM, IT HASN'T MOVED HIM IN THE POLLS. AND THE PEOPLE I TALK TO WILL SAY THINGS, LIKE THE ONE LAST NIGHT, "WELL, I LIKE JOHN EDWARDS BUT I DON'T THINK HE'S GOING ANYWHERE." SO I THINK HE'S GOT A PROBLEM.

Yepsen: MIKE, LET'S TURN TO THE BIGGER PICTURE OF WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK IN THE NEWS. JOE LIEBERMAN AND WESLEY CLARK SAID, "WE'RE NOT CAMPAIGNING IN IOWA." WHAT DOES THAT MEAN TO OTHER CAMPAIGNS AND, SECOND, WHAT DOES IT MEAN TO THE IOWA CAUCUS?

Mahaffey: WELL, THAT'S A GOOD QUESTION. I THINK, IN ALL HONESTY, THAT WES CLARK MADE A WISE DECISION POLITICALLY NOT TO BE IN IOWA. I'M NOT SURE THAT JOE LIEBERMAN DID. THE REASON CLARK DID IS BECAUSE THIS IS A DIFFICULT STATE TO GET TRACTION IN OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME, AND IT'S VERY MUCH RETAIL POLITICS, AS WE KNOW. THESE PEOPLE -- THESE ACTIVISTS GET CALLS ALL THE TIME FROM THESE CANDIDATES. HE DOESN'T HAVE TIME FOR THAT. HE'S LOOKING AT THE BIGGER PICTURE. AND IF I HAD BEEN HIS STRATEGIST -- ONE OF HIS STRATEGISTS, I WOULD HAVE TOLD HIM TO DO THE SAME THING. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN? WE'LL SEE. IF IT BECOMES A CANDIDATE -- DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE WESLEY CLARK, I THINK IOWA IS STILL GOING TO BE IMPORTANT. AND I DON'T THINK GORDON FISCHER AND THE IOWA DEMOCRATS ARE GOING TO SAY WE'RE GOING TO BOYCOTT BECAUSE WESLEY CLARK WASN'T IN IOWA.

Yepsen: JERRY CRAWFORD, THE SAME QUESTION. I WANT EVERYBODY TO WEIGH IN ON THIS QUESTION. LIEBERMAN AND CLARK ARE OUT, WHAT'S IT MEAN TO THE OTHER CAMPAIGNS AND WHAT'S IT MEAN TO THE FUTURE OF THE IOWA CAUCUSES?

Crawford: WELL, FIRST OF ALL, WHAT IT MEANS TO THE OTHER CAMPAIGNS IS I THINK FOURTH PLACE IS NOW LAST IN THE IOWA CAUCUSES, JUST TO PUT IT BLUNTLY.

Yepsen: WELL, YOU'VE GOT FOUR CONTENDERS OUT OF THE NINE --

Crawford: THAT APPEAR TO HAVE A CHANCE TO BE SUCCESSFUL HERE. SO FOURTH PLACE ISN'T ANY GOOD AT ALL. THIRD PLACE, YOU BETTER HAVE A PRETTY GOOD SPIN DOCTOR.

Yepsen: SO IOWA WILL STILL WINNOW THE FIELD OF CANDIDATES.

Crawford: MORE THAN EVER, I THINK. WHAT DOES IT MEAN THAT THEY SKIPPED THE STATE? I DON'T THINK THEY HAD ANY CHOICE. CLARK CAME IN HERE, TOOK A HARD LOOK, FROM INSIDE AND OUTSIDE THE STATE, ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR IOWA. WE'VE TALKED ABOUT HOW VOTERS HAVEN'T MADE THEIR MINDS UP YET, BUT ORGANIZATIONAL DEMOCRATS HAVE. THERE WASN'T A LOT THERE FOR HIM TO PUT TOGETHER, AND HE WASN'T CONNECTING IN IOWA.

Yepsen: BUT JOE LIEBERMAN STARTED HIS RACE EARLY. HE COULD HAVE COME IN HERE IN TO BUILD AN ORGANIZATION. THERE ARE SOME CENTRIST DEMOCRATS IN IOWA.

Crawford: GIVE SENATOR LIEBERMAN CREDIT. HE DID STAND BACK UNTIL AL GORE MADE A FINAL DECISION. AND I THINK, IN RETROSPECT, IT WAS FATAL TO ANY CHANCE HE MIGHT HAVE HAD. AND HE DOESN'T -- AND HE DOESN'T CONNECT WITH PEOPLE, AT LEAST NOT IN IOWA.

Yepsen: JENEANE, SAME QUESTION. WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THIS QUESTION OF WHAT DOES IT MEAN TO THE OTHER CANDIDATES AND WHAT'S IT MEAN TO THE FUTURE OF THE CAUCUSES?

Beck: WELL, THE FACT THAT CLARK GOT OUT COULD HELP THE JOHN KERRY'S OF THE WORLD, BECAUSE PEOPLE LIKED CLARK. AND WHEN I WENT TO HIS EVENT, WHAT THEY TOLD ME THEY LIKED ABOUT CLARK WAS HIS SENSE OF DUTY, THAT HE'D SERVED THE COUNTRY, AND THAT THEY THOUGHT HE WOULD BE TOPS ON FOREIGN AFFAIRS. AND IF HE'S NOT IN THE RACE, THE PEOPLE THAT ARE LOOKING AT THE FOREIGN AFFAIRS ISSUE MAY GO TO JOHN KERRY. NOW, WHAT IT DOES TO IOWA, IF HE OR LIEBERMAN WOULD GET THE NOMINATION, IOWA IS IN TROUBLE BECAUSE THERE ARE STATES THAT HAVE WANTED TO KICK US OUT OF THE NUMBER ONE SPOT FOR YEARS, AND THAT GIVES THEM AMMO.

Yepsen: MIKE?

Glover: THE ANSWER IS THE EFFECT ON THE OTHER CANDIDATES IS PRETTY MINIMAL. JOE LIEBERMAN HAD NOT BEEN HERE A LOT. WESLEY CLARK STARTED LATE. NEITHER ONE OF THEM HAD GENERATED LARGE PUBLIC FOLLOWINGS IN IOWA, SO THEIR GETTING OUT DOESN'T HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON THE OTHER CANDIDATES. JENEANE HIT THE NAIL RIGHT ON THE HEAD. IF DICK GEPHARDT IS THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE IN 2004, IT WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON THE IOWA CAUCUSES. IF WESLEY CLARK OR JOE LIEBERMAN IS THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE IN 2004, IOWA IS DONE.

Beck: WE'VE KIND OF WRUNG OUT THE ISSUE EXCEPT FOR MAYBE THE ISSUE OF THE FINANCIAL CAPS. WHICH CANDIDATES -- IS HOWARD DEAN GOING TO SKIP OVER THAT AND JUST FUND HIS OWN CAMPAIGN? WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN WITH THAT? WHAT ABOUT SENATOR KERRY, WHO HAS MONEY IN HIS POCKET AS WELL?

Crawford: WELL, I THINK THAT SENATOR KERRY'S CAMPAIGN IS WATCHING GOVERNOR DEAN'S CAMPAIGN. AND GOVERNOR DEAN HAS RAISED A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF MONEY IN SMALL INCREMENTS, WHICH MEANS THAT HE HAS A TREMENDOUS CHECK WAITING FOR HIM FROM A FEDERAL MATCHING STANDPOINT IF HE STAYS WITHIN THE CAP. SO IT'S A TOUGHER DECISION THAN PEOPLE REALIZE.

Yepsen: LET'S TURN TO THE BIG PICTURE OF THE FALL OF '04. EVENTUALLY THE DEMOCRATS ARE GOING TO COME UP WITH A NOMINEE. MIKE MAHAFFEY, HOW DO YOU HANDICAP THE FALL RACE IN IOWA BETWEEN GEORGE BUSH AND CANDIDATE "X"?

Mahaffey: THE BUSH CAMPAIGN WILL BE VERY ACTIVE HERE. I THINK IT WILL BE DIFFICULT BECAUSE OF THE FACT OF THE CHINESE WATER TORTURE OF THESE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES, THE SLOW DRIP FOR A YEAR OF, YOU KNOW, THE NEGATIVE ADS. LET ME SAY SOMETHING ABOUT THE DEMOCRATIC FIELD. AND I THINK THERE ARE SOME STRONG CANDIDATES THERE. BUT I WAS TALKING TO MY DAUGHTER, MARY KATHLEEN, THE OTHER NIGHT. SHE MADE AN INTERESTING COMMENT. SHE SAID, "THEY SEEM TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A PESSIMISTIC LOT." AND I THINK ONE OF THE THINGS THE DEMOCRATS ARE GOING TO HAVE TO DO IN IOWA AND ELSEWHERE IS THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE TO CONVINCE PEOPLE THAT THERE IS INDEED HOPE AND PACKAGE IT IN SUCH A WAY THAT IT DOESN'T APPEAR AS IF WHAT IS ATTEMPTING TO BE -- THEY'RE TRYING TO CARRY THE DAY FOR PESSIMISM.

Glover: THAT'S A GREAT POINT. WHAT WAS FRANKLIN ROOSEVELT'S THEME SONG IN MIDDLE OF THE GREAT DEPRESSION?

Mahaffey: EXACTLY.

Glover: "HAPPY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN."

Mahaffey: THEY NEED TO BE A LITTLE BIT MORE LIKE FDR. AND I THINK THAT'S A PROBLEM FOR THEM; I REALLY DO.

Yepsen: MIKE, YOU GUYS HAVEN'T CARRIED THIS STATE SINCE 1984 --

Mahaffey: THAT'S TRUE.

Yepsen: YOUR TURNOUT EFFORT IS NOT AS GOOD AS THE DEMOCRATS ARE.

Mahaffey: WELL, WE'RE GETTING BETTER.

Yepsen: WHY ARE WE GIVING GEORGE BUSH A CHANCE AT ALL OF TAKING IOWA'S SEVEN ELECTORAL VOTES?

Mahaffey: BECAUSE I THINK -- FIRST OF ALL, HE ONLY LOST IT BY LESS THAN 5,000 LAST TIME, AND I THINK THAT YOU'RE GOING TO SEE A REAL EFFORT HERE. THESE SEVEN ELECTORAL -- WE FOUND OUT IN 2000 THAT PLACES LIKE IOWA AND WISCONSIN AND NEW MEXICO, THEY MATTER. AND SO I THINK IT'S GOING TO BE A HORSE RACE.

Yepsen: JERRY, SAFE DEMOCRATIC?

Crawford: ABSOLUTELY NOT SAFE DEMOCRATIC. YOU CAN TELL THIS ADMINISTRATION HAS WORKED IOWA LIKE NOTHING BEFORE. PEOPLE KEEP TALKING ABOUT HOW THEY CAN'T FIND THE WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION. THEY KEEP BEING UNLEASHED BY THE REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE ALL OVER THE NATION. I THINK THAT THEY'RE GOING TO DEFINITELY FIGHT FOR IOWA. WE HAVE A HUGE ORGANIZATIONAL ADVANTAGE BECAUSE OF THE CAUCUSES. AND ASSUMING WE NOMINATE SOMEBODY WHO THE COUNTRY FINDS TO BE MAINSTREAM, I THINK WE'LL BE FINE.

Glover: WHY DO YOU THINK GEORGE BUSH IS VULNERABLE?

Crawford: I THINK GEORGE BUSH IS VULNERABLE FOR THREE REASONS. FIRST AND FOREMOST, PEOPLE THINK THAT HE DID NOT DISCHARGE THE RESPONSIBILITY OF A COMPETENT FOREIGN POLICY ADEQUATELY. NOT THAT THEY DISAGREE WITH THE NOBLE GOAL OF DEALING WITH SADDAM HUSSEIN, BUT THEY DON'T LIKE THE WAY HE WENT ABOUT IT. HE DID IT ALIENATING PEOPLE ALL OVER THE WORLD INSTEAD OF GOING IN THE WAY HIS FATHER DID WITH PARTNER COUNTRIES.

Mahaffey: I THINK THAT'S MORE OF A POINT IN THE DEMOCRATIC CONSTITUENCY THAN IT IS IN THE INDEPENDENT CONSTITUENCY, JERRY.

Crawford: I'M NOT SURE ABOUT THE SECOND PART, BUT I'LL TELL YOU -- OKAY, THEN LET ME MOVE ON TO NUMBER TWO, WHICH CUTS ACROSS PARTY LINES, AND THAT'S THE ECONOMY. AND, OF COURSE, WE DON'T KNOW YET WHAT THE ECONOMY IS GOING TO BE NEXT SUMMER. BUT WE KNOW RIGHT NOW THAT PEOPLE WHO WANTED TO RETIRE CAN'T BECAUSE OF THE DECREASE IN VALUE OF THEIR 401(k). UNEMPLOYMENT HAS BEEN MUCH HIGHER THAN IT SHOULD BE AND THAN IT HAS BEEN. SO ECONOMICALLY PEOPLE ARE VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THIS ADMINISTRATION. RIGHT-TRACK/WRONG-TRACK NUMBERS ARE OVERWHELMINGLY NEGATIVE FOR THE PRESIDENT'S REELECTION. AND THE THIRD THING IS I THINK THERE'S A GENERAL CONCERN ABOUT TONE. YOU DON'T HAVE TO DO ANYTHING MORE TO ENERGIZE DEMOCRATS THAN TO SAY JOHN ASHCROFT. AND I THINK THAT THAT PLAYS NEGATIVELY FOR THE ADMINISTRATION.

Mahaffey: AND THAT'S TRUE FOR DEMOCRATS BUT I'M NOT SURE IN TERMS OF WHETHER IT'S TRUE FOR INDEPENDENTS.

Glover: DEMOCRATS HATE JOHN ASHCROFT. I DON'T KNOW HOW MANY INDEPENDENTS DO.

Mahaffey: RIGHT.

Glover: MR. CRAWFORD, LET'S TURN TO THE STATE FOR A SECOND. WE'RE JUST ABOUT OUT OF TIME. WE'VE ONLY GOT A MINUTE OR TWO LEFT. WHY CAN'T YOU PEOPLE FIND ANYBODY TO RUN AGAINST CHUCK GRASSLEY, OTHER THAN ALL THE OBVIOUS REASONS?

Crawford: WELL, MY UNDERSTANDING JUST IN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS IS THAT THE PARTY HAS BEEN HAVING SERIOUS DISCUSSIONS WITH SECRETARY OF STATE CHET CULVER, THAT HE'S TAKING A HARD LOOK AT THIS. I KNOW PEOPLE THINK THAT HE COULD RUN A VERY GOOD CAMPAIGN, AND THEY'RE ENCOURAGING HIM TO. AND I EXPECT HIM TO TAKE A HARD LOOK AT THIS IN THE NEXT MONTH.

Glover: MR. MAHAFFEY, IS THERE ANY REASON TO RUN AGAINST CHUCK GRASSLEY?

Mahaffey: THE GRASSLEY CAMPAIGN IS NOT TAKING ANYTHING FOR GRANTED, I CAN TELL YOU THAT. AND THEY STILL BELIEVE -- PEOPLE WITHIN THINK THERE'S A CHANCE OF SOMETHING LIKE A CHET CULVER, SALLY PEDERSEN COULD RUN. AND THEY KNOW THAT IF THAT HAPPENS, IT WILL BE A CLOSER RACE. SO THEY'RE NOT TAKING ANYTHING FOR GRANTED.

Yepsen: MIKE, WE'VE GOT THIRTY SECONDS LEFT. THE OTHER BIG RACE IN IOWA WILL BE THE BATTLE FOR THE LEGISLATURE. CAN REPUBLICANS HOLD ON TO THE LEGISLATURE? HOW WORRIED ARE YOU?

Mahaffey: I THINK THERE IS SOME WORRY THERE, PARTICULARLY IN THE HOUSE, 53/47. YOU ONLY HAVE TO PICK UP FOUR. AND THE THING ABOUT LEGISLATIVE RACES IS THEY SOMETIMES BOIL DOWN TO PERSONALITY BECAUSE YOU'RE CLOSER TO THE PEOPLE AND YOU CAN GET THE RIGHT CANDIDATE THAT CAN CROSS PARTY LINES.

Yepsen: JERRY, IN FIVE SECONDS.

Crawford: OUR NEW STATE CHAIR, GORDON FISCHER, IS TERRIFIC AT THIS KIND OF STUFF.