Iowa Public Television

IOWA PRESS #3119 >>

Borg: INTENSE CAMPAIGNING AS IOWA DEMOCRATS PONDER A PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE. WE'LL DISCUSS THE CAUCUS PROCESS WITH IOWA DEMOCRATIC PARTY CHAIR GORDON FISCHER ON THIS EDITION OF "IOWA PRESS."

FUNDING FOR THIS PROGRAM WAS PROVIDED BY "FRIENDS," THE IOWA PUBLIC TELEVISION FOUNDATION... GENERATIONS OF FAMILIES AND FRIENDS WHO FEEL PASSIONATE ABOUT THE PROGRAMS THEY WATCH ON IOWA PUBLIC TELEVISION.

AND BY THE IOWA BANKERS ASSOCIATION... FOR PERSONAL, BUSINESS, AND COMMERCIAL NEEDS, IOWA BANKS HELP IOWANS REACH THEIR FINANCIAL GOALS.

ON STATEWIDE IOWA PUBLIC TELEVISION, THIS IS THE FRIDAY, JANUARY 9 EDITION OF "IOWA PRESS." HERE IS DEAN BORG.

Borg: A WEEK FROM MONDAY IS THE DAY OF RECKONING FOR DEMOCRATS SEEKING THEIR PARTY'S PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION, AND IOWA IS IN THE INTERNATIONAL MEDIA SPOTLIGHT. IOWA'S FIRST-IN THE-NATION PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE CAUCUSES TEST THE CANDIDATES' APPEAL AND HOW THEIR MESSAGES HAVE CONNECTED WITH IOWA DEMOCRATS. IT'S ALSO A TEST, TOO, FOR THE STATE PARTY ORGANIZATIONS. THE STATE PARTY ORGANIZATIONS MUST CATER TO THE NEEDS OF NINE CONTENTIOUS PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGNS. THAT IN ITSELF IS A TEST IN DIPLOMACY. BUT CLOSER TO THE PROCESS ARE THE GET-OUT-THE-VOTE STRATEGIES, EXIT POLLING, AND THE EXPEDITIOUS RESULTS REPORTING FROM THE PRECINCT CAUCUSES AROUND THE STATE, NOT TO MENTION THE INTANGIBLES, SUCH AS WEATHER CONDITIONS, ON CAUCUS NIGHT. AND ALL THAT IS PLAYED OUT IN THE GLARE OF NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL MEDIA SPOTLIGHTS. WELL, TO HELP US SORT THROUGH THE DETAILS IS STATE PARTY DEMOCRATIC CHAIRMAN GORDON FISCHER. WELCOME BACK TO "IOWA PRESS."

Fischer: THANKS FOR HAVING ME, DEAN.

Borg: AND ACROSS THE TABLE: "DES MOINES REGISTER" POLITICAL COLUMNIST DAVID YEPSEN AND "ASSOCIATED PRESS" SENIOR POLITICAL REPORTER MIKE GLOVER.

Glover: MR. FISCHER, WE'RE, AS DEAN MENTIONED, JUST A LITTLE OVER A WEEK OUT FROM IOWA'S CAUCUSES. GIVE US YOUR HANDICAP. WE KNOW YOU'RE NEUTRAL IN THE RACE. WE KNOW THE PARTY IS NEUTRAL IN THE RACE. GIVE US YOUR HANDICAP OF THE FIELD RIGHT NOW. WHO IS DOING THINGS RIGHT AND WHO IS DOING THINGS WRONG?

Fischer: WELL, IN TERMS OF THE HANDICAPPING OF THE FIELD, IT IS VERY DIFFICULT FOR ME TO REALLY SAY BECAUSE I THINK THERE ARE A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF UNDECIDED CAUCUS GOERS. I KNOW POLLS PUT IT MAYBE AT 20 PERCENT. I THINK IT'S QUITE A BIT HIGHER, MAYBE 30 PERCENT. AND I THINK THE CANDIDATE WHO IS GOING TO WIN, WHO IS GOING TO DO WELL ON CAUCUS NIGHT IS THE PERSON WHO IS GOING TO BE ABLE TO GET THOSE UNDECIDED VOTERS, REACH THOSE UNDECIDED VOTERS, AND GET THEM TO CAUCUS FOR HIM OR HER.

Glover: WHY IS THAT UNDECIDED NUMBER SO HIGH? THERE ARE CYNICS WHO SUGGEST THAT UNDECIDED NUMBER IS HIGH SIMPLY BECAUSE THIS FIELD SIMPLY HASN'T CAUGHT FIRE YET. IS IT THAT OR IS IT BECAUSE THERE'S NOT A LOT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEM? WHY THE HIGH LEVEL?

Fischer: I THINK IT'S QUITE THE OPPOSITE? I THINK PEOPLE ARE LOOKING AT A STRONG FIELD AND HAVING TROUBLE PICKING AMONG SEVERAL STRONG CANDIDATES. THAT'S WHAT I'VE HEARD AS I GO AROUND THE STATE. AND I THINK THAT MOST PEOPLE REALLY WANT TO BEAT GEORGE BUSH. MOST IOWA DEMOCRATS HAVE ELECTABILITY IN THEIR MIND AS THE FIRST AND FOREMOST AND PRIMARY CONCERN. AND, YOU KNOW, ELECTABILITY CAN BE KIND OF AN INTERESTING THING TO FIGURE OUT. IT CAN BE KIND OF MERCURIAL I THINK THAT IOWA DEMOCRATS ARE REALLY LOOKING AT SOMEBODY THAT CAN STAND UP TO GEORGE BUSH AND BEAT GEORGE BUSH IN NOVEMBER.

Yepsen: OVER THE WEEKEND -- LATE LAST WEEK NBC NEWS AIRED A STORY WHERE THEY WENT BACK THROUGH SOME TAPES OF HOWARD DEAN APPEARANCES ON A CANADIAN PUBLIC TELEVISION PROGRAM. HE WAS REALLY BADMOUTHING THE CAUCUS PROCESS, SAYING IT WAS DOMINATED BY SPECIAL INTERESTS. HE USED THE WORD "EXTREME." WHAT DO YOU THINK OF THAT?

Fischer: WELL, FIRST IT MADE ME AWARE THAT EVERY TIME I DO "IOWA PRESS," I NEED TO BE VERY, VERY CAREFUL OF WHAT I SAY BECAUSE IN SEVERAL YEARS SOMEBODY IS GOING TO UNEARTH IT. BUT IN ALL SERIOUSNESS, I DIDN'T REALLY THINK TOO MUCH ABOUT IT ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. I THINK MOST IOWA DEMOCRATS WON'T THINK TOO MUCH ABOUT IT. WE'VE HAD OTHER PROMINENT DEMOCRATS SORT OF TRASH IOWA AND THEN COME INTO IOWA AND REALIZE, AFTER SPENDING TIME CAMPAIGNING HERE, THAT THE IOWA CAUCUSES ARE NOT DOMINATED BY SPECIAL INTERESTS. IN FACT, THEY'RE DOMINATED BY ORDINARY WORKING FOLKS WITH VERY MUCH BREAD-AND-BUTTER CONCERNS LIKE JOBS AND HEALTH CARE AND SCHOOLS. AND I THINK GOVERNOR DEAN PROBABLY REALIZES THAT TOO AFTER HAVING CAMPAIGNED HERE QUITE A LOT THESE LAST TWO YEARS.

Yepsen: IS IT POSSIBLE THAT HOWARD DEAN LOVES US NOW BECAUSE HE WANTS SOMETHING FROM US?

Fischer: YES, THAT IS POSSIBLE. I THINK THAT DOES HAPPEN IN POLITICS. BUT I THINK IN ALL SERIOUSNESS, AND I'VE SEEN IT HAPPEN WITH THE NATIONAL MEDIA TOO, THERE CAN BE SOME WARINESS ABOUT THE IOWA CAUCUSES, YOU KNOW, SOME FEELING OF WHY IOWA SHOULD BE FIRST. AND THEN SPENDING TIME HERE, PEOPLE REALIZE THAT IT REALLY IS A VERY NEAT, PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM.

Yepsen: DOES HOWARD DEAN WITH THAT HURT THE CAUCUS PROCESS BY ONCE AGAIN BRINGING UP THIS WHOLE DEBATE OVER -- OVER THESE ISSUES? I MEAN THERE ARE GOING TO BE SOME PEOPLE WHO SAY, YEAH, "HE'S RIGHT, THEY ARE SPECIAL INTERESTS. IT'S LABOR GROUPS AND INTEREST GROUPS THAT DOMINATE IT." DOES IT MAKE YOUR JOB MORE DIFFICULT IN DEFENDING THE CAUCUSES TO HAVE THE FRONT-RUNNER IN THE RACE NOW ON TAPE BEING PLAYED REPEATEDLY BADMOUTHING THE IOWA CAUCUSES AND SAYING HE DOESN'T WANT TO STAND THERE FOR EIGHT HOURS AND LISTEN TO PEOPLE SOLVE THE PROBLEMS OF THE WORLD?

Fischer: WELL, I ASSUME THAT GOVERNOR DEAN FEELS DIFFERENTLY TODAY, HAVING SPENT THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS HERE. BUT OVERALL, I DON'T THINK IT'S GOING TO MAKE MY JOB ANY TOUGHER AT ALL. LET'S FACE IT, THOSE CRITICS ARE OUT THERE AND THEY COME AFTER IOWA EVERY QUARTER.

Glover: LET'S GO BACK TO WHAT MAY BE THE MOST PROMINENT ASPECT OF YOUR JOB IS, THE LEADER OF EITHER POLITICAL PARTY IN IOWA HAS IS, PROBABLY THE MOST IMPORTANT PART OF THEIR JOB, KEEPING IOWA'S CAUCUSES FIRST IN THE NATION. WHAT ARE YOU DOING TO SEE THAT HAPPENS?

Fischer: WELL, FIRST OF ALL, THE MOST IMPORTANT THING WE HAVE TO DO IS HAVE A SMOOTH-RUNNING CAUCUS NIGHT, AND WE HAVE DONE EVERYTHING IN OUR POWER TO DO THAT. WE HAVE DONE 30 TRAININGS -- MORE THAN 30 TRAININGS AROUND THE STATE ALREADY AT THIS TIME, ABOUT THREE TIMES MORE THAN WHAT WE'VE DONE IN THE PAST, WITH MORE COMING UP. WE HAVE REALLY BEEN AGGRESSIVE IN MAKING SURE THAT FOLKS HAVE INFORMATION ABOUT THE CAUCUSES. WE SET UP A SEPARATE WEBSITE, CAUCUS2004.ORG, WITH A WEALTH OF VALUABLE INFORMATION ABOUT THE CAUCUSES. WE REALLY HAVE WORKED HARD TO MAKE SURE THAT THE CAUCUSES WILL BE THE BEST AND THE MOST ATTENDED EVER.

Glover: RULE ONE IS, RIGHT, YOU HAVE TO RUN A PRETTY GOOD CAUCUS THIS YEAR. BUT BEGINNING THIS SUMMER, THE NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY IS GOING TO BE DEALING WITH THE CALENDAR FOR 2008. WHAT ARE YOU DOING IN THAT REGARD?

Fischer: WELL, LUCKILY FOR ME, I HAPPEN TO HAVE WON A SEAT ON THE RULES AND BYLAWS COMMITTEE OF THE DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE. AND ALSO, LUCKILY FOR IOWA, THE NEW HAMPSHIRE PARTY CHAIR, KATHY SULLIVAN, IS ALSO ON THAT COMMITTEE. AND YOU CAN REST ASSURED THAT WE'VE BEEN VERY FAITHFUL AT ATTENDING ALL THOSE COMMITTEE MEETINGS AND IN TALKING TO THE MEMBERS ON THAT COMMITTEE, WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY MAKE THE CHOICE ABOUT IOWA BEING FIRST OR NOT, ABOUT THE VALUE OF HAVING IOWA FIRST.

Yepsen: MR. FISCHER, I WANT TO GO BACK TO THIS NBC TAPE STORY, JUST ONE QUICK FOLLOW-UP WITH YOU. YOU KNOW, HIS POLL NUMBERS HAVE BEEN FLAT FOR ABOUT A MONTH NOW. IS THIS EPISODE OF BADMOUTHING IOWA THE KIND OF THING THAT WOULD PREVENT SOME UNDECIDEDS FROM COMING OVER TO HIS SIDE? YOU AND MIKE WERE JUST TALKING ABOUT HOW THE UNDECIDED VOTERS BREAK LATE. IS THIS THE SORT OF DEAN GAFFE, DUMB THING THAT HE SAYS THAT MIGHT SCARE OFF SOME OF THESE UNDECIDED VOTERS FROM JOINING UP WITH HIM?

Fischer: WELL, I THINK DEAN HAS SPENT THE LAST TWO YEARS, TO COIN A PHRASE, "GOODMOUTHING" IOWA, TRAVELING IOWA AND TALKING TO ORDINARY IOWANS. YOU KNOW, I THINK ULTIMATELY UNDECIDED VOTERS ARE GOING TO HAVE TO TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AND MAKE THEIR OWN DECISION.

Glover: BUT AT THE END OF THE DAY, MR. FISCHER, AND TO COME BACK AT DAVE'S QUESTION IN A DIFFERENT WAY, FOR THE LAST TWO YEARS YOU HAVEN'T HAD A MEDIA GLARE LOOKING AT YOU. RIGHT NOW YOU DO. IF YOU MAKE THIS GAFFE A YEAR AGO, NOBODY IS GOING TO CARE MUCH ABOUT IT BECAUSE NOBODY IS PAYING ATTENTION EXCEPT MAYBE ME AND DAVE. RIGHT NOW THE WHOLE WORLD IS PAYING ATTENTION. DOESN'T THAT AMPLIFY IT?

Fischer: WELL, YOU KNOW, HE ACTUALLY MADE THE GAFFE MORE THAN A YEAR AGO, RIGHT? IT WAS ON --

Yepsen: 2000.

Fischer: IT WAS IN 2000. IT WAS FOUR YEARS AGO, TO THE EXTENT THAT IT'S A GAFFE AT ALL. MY PERSONAL OPINION IS THAT FOLKS ARE GOING TO HAVE TO TAKE THIS INTO ACCOUNT BUT THAT I THINK THAT GOVERNOR DEAN SUPPORTS THE IOWA CAUCUSES. HE'S SHOWN HIS SUPPORT BY CAMPAIGNING HERE OVER THE LAST TWO YEARS, AND I THINK ALL THE CANDIDATES ARE TRANSFORMED, TO SOME DEGREE, BY THE AMOUNT OF TIME THEY SPEND IN IOWA WITH ORDINARY FOLKS.

Borg: AND ONE WAY THAT THE NATION JUDGES THE CREDIBILITY OF THE IOWA CAUCUSES IS BY TURNOUT. YOU SAID A MOMENT AGO THAT YOUR JOB IS TO ENSURE THE TURNOUT IS THE LARGEST EVER. DO YOU HAVE A WAY OF PREDICTING THAT, AND MIGHT THIS COMPONENT OF UNDECIDED PEOPLE INDICATE A LACK OF FERVENCY AND AFFECT TURNOUT?

Fischer: I DON'T THINK IT REALLY HAS ANYTHING TO DO WITH FERVENCY. AGAIN, I THINK PEOPLE ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING UP THEIR MIND AMONG SEVERAL STRONG CANDIDATES AND THEY'RE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME FIGURING OUT WHO IS THE MOST ELECTABLE, WHO IS THE MOST LIKELY TO TAKE ON GEORGE W. BUSH AND SUCCEED IN NOVEMBER. IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL TURNOUT, MY ONE PREDICTION IS THAT IT'S GOING TO BE 70 AND SUNNY ON JANUARY 19 WITH A SLIGHT BREEZE. SO I'M REALLY HOPEFUL THAT THE WEATHER WILL HOLD OUT.

Glover: CAN YOU PUT A NUMBER ON TURNOUT? HOW MANY DO YOU THINK THEY'LL GET?

Fischer: I'M HOPEFUL THAT WE TOUCH 100,000, MAYBE A LITTLE MORE. I HOPE THE WEATHER COOPERATES BUT I THINK THAT WE'LL HAVE A LOT OF INTEREST. I THINK THERE IS A LOT OF INTEREST IN THIS PRESIDENTIAL RACE. I'VE BEEN TO ABOUT 40 COUNTY EVENTS DURING MY YEAR AS CHAIR, AND THEY'RE GETTING TWICE TO THREE TIMES THE NORMAL CROWDS THEY USUALLY GET. AS MR. YEPSEN HAS NOTED IN HIS COLUMN, ALL THE CANDIDATES ARE GETTING GOOD TO GREAT CROWDS. SO I THINK THERE'S A LOT OF INTEREST IN THIS RACE.

Yepsen: AREN'T YOU LOWBALLING THAT TURNOUT FIGURE OF 100,000? MOST CAMPAIGNS ARE USING A TURNOUT MODEL OF 130,000 OR BETTER. I'VE HAD OTHER PARTY LEADERS SAY 150 BECAUSE OF THOSE CROWD SIZES.

Fischer: THAT WOULD BE TERRIFIC. I HAVE NOT HEARD THAT FROM THOSE CAMPAIGNS, BUT THAT WOULD BE TERRIFIC. IF WE HAD THAT MANY, THAT WOULD JUST BE AWESOME.

Glover: DOES THAT BENEFIT ANYBODY IN PARTICULAR? AS TURNOUT GROWS, DOES THAT HELP SOMEBODY?

Fischer: I'M NOT SURE. I MEAN OBVIOUSLY GOVERNOR DEAN HAS TALKED A LOT ABOUT BRINGING NEW VOTERS INTO PROCESS. BUT I THINK THE OTHER CAMPAIGNS MAYBE HAVEN'T BEEN AS VOCAL ABOUT IT, BUT ARE ALSO TALKING ABOUT BRINGING NEW CAUCUS GOERS INTO THE PROCESS. SO IT REALLY DEPENDS ON WHO THESE EXTRA FOLKS ARE.

Yepsen: MR. FISCHER, I'VE COVERED EVERY CAUCUS CAMPAIGN SINCE 1976, AND THE DAY AFTER THE CAUCUSES I AM INVARIABLY TALKING TO SOME STATE PARTY CHAIRMAN ABOUT WHY THE REPORTING SYSTEM DIDN'T WORK, THAT SOMETHING WAS MESSED UP, SOME COMPUTER FAILURE, THERE WAS SOME GLITCH. WHAT GUARANTY ARE YOU PREPARED TO PROVIDE THAT THE REPORTING SYSTEM THAT YOUR PARTY IS GOING TO USE FOR COLLECTING THE RESULTS IS GOING TO WORK?

Fischer: THE IOWA CAUCUS REPORTING RESULTS WILL RUN CLEANER THAN A HOUND'S TOOTH. I AM ABSOLUTELY CONVINCED THAT IT'S GOING TO GO VERY, VERY WELL. IN FACT, I'M SO CONVINCED THAT I SET UP AN EDITORIAL BOARD MEETING WITH "THE DES MOINES REGISTER" FOR JANUARY 20. THAT'S HOW CONVINCED I AM.

Yepsen: SO I WON'T HAVE TO MAKE A PHONE CALL.

Fischer: NO, YOU CAN BEAT UP ON ME IN PERSON.

Yepsen: WE'LL SAVE THIS TAPE. [ LAUGHTER ]

Borg: BUT WHAT ARE YOU DOING TO ENSURE THAT?

Fischer: WE HAVE KIND OF A STATE-OF-THE-ART, CUTTING-EDGE TECHNOLOGY REPORTING SYSTEM. WE'RE GOING TO TOUCH-TONE TELEPHONES. FOLKS, OF COURSE, ARE VERY FAMILIAR WITH CHECKING, SAY, THEIR BANK ACCOUNT OR THEIR CREDIT CARD ACCOUNT, AND WE'RE GOING TO ALLOW THEM TO PUNCH IN -- ALL THE PRECINCT CAPTAINS WILL GET A PHONE NUMBER AND A PIN CODE, AND THEY WILL PUNCH IN THE RESULTS OF THEIR PARTICULAR CAUCUS INTO A PHONE. AND THEY -- THAT DATA WILL BE AUTOMATICALLY TRANSFERRED INTO ELECTRONIC DATA, WHICH WILL GO UP ON A WEB SITE. SO IT WILL BE ABSOLUTELY TRANSPARENT. WE'LL SEE THE RETURNS COMING IN ON A WEB SITE IN REAL TIME.

Borg: NO HUMAN HANDS INVOLVED, THEN, ONCE THAT PRECINCT CAPTAIN TAPS IT INTO THE PHONE?

Fischer: EXACTLY. NOW, AS A BACKUP TO THAT, IF THERE IS A PROBLEM -- AND WE'VE TESTED THIS AND TESTED THIS AND TESTED THIS, AND WE'LL CONTINUE TO TEST IT -- BUT IF THERE IS A PROBLEM, WHICH I DO NOT ANTICIPATE AT ALL, BUT IF THERE IS A PROBLEM, WE HAVE A PLAN "B," WHICH IS TO DO IT HOW WE'VE ALWAYS DONE IT. WE'VE HAD THE PRECINCT CAPTAINS CALL INTO THE COUNTY CHAIRS; THE COUNTY CHAIRS CALL INTO US. THAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN NO MATTER WHAT, AND THAT'S ALWAYS WORKED OKAY IN THE PAST.

Glover: SOUNDS LIKE BONNIE CAMPBELL'S TURNOUT OPERATION, AND THAT DIDN'T WORK SO WELL EITHER. YOU'RE NOT GOING TO HAVE THE ONLY SET OF NUMBERS OUT THERE ON CAUCUS NIGHT. NEWS ORGANIZATIONS HAVE FORMED A CONSORTIUM TO DO SOME ENTRANCE POLLING. THOSE NUMBERS WILL BE FLOATING AROUND ON CAUCUS NIGHT. TELL ME ABOUT THAT. HOW'S THAT --

Fischer: SURE. LET ME FIRST SAY JUST A WORD IN DEFENSE OF BONNIE CAMPBELL. IF SHE WOULDN'T HAVE RUN IN 1994, I THINK SHE WOULD WITH BEEN ELECTED GOVERNOR. THAT WAS A TOUGH, TOUGH REPUBLICAN YEAR. BUT HAVING SAID THAT, IN TERMS OF ENTRANCE POLLING, YOU KNOW, FRANKLY, I'M NOT CRAZY ABOUT IT. ON THE OTHER HAND, WE'RE NOT GOING TO INTERFERE. WE REALIZE THAT THE PRESS HAS A JOB TO DO, THAT THERE IS FREEDOM OF PRESS, FREEDOM OF ASSEMBLY, THAT THE CAUCUSES ARE A FAIR, OPEN PROCESS.

Yepsen: DOESN'T -- DON'T THE ENTRANCE POLLS PROVIDE SOME INDEPENDENT AUDIT OR GUARANTY THAT YOUR NUMBERS ARE ACCURATE? I MEAN IF YOU'RE SAYING CANDIDATE "A," "B," AND "C" WON AND THE ENTRANCE POLLS ARE SAYING CANDIDATE "A," "B," AND "C" WON IN THAT ORDER, THEN CAN'T THE WORLD BE FAIRLY ASSURED THAT INDEED CANDIDATE "A," "B," AND "C" WON?

Fischer: YEAH, I THINK THAT'S TRUE. BUT HERE'S MY CONCERN. IF THEY'RE DOING ENTRANCE POLLING, YOU KNOW BETTER THAN ANYONE ELSE IN THE WORLD THAT THE NATURE OF A CAUCUS IS THAT THERE ARE PEOPLE SWITCHING, FRIENDS AND NEIGHBORS ARE CONVINCING YOU TO COME OVER TO YOUR GROUP RATHER THAN YOUR INITIAL CHOICE. THERE'S THE VIABILITY QUESTION. YOUR PARTICULAR CANDIDATE MAY NOT BE VIABLE, AND SO YOU'RE FORCED TO GO WITH ANOTHER CANDIDATE OR TO GO UNDECIDED. ALL THAT CAN HAPPEN IN A CAUCUS.

Yepsen: IF YOU GET IT RIGHT THIS TIME, FOR THE FIRST TIME IN IOWA POLITICAL HISTORY, THEN DO YOU SUPPOSE THE NETWORKS WOULD QUIT DOING ENTRANCE POLLING?

Fischer: YES. AND WE WILL GET IT RIGHT THIS TIME. YOU'RE GOING TO BE EXTREMELY PLEASED. I THINK IOWA WILL BE EXTREMELY PLEASED.

Glover: IS THIS WHOLE THING AGGRAVATED BECAUSE THIS LOOKS, TO ALL ACCOUNTS, TO BE A FAIRLY COMPETITIVE, TIGHT ELECTION?

Fischer: OH, YEAH, IT WILL BE. THERE'S NO QUESTION ABOUT IT. ALL THE CAMPAIGNS ARE TALKING ABOUT HOW COMPETITIVE, HOW TIGHT IT IS. AND THAT'S WHY YOU SEE THIS INTENSE CAMPAIGNING THAT DEAN TALKED ABOUT AT THE TOP OF THE SHOW. THE CAMPAIGN -- THE CANDIDATES AND CAMPAIGNS ARE PULLING OUT ALL THE STOPS.

Glover: LET'S GO THROUGH SOME OF THOSE CAMPAIGNS. FOR A LONG TIME HOWARD DEAN HAS BEEN CONSIDERED THE FRONT-RUNNER FOR THE NOMINATION AND IN SOME CASES CONSIDER THE FRONT-RUNNER IN IOWA. WHAT HAS HOWARD DEAN DONE RIGHT AND WHAT HAS HOWARD DEAN DONE WRONG IN HIS CAMPAIGN FOR IOWA'S CAUCUSES?

Fischer: WELL, HOWARD DEAN HAS REALLY RUN A REVOLUTIONARY CAMPAIGN. MOST CAMPAIGNS ARE EVOLUTIONARY BUT THIS REALLY IS REVOLUTIONARY. HIS USE OF THE INTERNET OBVIOUSLY, WHICH HAS BEEN TALKED ABOUT BY LOTS OF PEOPLE A LOT SMARTER THAN I AM, HAS CHANGED AMERICAN POLITICS I BELIEVE PROBABLY FOREVER. I THINK, YOU KNOW, HIS CAMPAIGN AND HIS USE OF THE INTERNET WILL BE A MODEL FOR CAMPAIGNS TO COME AND PEOPLE WILL BUILD UPON WHAT HE'S DOING.

Glover: AND WHAT'S HE DONE WRONG?

Fischer: IN TERMS OF WHAT HE'S DONE WRONG, OBVIOUSLY IN 2000 HE PROBABLY SHOULDN'T HAVE SAID THE THINGS HE SAID ABOUT IOWA. [ LAUGHTER ]

Yepsen: CONGRESSMAN RICHARD GEPHARDT HAS LONG BEEN THOUGHT OF AS THE FRONT-RUNNER IN IOWA, YET THE LATE POLLS HAVE SHOWN DEAN AHEAD OF HIM BY A FEW POINTS. DEAN VERSUS GEPHARDT, ANY PREDICTIONS?

Fischer: NO. I'M VERY MISTRUSTFUL OF THE POLLS FOR SOME OF THE REASONS I GAVE IN TERMS OF YOUR ANSWER WITH ENTRANCE POLLING. WE HAVE A LOT OF UNDECIDED FOLKS. PEOPLE CAN SWITCH AT THE CAUCUSES. THERE'S THE VIABILITY ISSUE. AND SO I THINK JUST ABOUT ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN. I THINK CONGRESSMAN GEPHARDT'S CAMPAIGN HAS BEEN KIND OF SLOW AND STEADY. THEY'RE REALLY BUILDING UP THEIR HARD COUNT OF SUPPORTERS. THEY'VE REALLY FOCUSED ON THAT. HE HAS A LOT OF FOLKS THAT HAVE SUPPORTED HIM IN THE PAST AND, YOU KNOW, THERE'S NO QUESTION THAT HE'S RIGHT IN THE THICK OF THINGS.

Yepsen: TO THAT POINT ABOUT THE POLLS UNDERSTATING SUPPORT, WHO DO YOU THINK IS GOING TO DO A BETTER JOB: HOWARD DEAN BRINGING OUT PEOPLE -- NEW PEOPLE, YOUNG PEOPLE, WHO ARE MISSED BY THE POLLSTERS; OR DICK GEPHARDT BRINGING OUT UNION GUYS WHO'VE NOT PARTICIPATED BEFORE AND WHO ALSO ARE MISSED BY POLLSTERS. WHO'S GOING TO HAVE THE BETTER TURNOUT OPERATION?

Fischer: MY GUESS IS THEY'RE BOTH GOING TO HAVE VERY GOOD LUCK IN THAT AND THEY'RE BOTH GOING TO BRINGING OUT PEOPLE THAT WE DON'T EXPECT. THAT'S WHY I'M PREDICTING THE HIGH TURNOUT.

Glover: LET'S STEP BACK AND LOOK ABOUT A YEAR AGO WHERE THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM OF THE MEDIA, WHICH AS YOU KNOW IS NEVER WRONG. ABOUT A YEAR AGO THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM WAS THAT JOHN KERRY WAS THE NOMINEE IN WAITING. THAT DIDN'T PAN OUT QUITE THAT WAY, ALTHOUGH HIS CAMPAIGN SEEMS TO HAVE TICKED UP A LITTLE BIT IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. HANDICAP THAT CAMPAIGN. HOW HAS JOHN KERRY DONE?

Fischer: I THINK JOHN KERRY IS DOING A LOT BETTER. TO ME IT SEEMED -- IT SEEMED TO TURN AT OUR JEFFERSON/JACKSON DAY DINNER WHERE HE GAVE A SPEECH -- A NEW SORT OF STUMP SPEECH, WHICH IS THE BEST I'D EVER HEARD HIM. AND I THINK THAT'S THE SPEECH THAT HE'S NOW DISPLAYING FOR ALL IOWANS. ADDITIONALLY, HE HAS MICHAEL HOOLEY -- THIS MAY BE MUCH TOO INSIDE BASEBALL, BUT MIKE HOOLEY FROM BOSTON IS COMING TO IOWA, AND APPARENTLY PEOPLE TALK ABOUT THIS GUY IN KIND OF HUSHED, REVERENT TONES. THIS GUY IS SUPPOSED TO BE ABSOLUTELY BRILLIANT, AND HE'S HERE IN IOWA WORKING ON BEHALF OF KERRY. SO KERRY HAS DEFINITELY EXPERIENCED AN UPTICK, AND I DO NOT COUNT HIM OUT AS A MAJOR, MAJOR PLAYER IN ALL THIS?

Glover: WHAT WAS HE DOING WRONG BEFORE THIS UPTICK.

Fischer: I DON'T KNOW. I THINK HE -- I DON'T KNOW WHAT HE WAS DOING WRONG, BUT I THINK THERE IS A SENSE THAT HE IS A MORE ENERGETIC CANDIDATE, THAT HE'S BEEN HERE MORE, AND THAT HE MAYBE HAS A FINER-HONED MESSAGE NOW. AND OF COURSE NOW IS THE TIME YOU DO WANT TO HAVE YOUR FINE-HONED MESSAGE.

Glover: ORGANIZERS -- ORGANIZING GET HOT AT THE END?

Fischer: DAVE NAGEL SAID IT BEST.

Yepsen: WHAT ABOUT JOHN EDWARDS? EARLY ON HE WAS THE GREAT HOPE OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY, GETTING COVERS ON NATIONAL NEWS MAGAZINES, THE YOUNG FRESH FACE, AND THEN HE SORT OF DROPPED OFF THE CHARTS. GIVE ME YOUR HANDICAP OF HOW EDWARDS IS DOING IN THIS? HE'S RUNNING FOURTH IN EVERYBODY'S POLL. HOW DO YOU THINK HE'S DOING?

Fischer: WELL, IT'S INTERESTING. WE TALKED ABOUT THINGS WE MAY BE MISSING IN THE POLLS. HERE'S WHAT WE MAY BE MISSING WITH JOHN EDWARDS. HE IS RUNNING, I THINK, A UNIQUE CAMPAIGN. HE HAS A DIFFERENT STRATEGY THAN EVERYBODY ELSE. HE'S GOING AFTER RURAL VOTERS. IT'S VERY CLEAR HE'S GOING TO A LOT OF SMALL TOWNS, A LOT OF RURAL COUNTIES, AND HE'S ALSO CAMPAIGNING A LOT AND HAS A LOT OF ORGANIZATION IN OUR FIFTH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT, A LOT OF RURAL MODERATE DEMOCRATS. AND THAT'S HIS, I THINK, STRATEGY. AND I THINK HE FEELS LIKE HE CONNECTS WITH THOSE PEOPLE THE BEST BECAUSE OF HIS BACKGROUND AND THAT THESE ARE FOLKS THAT MAY BE UNTAPPED AND THAT THEY WILL COME OUT ON CAUCUS NIGHT FOR HIM.

Glover: RETIRED GENERAL WESLEY CLARK GOT INTO THE RACE LATE. HE CAME TO IOWA A TIME OR TWO AND THEN DECIDED NOT TO COMPETE IN IOWA. BUT SOME OF THE POLLING NATIONALLY AND IN NEW HAMPSHIRE HAS SHOWN HIM PRETTY COMPETITIVE. IS THAT A THREAT TO IOWA'S CAUCUSES? IF WESLEY CLARK GETS THE NOMINATION AFTER HAVING BYPASSED IOWA, IS THAT IT FOR THE CAUCUSES AS A LEADOFF EVENT?

Fischer: I DON'T THINK SO BUT WE'LL SEE. OBVIOUSLY NO ONE HAS -- OR AT LEAST NO DEMOCRAT HAS WON THE NOMINATION WITHOUT AT LEAST FINISHING THIRD IN THE IOWA CAUCUSES.

Glover: WHAT ABOUT BILL CLINTON?

Yepsen: HE FINISHED THIRD.

Fischer: HE FINISHED THIRD, YEAH. HE DID FINISH THIRD.

Glover: WELL, WE THINK. WE'RE NOT REALLY SURE ABOUT THAT HERE. [ LAUGHTER ]

Fischer: I'M PRETTY CONFIDENT HE FINISHED THIRD.

Glover: BUT IS THAT A THREAT TO THE IOWA CAUCUSES?

Fischer: YOU KNOW, POTENTIALLY IT COULD BE. POTENTIALLY IT WOULD BE. BUT AGAIN, HE WOULD HAVE TO MAKE HISTORY. AND I THINK HE MADE A BIG MISTAKE. HE'S A VERY ATTRACTIVE CANDIDATE, AND IN MANY WAYS I THINK HE MADE A BIG MISTAKE IN SKIPPING IOWA.

Yepsen: DENNIS KUCINICH, HE HAS SPENT AN INCREDIBLE AMOUNT OF TIME HERE, HAS A SHARP LEFT-TO-CENTER MESSAGE. WHY HASN'T HE DONE BETTER?

Fischer: YOU KNOW, I THINK HE'S DOING OKAY. YOU KNOW, HE HAS A GOOD MESSAGE -- A GOOD STRONG MESSAGE. THERE'S NO MISTAKING WHERE DENNIS KUCINICH STANDS. THERE'S NOT MUCH GRAY IN HIS WORLD. IT'S PRETTY BLACK AND WHITE. HE'S RUNNING TV ADS LIKE THE OTHER CANDIDATES. HE'S DOING MAILINGS LIKE THE OTHER CANDIDATES. HE BECAME ELIGIBLE FOR FEDERAL MATCHING FUNDS LIKE SEVERAL OF THE OTHER CANDIDATES. HE HAS AT LEAST A DOZEN OFFICES AROUND IOWA, MAYBE MORE, AND HAS A CAMPAIGN STAFF ON THE GROUND. SO I THINK HE'S DOING FINE.

Yepsen: YEAH, BUT WHY ISN'T HE MOVING ANY NUMBERS? IS THERE SOMETHING ABOUT HIM PERSONALLY THAT'S PROMPTING DEMOCRATS NOT TO SIGN -- NOT TO GO WITH HIM AND, SAY, GO WITH HOWARD DEAN INSTEAD?

Fischer: WELL, I DON'T REALLY TRUST THE POLLS. I MEAN I THINK THERE'S A LOT OF PROBLEMS WITH POLLING IN A CAUCUS DAY. I THINK HE'S DOING OKAY. I MEAN HE'S GOING TO BE A FACTOR IN THIS RACE.

Yepsen: HOW?

Fischer: I THINK HE'S GOT DEFINITE SUPPORT OUT THERE, AND HE'S DEFINITELY IN THIS THING. AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT -- WHO COMES OUT FOR HIM AND, IF THEY'RE NOT VIABLE IN CERTAIN PRECINCTS, WHO THEY'LL GO FOR.

Glover: WELL, LET'S TALK ABOUT THAT. THE VIABILITY RULE, WHICH WE SHOULD EXPLAIN, IS IF YOU DON'T HAVE SUPPORT OF 15 PERCENT OF THE PEOPLE WHO SHOW UP AT A CAUCUS, YOU DON'T GET ANYTHING AND AND YOU HAVE TO DECIDE WHERE ELSE YOU WANT TO AFFILIATE. THE POLLS WOULD SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT KUCINICH IN A LOT OF PLACES IS GOING TO HAVE POCKETS OF SUPPORT BUT NOT REACH THAT VIABILITY LEVEL. WHERE DO THOSE PEOPLE GO?

Fischer: WELL, KUCINICH'S PEOPLE HAVE SAID THAT THEY ARE FOCUSING ON AREAS WHERE HE WILL BE VIABLE, AND THEY THINK THEY CAN MAX OUT ON DELEGATES THAT WAY. FOR EXAMPLE, HAVING STUDENTS, WHICH HE'S GOTTEN A LOT OF STUDENTS, HAVING THEM GO HOME AND CAUCUS TO TRY TO GET UP NUMBERS THAT WAY.

Yepsen: IS THERE ANYBODY WHO IS, IN YOUR MIND, THE SECOND PLACE CHOICE? WE SHOULD TALK ABOUT SECOND PLACE HERE FOR A MOMENT. THE VIABILITY -- THE RULE IN YOUR PARTY IS THAT YOU'VE GOT TO GET 15 PERCENT OR YOU GET NOTHING. IF YOU HAVE 15 PERCENT OF THE WHOLE, THEN YOU START BECOMING ENTITLED TO DELEGATES, WHICH ARE RESULTS THAT WILL BE REPORTED. SO IT BECOMES IMPORTANT IF SOME CANDIDATE DOES NOT HAVE 15 PERCENT, IF HE ONLY HAS 10 PERCENT, THEN HIS PEOPLE HAVE TO MOVE TO SOME OTHER CANDIDATE. WHICH DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE IS NUMBER TWO ON EVERYBODY'S LIST?

Fischer: I DON'T KNOW. JOHN KERRY HAS CERTAINLY SPENT A LOT OF TIME AND HIS CAMPAIGN HAS SPENT A LOT OF TIME SAYING THAT HE IS THE SECOND CHOICE OF A LOT OF FOLKS, AND HE SEEMS TO BE THE ONE THAT'S OUT THERE SELLING THAT STORY MORE THAN THE OTHER CANDIDATES. I DO WANT TO SAY THERE IS SOME COMPLICATING MATH AND SO FORTH IN THE IOWA CAUCUSES. THERE'S VIABILITY. THERE ARE OTHER ISSUES. BUT FOR FOLKS WHO ARE CONSIDERING BEING FIRST-TIME CAUCUS GOERS, FOR YOUNG FOLKS, I DON'T WANT THEM TO BE SCARED AWAY BY ALL THIS TALK OF STRATEGY AND 15 PERCENT. IT'S REALLY NOT THAT COMPLICATED. FOR PEOPLE THAT ARE CONSIDERING TO GO OUT AND CAUCUS, COME ON OUT. YOUR PRECINCT CAPTAIN -- YOUR PRECINCT CHAIR WILL HELP YOU ALONG. YOU DON'T HAVE TO DO THE MATH. SOMEBODY ELSE WILL. IT'S NOT THAT BAD.

Yepsen: BUT THEY ALSO NEED TO UNDERSTAND, DO THEY NOT, THAT THEY MAY BE FOR CANDIDATE, "X" BUT HAVE TO WIND UP GOING WITH CANDIDATE "Y"?

Fischer: YEAH. IT'S VERY TRUE THAT A SECOND CHOICE, WHICH WOULD BE ABSOLUTELY IRRELEVANT IN A NORMAL ELECTION, IS ACTUALLY QUITE RELEVANT IN A CAUCUS. AND PEOPLE NEED TO UNDERSTAND THERE IS THIS VIABILITY THRESHOLD THAT YOUR CANDIDATE NEEDS TO MEET, BUT I ALSO DON'T WANT PEOPLE TO BE SCARED AWAY FROM ATTENDING THE CAUCUS.

Glover: LET'S STEP BACK FOR A SECOND AGAIN. THERE IS A PURPOSE BEHIND THIS WHOLE PROCESS OTHER THAN HAVING AN IOWA CAUCUS. THE PURPOSE BEHIND THIS WHOLE PROCESS IS PICKING A CANDIDATE TO RUN AGAINST A SITTING REPUBLICAN PRESIDENT, GEORGE W. BUSH. THE RACE RIGHT NOW IS PRETTY HOT. THESE PEOPLE ARE SAYING SOME PRETTY NASTY THINGS ABOUT EACH OTHER. I'VE SEEN SOME REPUBLICANS WHO ARE SAYING THAT THEY'RE VERY HAPPY WITH THE WAY THINGS ARE RIGHT NOW. THEY'RE FILMING SOME OF THIS STUFF. LOOK TO SEE IT AGAIN AROUND APRIL OR MAY. ARE DEMOCRATS DAMAGING THEIR CHANCES OF BEATING A SITTING PRESIDENT WITH A FAIRLY HEATED PRIMARY PROCESS?

Fischer: I DON'T THINK SO. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME YOU'RE EVER GOING TO HEAR ME QUOTE ED GILLESPIE, BUT I'LL DO IT JUST THIS ONCE.

Yepsen: HE'S THE REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CHAIRMAN.

Fischer: HE'S THE REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CHAIRMAN. HE HAS SAID THAT HE BELIEVES THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY WILL BE UNIFIED, AND I FEEL THAT GEORGE W. BUSH REALLY IS A UNIFIER. HE IS A UNITER, NOT A DIVIDER, NOT IN THE SENSE THAT HE MEANT BUT IN THE SENSE THAT HE HAS COMPLETELY UNIFIED THE IOWA DEMOCRATIC PARTY AGAINST HIM. AND I'VE HEARD TIME AND TIME AND TIME AGAIN PEOPLE SAY THAT I'M FOR CANDIDATE "X," BUT IF MY CANDIDATE DOESN'T WIN, I'M GOING TO GET IN THERE BECAUSE WE NEED TO REPLACE GEORGE W. BUSH.

Yepsen: DEMOCRATS ALL HATED RONALD REAGAN AND YET HE CLEANED YOUR CLOCK IN 1984. THE LATEST POLL THAT "USA TODAY" DID SHOWS GEORGE BUSH LEADING HOWARD DEAN BY A WIDER MARGIN THAN REAGAN BEAT MONDALE BY. I MEAN ISN'T THIS A TOUGH THING TO DO?

Fischer: ABSOLUTELY. IT'S ALWAYS TOUGH TO KNOCK OFF AN INCUMBENT PRESIDENT. BUT, FRANKLY, THE ANTIPATHY THAT I AND OTHER IOWA DEMOCRATS, MANY, MANY IOWA DEMOCRATS FEEL TOWARD GEORGE W. BUSH, I DON'T THINK HAS A PRECEDENT.

Yepsen: I WANT TO ASK BEFORE YOU -- IN THE LAST MINUTE, WHY HASN'T THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY COME UP WITH A CANDIDATE FOR THE UNITED STATES SENATE?

Fischer: WE WILL. I THINK AFTER CAUCUSES, WE WILL COME ON "IOWA PRESS," IF YOU'LL HAVE ME, AND WE'LL MAKE AN ANNOUNCEMENT OF A MAJOR CONTENDER?

Yepsen: ARE YOU RUNNING?

Fischer: ABSOLUTELY NOT.

Yepsen: HAVEN'T YOU LOST AN OPPORTUNITY HERE BY NOT HAVING A CANDIDATE DURING THIS CAUCUS PROCESS?

Fischer: NO, NOT AT ALL. NOT AT ALL.

Yepsen: WILL YOU RAISE MONEY?

Fischer: I THINK THERE'S PLENTY OF TIME FOR THAT. I THINK PEOPLE RIGHT NOW ARE FOCUSED SO MUCH ON THIS PRESIDENTIAL RACE THAT IT'S CROWDED ALL THE OTHER POLITICS OUT.

Glover: BUT AREN'T YOU WAITING -- IT'S AWFULLY LATE. I MEAN GRASSLEY HAS BEEN UP AND RUNNING FOR A LONG TIME. HE'S GOT A BOAT LOAD OF MONEY IN THE BANK. ISN'T IT TOO LATE?

Fischer: WELL, THERE'S NO QUESTION THAT CHUCK GRASSLEY, FRANKLY, THANKS TO A LOT OF SPECIAL INTERESTS LIKE, YOU KNOW, PRESCRIPTION DRUG COMPANIES AND OIL COMPANIES, IS GOING TO HAVE A BOAT LOAD OF MONEY.

Borg: WE'RE TALKING ABOUT LATE AND WE ARE LATE. WE'RE OUT OF TIME. THANK YOU, GORDON FISCHER, FOR YOUR INSIGHTS TODAY. AND WE CLOSE WITH SEVERAL PROGRAM REMINDERS. COMING UP ON SUNDAY FROM THE POLK COUNTY CONVENTION CENTER IS THE BROWN-BLACK COALITION PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES DEBATE SPONSORED BY MSNBC, AND IOWA PUBLIC TELEVISION WILL AIR THAT FORUM. IT WILL BE AT 9:00 SUNDAY NIGHT, THE FINAL IOWA-BASED DEBATE FOR THE DEMOCRATIC CONTENDERS. AND THEN ON TUESDAY OF THIS COMING WEEK, GOVERNOR TOM VILSACK DELIVERS HIS "CONDITION OF THE STATE" ADDRESS -- 2004 "CONDITION OF THE STATE" ADDRESS. AND PUBLIC TELEVISION WILL BE THERE TOO, LIVE FROM THE STATEHOUSE TUESDAY MORNING AT 10:00, REBROADCAST THAT EVENING AT 7:00. AND OUR SERIES "THE CANDIDATES WITH DAVID YEPSEN" CONTINUES ON MONDAY, AND YOU'LL SEE IT MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 6:30. THAT'S ON STATEWIDE IOWA PUBLIC TELEVISION EACH EVENING THIS COMING WEEK AT 6:30. AND FINALLY, A PREVIEW OF "IOWA PRESS" FOR THE UPCOMING CAUCUS WEEKEND. WE'LL CONVENE REPORTERS HERE NEXT WEEK, WHO HAVE BEEN COVERING THE CAMPAIGNS, TO PREVIEW THE 2004 IOWA CAUCUSES AND WHAT COMES NEXT. "IOWA PRESS" AT OUR REGULAR TIMES NEXT WEEKEND: 7:30 FRIDAY AND SUNDAY AT NOON. AND THAT'S IT FOR THIS WEEKEND'S EDITION OF "IOWA PRESS." I'M DEAN BORG. THANKS FOR JOINING US TODAY. CAPTIONS BY: MIDWEST CAPTIONING DES MOINES, IOWA FUNDING FOR THIS PROGRAM WAS PROVIDED BY "FRIENDS," THE IOWA PUBLIC TELEVISION FOUNDATION... GENERATIONS OF FAMILIES AND FRIENDS WHO FEEL PASSIONATE ABOUT THE PROGRAMS THEY WATCH ON IOWA PUBLIC TELEVISION; AND BY THE IOWA BANKERS ASSOCIATION... FOR PERSONAL, BUSINESS, AND COMMERCIAL NEEDS, IOWA BANKS HELP IOWANS REACH THEIR FINANCIAL GOALS.