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IOW PRESS #3149>> Borg: DEMOCRATS HEAD HOME TO ELECT THEIR NOMINEES. REPUBLICANS FIRE UP FOR THEIR CONVENTION. CAMPAIGN INSIGHT FROM IOWA POLITICAL REPORTERS ON THIS EDITION OF "IOWA PRESS."
FUNDING FOR THIS PROGRAM WAS PROVIDED BY "FRIENDS," THE IOWA PUBLIC TELEVISION FOUNDATION... GENERATIONS OF FAMILIES AND FRIENDS WHO FEEL PASSIONATE ABOUT THE PROGRAMS THEY WATCH ON IOWA PUBLIC TELEVISION. AND BY THE IOWA BANKERS ASSOCIATION... FOR PERSONAL, BUSINESS, AND COMMERCIAL NEEDS, IOWA BANKS HELP IOWANS REACH THEIR FINANCIAL GOALS ON STATEWIDE IOWA PUBLIC TELEVISION, THIS IS THE FRIDAY, JULY 30 EDITION OF "IOWA PRESS." HERE IS DEAN BORG. Borg: DEMOCRATS THIS WEEK POSITIONED SENATORS JOHN KERRY AND JOHN EDWARDS IN THE MINDS OF THE NATION'S VOTERS AS LEADERS DESTINED FOR THE WHITE HOUSE. PROFESSING UNITY IN DEFEATING PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH, DEMOCRATS RAN A TIGHTLY CHOREOGRAPHED CONVENTION, KEEPING TRADITIONAL PARTY RANCOR OFF STAGE. IT'S A SURE BET REPUBLICANS WILL SHOW SIMILAR RESOLVE WHEN THEY CONVENE IN NEW YORK CITY IN LATE AUGUST. AND A WORD ABOUT THAT NOW. AS WITH THE DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION THIS PAST WEEK, PBS AND IOWA PUBLIC TELEVISION WILL COVER FOUR NIGHTS OF THE REPUBLICAN CONVENTION BEGINNING MONDAY, AUGUST 30, AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 2. THIS WEEK, THOUGH, BELONGED TO THE WANT-TO-BES. AND IOWA POLITICAL REPORTERS WERE WATCHING IT ALL, KNOWING THAT IOWA CONTINUES TO BE A MAJOR BATTLEGROUND IN THIS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. FOR SOME INSIGHT, WE'VE INVITED: "DES MOINES REGISTER" POLITICAL EDITOR KATHIE OBRADOVICH; "ASSOCIATED PRESS" SENIOR POLITICAL WRITER MIKE GLOVER; "KUNI" STATEHOUSE REPORTER JENEANE BECK; AND "LEE NEWSPAPERS" CAPITAL BUREAU CHIEF TODD DORMAN. WELL, MIKE, DEMOCRATS CONVENED THE CONVENTION. THEY ADJOURNED ON THURSDAY, HEADED HOME NOW, AS I SAID, TO ELECT THOSE NOMINEES. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR IOWA? Glover: IT MEANS THAT IOWA, AS YOU MENTIONED IN YOUR INTRODUCTION, IS A BATTLEGROUND STATE. WE'RE GOING TO HAVE BOTH NOMINEES, THE REPUBLICAN AND DEMOCRATIC NOMINEES, IN THE STATE IN COMING DAYS, AND THEY'RE GOING TO BE BACK QUITE OFTEN BECAUSE THIS STATE IS IN PLAY. IT WENT TO THE DEMOCRATS BY 4,000 VOTES LAST TIME, AND I THINK IT'S A DEAD HEAT, A DEAD TIE THIS TIME. HAVING SAID THAT, I THINK THE DEMOCRATS HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF AN ADVANTAGE HERE. AFTER ALL, THEY HAD A YEAR'S RUN UP TO IOWA'S PRECINCT CAUCUSES. SO JOHN KERRY HAS CERTAINLY CAMPAIGNED IN THIS STATE A LOT MORE THAN GEORGE BUSH HAS. HE'S PROBABLY BETTER KNOWN HERE THAN ANYWHERE IN MASSACHUSETTS. BUT EVERY POLL I'VE SEEN SHOWS THIS THING A DEAD HEAT IN IOWA. Borg: ARE YOU SEEING, ANY OF YOU, ANY REGIONAL STRENGTHS; THAT IS, WESTERN IOWA FOR THE BUSH -- STRONG FOR THE BUSH CAMPAIGN, MAYBE THE URBAN AREAS FOR KERRY? DO YOU SEE ANY OF THOSE? AND ARE THE CANDIDATES, WHEN THEY TIME THEIR VISITS, PLAYING TO THEIR STRENGTHS OR ARE THEY VISITING AREAS WHERE THEY MAY NOT BE SO POPULAR? Obradovich: YEAH, THE CANDIDATES HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE STATE, DEAN. WE'VE SEEN JOHN KERRY IN SIOUX CITY IN THE TRADITIONAL REPUBLICAN FIFTH DISTRICT. WE'VE SEEN PRESIDENT BUSH IN EASTERN IOWA, WHICH HAS TYPICALLY BEEN STRONGER FOR THE DEMOCRATS. SO I THINK THAT NOBODY IS TAKING ANY REGION OF THE STATE NECESSARILY FOR GRANTED. BUT ONE POINT I WANTED TO MAKE ABOUT THE VOTERS IN IOWA, YES, THEY ARE TIED UP. AND IF YOU LOOK BELOW THE NUMBERS AT WHY THEY MIGHT BE PICKING THE CANDIDATES THAT THEY ARE -- ONE THING THAT JOHN KERRY BEAT US OVER THE HEAD WITH DURING THE CAMPAIGN WAS THAT HE WAS GOING TO BE A STRONG MILITARY LEADER. VOTERS IN IOWA ARE HESITANT TO GIVE BUSH ANY KIND OF CREDIT FOR HIS HANDLING OF THE WAR ON IRAQ SO FAR, AND YET THEY SAY THAT THEY TRUST HIM MORE TO HANDLE THE WAR IN IRAQ AND TERRORISM THAN THEY DO JOHN KERRY. SO THAT'S ONE IMPORTANT POINT THAT CAME OUT OF THE CONVENTION THAT DIRECTLY ADDRESSES KERRY'S WEAKNESS WITH IOWA VOTERS. Beck: AND IN FACT, AT THE CONVENTION THEY SPENT A LOT OF TIME TALKING ABOUT KERRY'S WAR RECORD, HIS VIETNAM HISTORY, HIS DECISIVENESS IN BATTLE, AND HOW HE WILL BE A DECISIVE LEADER. AND HE TALKED A LOT ABOUT THAT IN HIS SPEECH ABOUT HOW HE WOULD NOT HESITATE TO GO TO WAR IF NECESSARY, IF THERE WAS A THREAT, BUT THAT HE WOULD ONLY GO TO WAR IF THERE WAS A THREAT, NOT BECAUSE HE WANTED TO. BUT THAT'S BEEN AN INTERESTING CONTRAST THAT TYPICALLY VOTERS HAVE SAID THEY WOULD SUPPORT KERRY ON EDUCATION OR HEALTH CARE OR ON ISSUES LIKE THAT. EVEN THE BUDGET NOW, WHICH IS ODD BECAUSE THEY ALWAYS USED TO SAY THAT THAT WAS A REPUBLICAN ISSUE. BUT NOW JOHN KERRY IS TAKING IT TO BUSH ON THE ONE ISSUE WHERE BUSH IS CONSIDERED STRONGER AND APPARENTLY BELIEVES HE HAS TO WIN THAT ISSUE TO WIN THE ELECTION. Glover: I THINK THIS IS SOMETHING -- AND WE CAN'T OVERSTATE THIS. THIS IS A GAMBLE ON KERRY'S PART. THIS WHOLE CONVENTION FOCUS ON HIS MILITARY RECORD, HIS STRENGTH AS A LEADER, HIS ABILITY TO LEAD THE COUNTRY IN THE WAR ON TERROR. AS JENEANE MENTIONED, THOSE ARE ISSUES THAT VOTERS IN EVERY POLL I'VE SEEN FAVOR BUSH. Borg: WHY IS IT A GAMBLE? Glover: IT'S A GAMBLE BECAUSE KERRY, INSTEAD OF TALKING ABOUT ISSUES WHERE POLLS SHOW VOTERS FAVOR HIM, HE'S TAKING BUSH ON IN AN ISSUE WHERE VOTERS SAY THEY FAVOR BUSH. AND HE APPARENTLY HAS COME TO THE CONCLUSION THAT TO WIN THIS ELECTION HE HAS TO WIN THAT ISSUE, SO HE'S TAKING ON A POPULAR WARTIME PRESIDENT ON AN ISSUE WHICH THAT PRESIDENT IS RATED STRONGEST ON. Borg: TODD, DO YOU SEE ANY ISSUES THAT EMERGED OR THEMES THAT EMERGED DURING THE DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION THIS PAST WEEK THAT WILL RESONATE PARTICULARLY WELL WITH IOWA? Dorman: WELL, I THINK THE ECONOMIC MESSAGE IS ALONGSIDE THAT SECURITY MESSAGE BECAUSE IOWANS ARE CLEARLY, LIKE THE REST OF THE COUNTRY, CONCERNED ABOUT HOMELAND SECURITY, CONCERNED ABOUT WHAT'S HAPPENING IN IRAQ. BUT HE ALSO TALKED ABOUT -- AND DEMOCRATS TALKED ABOUT BREAD-AND-BUTTER ISSUES, CREATING JOBS, PUTTING THE ECONOMY ON AN EVEN KEEL. AND I THINK IOWANS AND MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THAT. THEY'RE CONCERNED ABOUT THE FUTURE OF THE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES THAT HAVE BEEN IMPORTANT IN THESE STATES, AND I THINK THEY TOUCHED ON THAT. Beck: IN FACT, DIDN'T AN IOWAN PARTICIPATE IN THE CONVENTION WHO'S HAD HIS JOB OUTSOURCED? HE WAS A PART OF THE CONVENTION SO, YEAH, I DEFINITELY THINK THAT IS AN ISSUE HERE. Borg: PICKING UP ON WHAT MIKE SAID JUST A MOMENT AGO ON KERRY TAKING THE ISSUE THAT BUSH SEEMS TO BE STRONGEST ON, THE FIGHT ON TERRORISM, MILITARYISM, WILL ANY OF THAT RESONATE PARTICULARLY WELL IN IOWA? I'M THINKING OF OUR OLDER POPULATION HERE, THAT IS WORLD WAR II VETERANS WHO ARE STILL LIVING, KOREAN WAR, ON UP THROUGH VIETNAM. IS THAT -- GO AHEAD. Beck: I'M SURE IT DOES BUT THE GROUP I THINK IT MAY ALSO RESONATE WITH IS FAMILIES OF IOWA GUARD MEMBERS BECAUSE IOWA HAS BEEN, THROUGHOUT THIS ENTIRE WAR, IN THE TOP FIVE OR TOP TEN PERCENTAGE OF NATIONAL GUARD POPULATION SERVING OVERSEAS AND CALLED UP. SO IT MAY RESONATE WITH A LARGE SECTION OF PEOPLE WHO HAVE LOVED ONES SERVING CURRENTLY. Glover: I THOUGHT IT WAS FASCINATING ALSO DURING THE CONVENTION, ON THE NIGHT THAT KERRY ACCEPTED THE NOMINATION, BEHIND HIM WERE ALL OF THESE VIETNAM VETERANS THAT HE SERVED WITH. THAT WAS AN APPEAL TO A GENERATION OF VIETNAM VETERANS THAT'S NEVER BEEN APPEALED TO BEFORE. THINK ABOUT THIS: THIS GENERATION CAME HOME FROM A WAR IN VIETNAM, FRACTURED, IGNORED, NEVER VIEWED AS A CONSTITUENCY OR APPEALED TO AS A CONSTITUENCY. KERRY IS MAKING A PITCH TO THAT ENTIRE GENERATION, WHICH INCLUDES NOT ONLY VIETNAM VETERANS, IT INCLUDES PEOPLE WHO PROTESTED THE WAR. IT'S BRINGING THE VIETNAM WAR GENERATION INTO POLITICS IN A DIRECT APPEAL THAT I DON'T THINK HAS EVER BEEN MADE TO THAT GENERATION BEFORE. Dorman: WELL, IT RESONATES WELL NOW BECAUSE YOU'VE GOT SOLDIERS COMING HOME FROM A WAR THAT SOME PEOPLE SAY IS CONTROVERSIAL, SOME PEOPLE SAY IS QUESTIONABLE. SO I THINK EVEN FOR YOUNGER AMERICANS, THE CONNECTION, THEY CAN MAKE IT EASILY AND THEY UNDERSTAND WHAT VIETNAM MEANS MORE NOW MAYBE THAN EVER. Obradovich: PLUS THE TIMING IS RIGHT FOR THIS MESSAGE, IN IOWA IN PARTICULAR. FAR AND AWAY, THE WAR IN IRAQ AND THE FIGHT ON TERRORISM ARE THE NUMBER ONE ISSUE IN THE MIND OF IOWANS. NOW, THAT'S NOT ALWAYS THE CASE. DURING THE FALL CAUCUS CAMPAIGN, IT WAS THE ECONOMY AND JOBS, FAR AND AWAY. SO GOING BACK TO WHAT MIKE SAID ABOUT IT BEING A GAMBLE, YOU KNOW, WHO KNOWS WHAT WILL BE THE NUMBER ONE ISSUE IN VOTERS' MINDS IN NOVEMBER. BUT AT THIS POINT, IT'S THE RIGHT TIME FOR KERRY TO MAKE HIS POINT THAT HE'S GOING TO BE A STRONG MILITARY LEADER. Borg: JENEANE, WHAT, IF YOU CAN IDENTIFY -- YOU'RE IN TOUCH WITH BOTH VOTERS AND YOU'VE SEEN THE CANDIDATES AS THEY COME TO CAMPAIGN. WHAT ISSUE DO YOU THINK WILL BE KEY IN IOWA OR THAT EITHER BUSH OR KERRY HAVE TO BREAK THROUGH ON IN ORDER TO WIN IOWA? Beck: WELL, I THINK THE TWO ISSUES WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT ARE PROBABLY STILL THE BIGGEST KEYS, UNLESS ONE RISES TO THE SURFACE THAT I'M NOT AWARE OF. AND TIED INTO THAT QUESTION OF WAR AND THE ECONOMY IS HEALTH CARE. AND I DO THINK IOWANS ARE FEELING THE PINCH A LITTLE BIT. I KNOW THAT MANY FRIENDS THAT I SPEAK TO OR VOTERS HAVE TALKED ABOUT GETTING RAISES, BUT THE RAISE IS ENTIRELY EATEN UP BY THE COST OF HEALTH CARE. SO MAYBE THAT'S AN ISSUE THAT THEY WILL HAVE TO -- THEY DO TALK ABOUT IT NOW. AND IT TENDS TO BE THAT KERRY COMES OUT STRONGER IN POLLS ON HEALTH CARE, AND MAYBE THAT IS AN ISSUE HE CAN WORK BACK INTO THE FOLD AFTER HE MAKES HIS CASE ON THE WAR AND BRING THAT BACK UP. AND THAT MAY HAVE SOME RESONANCE. Glover: THERE'S ANOTHER DEMOGRAPHIC THING GOING ON HERE THAT I THINK MAY PLAY TO KERRY'S STRENGTH IN IOWA, AND THAT'S HIS SELECTION OF JOHN EDWARDS AS A RUNNING MATE AND THE APPEAL OF THAT TICKET IN RURAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE, IN RURAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. RURAL AREAS TEND TO BE RELIABLY REPUBLICAN. GEORGE BUSH WON THEM BY DOUBLE DIGIT NUMBERS OVER AL GORE IN 2000. POLLS ARE SHOWING THAT EDWARDS HAS SOME APPEAL TO THOSE RURAL FOLKS. HE'S A SMALL-TOWN KID FROM NORTH CAROLINA. HE'S GOT A LITTLE TWANG IN HIS VOICE AND SOME APPEAL IN RURAL SECTIONS. IF THEY CAN CUT INTO THAT REPUBLICAN EDGE IN RURAL AREAS, THAT WILL BE A MAJOR BREAK FOR THE DEMOCRATS, NOT JUST IN IOWA BUT THROUGHOUT THE UPPER MIDWEST. Borg: MIKE, I WANT TO DRAW ON YOUR EXPERIENCE. YOU TRAVELED WITH THE KERRY CAMPAIGN QUITE EXTENSIVELY IN EARLY SPRING AND INTO THE SUMMER. YOU WERE ALSO OVER AT THE BUSH APPEARANCE AT KIRKWOOD COMMUNITY COLLEGE IN CEDAR RAPIDS. AND I CONTRAST -- I'VE COVERED THE KERRY CAMPAIGN TOO AND BUSH IN IOWA APPEARANCES, AND THEY'RE SOMEWHAT BEING MADE OF THE FACT THAT THE KIRKWOOD APPEARANCE AND SOME OF THE OTHER BUSH APPEARANCES WERE INVITATION ONLY. IT GOES BACK TO THE QUESTION THAT I ASKED, IS IT GOOD FOR A CANDIDATE, BUSH, TO COME INTO IOWA AND SURROUND HIMSELF WITH A FRIENDLY CROWD, OR TO HAVE OPEN CROWD, WHOEVER GETS A TICKET GETS TO GET IN? Glover: THERE WAS SOMETHING THAT STRUCK ME ABOUT THE LAST BUSH APPEARANCE AND THE LAST KERRY APPEARANCE. BUSH, AS YOU MENTIONED, KATHIE, IN CEDAR RAPIDS, KERRY IN SIOUX CITY. THERE WERE A LOT OF SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THOSE EVENTS: 2-, 3,000 PEOPLE AT EACH; THEY HAD CANDIDATES DELIVERING IN THE STUMP PRETTY WELL. BUT THERE WERE SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES. ONE, AT THE BUSH APPEARANCE, IT LOOKED TO ME THAT THAT WAS HEAVILY HIS RELIGIOUS CONSERVATIVE BASE, AND THEY WERE FIRED UP WHEN HE GOT DONE WITH THAT SPEECH. THEY WERE READY TO CHARGE OUT OF THAT BUILDING AT KIRKWOOD AND WALK OVER HOT COALS TO ELECT GEORGE BUSH PRESIDENT AGAIN. AT THE SIOUX CITY APPEARANCE, JOHN KERRY WAS AN HOUR LATE, TERESA HEINZ PUT THE CROWD TO SLEEP, AND KERRY NEVER REALLY WOKE THEM UP. THERE WAS MARKEDLY LESS ENERGY IN THAT KERRY CROWD THAN THERE WAS IN THE BUSH CROWD. AND A LOT OF WHAT'S DRIVING KERRY RIGHT NOW -- I DON'T THINK THIS HAS CHANGED -- IS ANTI-BUSH FEELING ON THE PART OF DEMOCRATS. THERE'S LESS AN ENTHUSIASM FOR JOHN KERRY THAN ENTHUSIASM TO BEAT GEORGE BUSH. ONE OF THE CHALLENGES JOHN KERRY IS GOING TO HAVE IN THIS CAMPAIGN IS OVERCOMING THAT ENTHUSIASM GAP, TO GET DEMOCRATIC ACTIVISTS ENTHUSIASTIC NOT JUST TO BEAT GEORGE BUSH BUT TO ELECT HIM. Borg: THAT'S GOING TO BE ONE OF THE KEYS THAT WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH NOW IN THE DAYS FOLLOWING THIS CAMPAIGN, AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THEY'VE DEFINED THEIR CANDIDATE AND WHETHER OR NOT HE'S GENERATED THAT ENTHUSIASM. Glover: EXACTLY. Borg: KATHIE? Obradovich: AND ONE PART ABOUT WHAT YOU TALKED ABOUT, DEAN, TOO IS ONE OF THE HANDICAPS THAT THE SITTING PRESIDENT HAS. THE SITTING PRESIDENT HAS A LOT OF ADVANTAGES, NOT ONLY GETTING A LOT OF NEWS COVERAGE FOR THE THINGS HE DOES AS PRESIDENT, HE'S GOT AIR FORCE ONE, HE CAN DO A LOT OF THINGS. ONE THING HE DOES NOT DO AS WELL AS THE CHALLENGER, THOUGH, IS MINGLE WITH THE CROWD BECAUSE SECURITY IS AN ISSUE. IT'S MORE SO AN ISSUE IN THIS CAMPAIGN THAN IT HAS BEEN FOUR YEARS AGO. AND, YOU KNOW, YOU JUST AREN'T GOING TO SEE THE PRESIDENT WADING INTO A CROWD OF STRANGERS LIKE YOU MIGHT HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST OR LIKE YOU MIGHT SEE JOHN KERRY DO. Borg: RIGHT, IT'S A HANDICAP. TODD, THE VILSACKS HAD QUITE A PROMINENT ROLE IN THE DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION. WHAT DOES THAT PORTEND FOR THE FUTURE? Dorman: WELL, IT PORTENDS THAT TOM VILSACK IS GOING TO BE SOMEONE WHO'S GOING TO GO ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND CAMPAIGN HARD FOR JOHN KERRY. AND IF JOHN KERRY WINS, I THINK WE'LL SEE TOM VILSACK HAVE A SHOT AT SOME SORT OF POST WITHIN HIS ADMINISTRATION WHICH, OF COURSE, SETS UP ALL SORTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT IOWA POLITICS AND WHAT THAT MEANS BACK HERE AT HOME. BUT IT'S CLEAR THAT THE VILSACKS ARE PART OF THE DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL ELITE. Borg: AND YOU MADE IT PLURAL THERE, "VILSACKS," INCLUDING CHRISTIE. YOU'RE SHAKING YOUR HEAD YES, JENEANE. Beck: WELL, EVERYONE KNOWS THAT SHE KIND OF CAME TO HER HIGH PROFILE WITHIN THE KERRY CAMPAIGN BY ENDORSING HIM BEFORE THE CAUCUSES, BECAUSE TOM VILSACK HAD SAID HE WOULD NOT ENDORSE ANYONE BEFORE THE CAUCUSES. AND THAT WAS A PART WHERE KERRY'S CAMPAIGN BEGAN TO SWING TO THE POSITIVE, AND SO SHE'S GIVEN A LOT OF CREDIT FOR THAT AND HAS SINCE THEN HAD A HIGH PROFILE. AND ALSO THE FACT THAT VILSACK WAS A CONTENDER FOR THE VICE-PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION KEPT HER IN THE PROFILE. AND FRANKLY, I'VE HAD PEOPLE SAY, "WHY IS SHE SPEAKING AT THE CONVENTION. YOU KNOW, OUT OF ALL THESE CHOICES OF WOMEN ACROSS THE COUNTRY, SHE'S NOT EVEN IN ELECTIVE OFFICE." AND I SAID, "WELL, THAT MAY HAVE BEEN THE POINT, TO BRING SOME SORT OF --" YOU KNOW, I SAID, "IOWA IS A BATTLEGROUND STATE." YOU NOTICE A LOT OF THE SPEAKERS CAME FROM BATTLEGROUND STATES, AND HERE'S THIS WOMAN THAT CAN TALK ABOUT MIDWESTERN VALUES AND DID. Borg: DID YOU READ ANY SIGNIFICANCE INTO THE FACT THAT WE DIDN'T SEE TOM HARKIN MUCH AT ALL? OR MAYBE I MISSED HIM DURING THE DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION. Glover: NO, HE HAD A VERY, VERY LOW PROFILE AT THE DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION, AND I THINK THAT WAS IN PART BECAUSE THE KERRY CAMPAIGN WAS SEEKING TO FOCUS ON GOVERNORS. WE'VE GOT TWO SENATORS ON THE TICKET. THAT'S A LITTLE BIT UNUSUAL. GOVERNORS ARE A MUCH MORE POPULAR ITEM ON THE TICKET, SO I THINK THEY WANTED TO FOCUS A LITTLE MORE ON STATE-LEVEL OFFICIALS IN THESE VARIOUS BATTLEGROUND STATES RATHER THAN MAKING IT SORT OF AN INSIDE WASHINGTON CLUB TYPE CIRCLE. YEAH, TOM AND CHRISTIE VILSACK WERE BOTH BIG PLAYERS AT THE CONVENTION. SHE WAS AT THE PODIUM DELIVERING A SPEECH ON MIDWESTERN VALUES. HE WAS AT THE PODIUM PRESENTING THE PLATFORM TO DELEGATES. AND TODD IS RIGHT. SHOULD JOHN KERRY PULL THIS THING OFF, I THINK TOM VILSACK WILL NOT FINISH HIS SECOND TERM, WHICH WILL PLAY INTO THE NEXT GOVERNOR'S ELECTION, WHICH IS ALWAYS A TOPIC FOR ANOTHER SHOW. Obradovich: OF COURSE, THERE WAS THE ENDORSEMENT OF HOWARD DEAN BY TOM HARKIN, WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE HAD SOMETHING TO DO WITH HIS LOW PROFILE AT THE CONVENTION. Glover: JOHN KERRY PROBABLY HAS A LONG MEMORY. Borg: KATHIE, WE'RE SEEING INCREASINGLY THE PREPARATION POSSIBLY FOR THE VILSACKS MOVING ON TO ANOTHER POSITION. IN THE PROFILE THAT LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR PEDERSON IS TAKING, I SEE HER AT A LOT MORE EVENTS. HER EVENTS ARE PROMOTED A LOT MORE. Obradovich: SHE'S ALWAYS BEEN ONE TO TRAVEL THE STATE. IT'S NOT NECESSARILY THAT SHE'S GOING MORE PLACES, BUT IT IS BEING PROMOTED A LOT MORE. AND THE TYPES OF THINGS SHE'S DOING HAVE PERHAPS CHANGED A LITTLE BIT. SHE'S WORKING HARD ON PROMOTING THE VALUES FUND. SHE IS GETTING OUT THERE TALKING WITH BUSINESS GROUPS. IT HAS DEFINITELY THE FEEL OF A PRECAMPAIGN TYPE OF TOUR THAT SHE'S DOING. AND YOU KNOW, SHOULD SHE END UP BEING THE GOVERNOR TO FILL OUT GOVERNOR VILSACK'S TERM, OBVIOUSLY THIS TYPE OF ACTIVITY WILL BENEFIT HER. Borg: NOW, TODD, IF SHE WERE -- LET'S JUST LOOK AHEAD AT THE WHAT-IFS. IF SHE WERE TO MOVE UP TO BE THE GOVERNOR, THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY, ISN'T THERE, OVER HOW THE LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR TO ACCOMPANY HER IS CHOSEN? Dorman: WELL, YEAH, I THINK THERE'S UNCERTAINTY OVER WHETHER EXACTLY, IF SALLY PEDERSON MOVES UP, WHETHER SHE CAN PICK HER OWN LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR OR WHAT THE LINE OF SUCCESSION IS. WE KNOW FOR SURE THAT SHE CAN BECOME GOVERNOR BUT, BEYOND THAT, IT'S REALLY CONFUSING. Beck: AND THE ATTORNEY GENERAL'S OFFICE SAYS THEY WON'T BOTHER TO RESEARCH THAT UNTIL THEY GET CONCRETE INFORMATION THAT VILSACK IS MOVING ON. THEY'RE NOT GOING TO BOTHER TO RESEARCH THAT UNTIL THEY HAVE TO. Glover: AND THIS IS ALL RANK SPECULATION, BUT SHOULD TOM VILSACK NOT FINISH OUT HIS SECOND TERM, THAT WILL BE A MAJOR BENEFIT FOR SALLY PEDERSON. SHE WOULD BE RUNNING FOR GOVERNOR AS GOVERNOR. AND I THINK WE'VE HAD ONE OF THOSE POTENTIAL CANDIDATES ON THIS SHOW, MICHAEL BLOUIN, WHO HAS SAID IF THAT'S THE CASE, IT'S LIKELY HE WON'T CHALLENGE HER. SO SHE MAY BE THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE, SHOULD SHE MOVE UP TO GOVERNOR. Borg: AND IS IT LIKELY WE MIGHT SEE -- IF THERE'S UNCERTAINTY ON HOW SHE CAN PICK HER LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR, ARE THE REPUBLICANS WEIGHING IN ON THIS? Glover: NO, THEY'RE NOT SAYING ANYTHING. Beck: YEAH, IT WILL BE A LEGAL ISSUE, I THINK. IT WILL COME DOWN TO -- THEY'LL SEARCH THE CONSTITUTION FOR HINTS OF WHAT TO DO. Borg: SOMEWHERE IN OUR CONVERSATION HERE IN THE LAST FEW MINUTES, SOMEBODY HAS MENTIONED THE INTENSITY AND THE LENGTH OF THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN IN IOWA. WE'VE HAD FOUR YEARS OF IT LEADING UP TO THE CAUCUSES. BUT WHAT WILL BE THE EFFECT OF ALL THAT EXPOSURE AND THE ENERGIZING OF THE DEMOCRATIC BASE? WHAT DO YOU THINK WILL BE THE EFFECT ON THE ELECTION ON NOVEMBER 2? Glover: I THINK IT'S A MAJOR BENEFIT FOR DEMOCRATS. THERE'S BEEN AN ONGOING DEMOCRATIC CAMPAIGN IN THIS STATE FOR A COUPLE OF YEARS NOW. DEMOCRATS -- SOME OF THE MOST ARTICULATE, SKILLED DEMOCRATS IN AMERICA HAVE BEEN SPENDING ALMOST ALL OF THEIR TIME IN IOWA PUTTING TOGETHER CAMPAIGN ORGANIZATIONS, PUTTING TOGETHER CAMPAIGN MESSAGES, TAKING THE CAMPAIGN TO ACTIVISTS IN THE STATE, WHILE REPUBLICANS HAVE BEEN ON THE SIDELINES. THAT'S A MAJOR ORGANIZATIONAL AND MESSAGE ADVANTAGE FOR DEMOCRATS. HISTORY TEACHES US THAT WHEN A REPUBLICAN UNDERGOES THAT TYPE OF SAVAGING FOR A COUPLE OF YEARS, IT HAS A RESIDUAL EFFECT. Obradovich: IT'S A LITTLE SURPRISING ACTUALLY AFTER ALL OF THAT, THAT THE RACE IS AT A VIRTUAL TIE. IT SHOWS THAT, YOU KNOW, THE ORGANIZATION, WHICH IS GOING TO BE EXTREMELY IMPORTANT IN NOVEMBER, IS NOT ALL THERE IS. THIS RACE IS A VERY COMPETITIVE RACE, AND IT'S GOING TO CONTINUE TO BE COMPETITIVE. AND THE EFFECT ON THAT IS GENERALLY TO GET MORE PEOPLE INTERESTED AND PROBABLY MORE PEOPLE TO TURN OUT IN THE POLLS IN NOVEMBER. Beck: ODDLY ENOUGH, I'M ONE OF THOSE PEOPLE WHO BELIEVES THAT WHEN IT REALLY COMES DOWN TO IT, THOUGH, EVEN IF IT BRINGS MORE DEMOCRATS TO THE POLL AND MORE UNDECIDEDS THAT COME OUT AS DEMOCRATS, THAT THOSE THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN ELECTIVE OFFICE, SAY IOWA'S CONGRESSIONAL DELEGATION, WILL REMAIN THE SAME. I REALLY THINK IOWANS LIKE INCUMBENTS AND THEY ARE WILLING TO SPLIT THEIR TICKET. YOU KNOW, EVEN IF THEY WOULD VOTE KERRY AT THE TOP THAT THEY'RE WILLING TO SAY I WANT GRASSLEY, I WANT JIM LEACH, OR WHOEVER THE CASE MAY BE BUT, DESPITE ALL THAT EXCITEMENT, THAT REPUBLICANS IN CERTAIN RACES WILL STILL BE VERY SAFE. Glover: I THINK WE'RE DOWN TO A COUPLE OF STEP PROCESS. THIS RACE IS A DEAD TIE BECAUSE I THINK THAT PEOPLE ARE GETTING TO KNOW JOHN KERRY -- THE AVERAGE VOTER IS GETTING TO KNOW HIM. I THINK THEY HAVE -- MOST VOTERS THAT I'VE SEEN, MOST POLLS THAT I'VE SEEN SHOW VOTERS WILLING TO REPLACE PRESIDENT BUSH BUT NOT COMING TO THE CONCLUSION ABOUT WHETHER JOHN KERRY IS THE PERSON THAT THEY'LL REPLACE HIM WITH. AND IF YOU LOOK AT HISTORY, THOSE TYPE OF ELECTIONS TEND TO BREAK LATE AND TEND TO BREAK FAIRLY CLEARLY, AND ABOUT HALF THE TIME BREAKING IN FAVOR OF THE INCUMBENT AND ABOUT HALF THE TIME BREAKING AGAINST THE INCUMBENT. WHEN RONALD REAGAN RAN AGAINST JIMMY CARTER, THAT ELECTION WAS A DEAD TIE ALL SUMMER AND ALL FALL UNTIL THE END. REAGAN HAD A PRETTY GOOD DEBATE. PEOPLE SAID, "WELL, I'VE GOT SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS FORMER ACTOR, BUT I GUESS IT'S OKAY TO VOTE FOR HIM." SO THEY VOTED JIMMY CARTER OUT OF OFFICE. WHEN BILL CLINTON RAN AGAINST GEORGE BUSH, SR., THAT WAS A VERY CLOSE ELECTION MOST OF THE FALL INTO NOVEMBER. AND FINALLY CLINTON HAD A COUPLE OF GOOD DEBATES, AND IT BROKE AGAINST BUSH. Obradovich: ONE THING WE'RE SEEING IN IOWA, THOUGH, IS THAT THREE-QUARTERS OF THE PEOPLE WHO ARE ANSWERING THIS POLL SAY THEY'VE MADE UP THEIR MINDS. THE NUMBER OF UNDECIDED PEOPLE IS VERY SMALL CONSIDERING THAT IT'S ONLY JULY. NOW, PEOPLE CAN CHANGE THEIR MIND, CERTAINLY, AND PEOPLE HAVE INDICATED THEY'RE WILLING TO DO THAT. BUT STILL, WE'RE TALKING ABOUT A VERY SMALL SHARE OF SWING VOTERS WHO ARE GOING TO DECIDE THIS ELECTION. Borg: AND THAT'S A POINT. WHY THEN, IF THE POOL OF UNDECIDEDS IS SO SMALL AND PEOPLE ON EITHER SIDE HAVE ALREADY MADE UP THEIR MINDS, ARE THE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES SPENDING SO MUCH TIME IN IOWA IF IT'S ALREADY PRETTY MUCH DECIDED? Obradovich: WELL, IT'S DECIDED THAT IT'S TIED UP. I MEAN, YOU KNOW, THEY HAVE -- Borg: SO THE UNDECIDED BLOCK, NO MATTER HOW SMALL IT IS, IS IMPORTANT. Obradovich: YES, ABSOLUTELY. Beck: SMALL EVERYWHERE. Obradovich: AGAIN, THEY WANT PEOPLE TO CHANGE THEIR MINDS AS WELL. Glover: THERE'S A CONTRARY ARGUMENT TO THAT, AND KARL ROVE, I'VE HEARD HIM MAKE THIS, KARL ROVE BEING BUSH'S POLITICAL STRATEGIST. KARL ROVE SAYS IT'S NONSENSE TO THINK THAT UNDECIDEDS WILL DECIDE THIS ELECTION. THE UNDECIDED VOTE IN THE END WILL SPLIT ROUGHLY DOWN THE MIDDLE, AND WHAT THIS ELECTION REALLY IS, IS A TURNOUT GAME. THE COUNTRY IS DIVIDED RIGHT DOWN THE MIDDLE, AND THE ELECTION WILL BE A GAME OF WHO CAN TURN OUT THEIR BASE BEST. Dorman: WELL, THAT'S WHY THEY'RE COMING. I MEAN THEY'VE GOT TO PUSH THEIR FOLKS TO THE POLLS, AND THAT MEANS COMING HERE AND ASKING THEM AND ENERGIZING THEM AND ENERGIZING THE ORGANIZATION. Glover: AND THAT MEANS TYPICALLY WHEN WE GET INTO THE FALL CAMPAIGN, YOU'LL FIND CANDIDATES RACING TO THE MIDDLE. I DON'T THINK YOU'RE GOING TO SEE THAT THIS TIME. I THINK YOU'RE GOING TO SEE BOTH GEORGE BUSH AND JOHN KERRY TRYING TO ENERGIZE THEIR BASE, WHICH MEANS MOVING TO THE RIGHT AND LEFT. Borg: SO IT'S NOT SO MUCH A PERSUASION VISIT AS IT IS GET OUT AND CAMPAIGN FOR ME AND GET OUT AND VOTE. Glover: IT'S AN ENERGIZING EFFORT. Borg: LET'S LOOK AHEAD TO THE REPUBLICAN CONVENTION. WHAT DID YOU SEE THIS WEEK THAT SURPRISED YOU, PERHAPS, AND THAT YOU KNOW THAT THE REPUBLICAN CONVENTION IS GOING TO HAVE TO SCRAMBLE NOW TO TRY TO COUNTER IN THE WAY OF THEMES OR THE PORTRAYAL OF ANY OF THE CANDIDATES? Glover: I THINK ONE OF THE INTERESTING TENSIONS THAT I'M ALREADY HEARING A LITTLE BIT ABOUT AT THE REPUBLICAN CONVENTION IS THIS WHOLE THEME -- IF YOU LOOK AT WHO'S SPEAKING TO THE REPUBLICAN CONVENTION, IT'S A BUNCH OF MODERATES. THEY'RE VERY CAREFULLY TRYING TO PUT A MODERATE FACE ON A REPUBLICAN PARTY, AND I'M STARTING TO HEAR SOME GROWLING FROM THE RIGHT WING OF THAT PARTY SAYING, "WHAT ABOUT US? WE'RE THE BASE. HOW COME WE DON'T HAVE SOMEBODY AT THE CONVENTION." AND THE ANSWER, OF COURSE, IS IN 1992 PAT BUCHANAN THROUGH THE RED MEAT OUT AND THEY LOST THE ELECTION. BUT THERE'S GOING TO BE A TENSION BETWEEN THE CONSERVATIVE BASE OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, AND MODERATES WILL BE THE PUBLIC FACE OF THAT CONVENTION. DEMOCRATS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KEEPING THAT TENSION BEHIND THE SCENES. WE'LL SEE IF REPUBLICANS CAN DO THE SAME. Dorman: YEAH, WOULDN'T IT BE IRONIC IF THE DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION WAS A DISCIPLINED AFFAIR THAT WE SAW AND THE REPUBLICAN CONVENTION ENDED UP BEING A PARTY -- INNER-PARTY FIGHT. USUALLY THE ROLES ARE REVERSED. Borg: CHUCK GRASSLEY IS UP FOR ELECTION. WHAT ROLE OR INFLUENCE MIGHT HE HAVE ON THE WAY THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE WILL SWING? MIGHT THE SENATOR HAVE SOME COATTAILS FOR BUSH; DO YOU THINK? Glover: I THINK CHUCK GRASSLEY IS UP FOR REELECTION. HE'S RUNNING AGAINST AN UNDERFUNDED LITTLE-KNOWN CANDIDATE. RIGHT NOW YOU'D HAVE TO SAY THE ODDS ARE IN FAVOR OF CHUCK GRASSLEY NOT JUST TO WIN AN ELECTION BUT TO WIN AN ELECTION PRETTY EASILY AND BY A PRETTY BIG MARGIN. HOW HARD WILL HE WORK TO BUILD UP VOTER TURNOUT ON HIS BEHALF, I DON'T THINK WE KNOW THAT YET. HE'S FAIRLY COMFORTABLE RIGHT NOW. DEMOCRATS ARE NOT MOUNTING A BIG CHARGE AGAINST HIM. HE MIGHT COAST A LITTLE BIT. Obradovich: ONE THING THAT MIGHT BE MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN HIS POPULARITY IS HIS MONEY. HE WAS ABLE TO BUILD UP A BIG WAR CHEST THAT HE'S NOT GOING TO HAVE TO SPEND A LOT OF TO FIGHT A HOT RACE. A LOT OF THAT MONEY MAY FIND ITS WAY INTO OTHER REPUBLICAN RACES IN IOWA. Borg: WHAT WILL THE EFFECT BE, DO YOU THINK, ON REPUBLICANS BEING ABLE TO RETAIN CONTROL OF THE IOWA GENERAL ASSEMBLY OF THIS ELECTION? DO YOU THINK THAT'S STILL PRETTY MUCH A DEAD HEAT TOO? Beck: I THINK REPUBLICANS HAVE AN EDGE IN THE HOUSE BECAUSE THEY HAVE SOME SEATS THAT -- REPUBLICANS HAVE ABOUT FIVE OPEN SEATS, AND THEY FEEL PRETTY COMFORTABLE IN MAINTAINING AT LEAST THREE OR FOUR OF THEM. AND THEY SAID IF THEY LOSE AN INCUMBENT, GUESS WHAT, SO WILL THE DEMOCRATS. THAT'S PRETTY TYPICAL. AND ALSO, ONE OF THE THINGS THAT THE SPEAKER, CHRISTOPHER RANTS, LIKES TO POINT OUT, IS THAT THE LEADERS IN THE HOUSE, THE DEMOCRATIC LEADERS ARE MARY MASCHER, WHO IS FROM IOWA CITY. SHE'S THE WHIP. AND THEN THE ACTUAL MINORITY LEADER IS FROM DAVENPORT, PATRICK MURPHY. SO BOTH OF THEM ARE FROM VERY STRONG DEMOCRATIC AREAS AND HAVEN'T HAD TO RUN IN RACES WHERE IT'S THIS TIGHT BATTLE. AND HE'S NOT SURE WHETHER THEY KNOW HOW TO DO THAT. I'M SURE THEY THINK THEY KNOW HOW TO DO THAT, BUT THE ARGUMENT IS THAT THE DEMOCRATS HAVE A STRONGER CHANCE IN RETAKING THE SENATE. Glover: HISTORY WILL TEACH YOU THAT ELECTIONS RIGHT AFTER REDISTRICTING ARE THE CHANCE -- BEST CHANCE THAT MINORITY PARTIES HAVE TO MAKE GAINS. SO THAT WOULD SAY THAT 2002 WOULD HAVE BEEN THE ELECTION MOST DEMOCRATS HAD THE BEST CHANCE TO MAKE SOME GAINS IN THE LEGISLATURE. EVERYBODY IS RUNNING IN NEW DISTRICTS. A LITTLE BIT OF THE ADVANTAGE OF INCUMBENCY IS GONE, SO THAT WAS THEIR OPPORTUNITY. I THINK IT'S A MUCH TOUGHER BATTLE FOR THEM THIS TIME. Borg: THANKS FOR YOUR INSIGHTS. WELL, LOOKING AHEAD AS WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT HERE, THE PACE OF THE FINAL WEEKS LEADING UP TO THE NOVEMBER ELECTION, "IOWA PRESS" IS GOING TO BE TAKING A LITTLE BREATHER NOW DURING AUGUST. AND WHEN WE COME BACK ON SEPTEMBER 3, BEGINNING OUR 33RD SEASON, INCIDENTALLY, WE'LL BEGIN JUST WHERE WE LEAVE OFF TODAY, WITH A TEAM OF POLITICAL AND LEGISLATIVE REPORTERS DISCUSSING THE NUANCES OF THE 2004 CAMPAIGN. PROGRAM TIMES NEXT SEASON THE SAME: 7:30 FRIDAY, SUNDAYS AS NOON. BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS PROGRAMMING DURING AUGUST. ON FRIDAY EVENINGS THROUGHOUT AUGUST, IOWA PUBLIC TELEVISION REBROADCASTS THE "IMAGINE IOWA" SERIES WITH DAVE YEPSEN. ON AUGUST 6 DAVE DISCUSSES IOWA'S FUTURE WITH DIANE MUNNS OF THE IOWA UTILITIES BOARD; THE SAME TOPIC WITH MIKE GARTNER ON THE VISION IOWA BOARD ON AUGUST 13; WITH FRED KIRSCHENMANN OF THE LEOPOLD CENTER FOR SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE, THAT'S ON AUGUST 20; AND WITH VENTURE CAPITALIST JOHN PAPPAJOHN, AND THAT'S ON FRIDAY, AUGUST 27. DIANE MUNNS, THE CHAIRWOMAN OF THE IOWA UTILITIES BOARD, IS FIRST UP IN THAT SERIES. THAT'S NEXT FRIDAY AT 7:30. AND THAT'S THE SAME AIRTIME, 7:30 EACH FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THE MONTH OF AUGUST. AND THEN ON SUNDAY, AUGUST 15, THE ENTIRE "IMAGINE IOWA" SERIES WILL BE REBROADCAST ON THE SAME DAY ON STATEWIDE IOWA PUBLIC TELEVISION. "IMAGINE IOWA: A CONVERSATION WITH DAVE YEPSEN," AIRS FROM 3 TO 5 THAT AFTERNOON, FEATURING ALL FOUR OF YEPSEN'S GUESTS IN THE SERIES. AND THEN FROM 5 TO 6 IN AN HOUR, IT'S A REBROADCAST OF TODD MUNDT'S CONVERSATION WITH A ROUNDTABLE OF BUSINESS AND CIVIC NOTABLES, INCLUDING FORMER GOVERNOR TERRY BRANSTAD, MIKE GARTNER, DAVE YEPSEN, AND MORE. AS YOU CAN SEE, IT'S GOING TO BE A BUSY AUGUST FOR US, AND I HOPE YOU'LL WATCH. THAT'S IT FOR THIS WEEKEND'S EDITION OF "IOWA PRESS" AND FOR THIS SEASON. I'M DEAN BORG. THANKS FOR JOINING US TODAY.
CAPTIONS BY: MIDWEST CAPTIONING DES MOINES, IOWA FUNDING FOR THIS PROGRAM WAS PROVIDED BY "FRIENDS," THE IOWA PUBLIC TELEVISION FOUNDATION... GENERATIONS OF FAMILIES AND FRIENDS WHO FEEL PASSIONATE ABOUT THE PROGRAMS THEY WATCH ON IOWA PUBLIC TELEVISION; AND BY THE IOWA BANKERS ASSOCIATION... FOR PERSONAL, BUSINESS, AND COMMERCIAL NEEDS, IOWA BANKS HELP IOWANS REACH THEIR FINANCIAL GOALS. |
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