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| Iowa Legislative and Political Reporters IOWA PRESS #3218 >> Borg: 2004 SLIPS AWAY BUT ITS LEGACY SHAPES EVENTS IN THE NEW YEAR. IOWA LEGISLATIVE AND POLITICAL REPORTERS PROVIDE PERSPECTIVE ON THIS EDITION OF "IOWA PRESS." FUNDING FOR THIS PROGRAM WAS PROVIDED BY "FRIENDS," THE IOWA PUBLIC TELEVISION FOUNDATION; BY THE IOWA BANKERS ASSOCIATION... FOR PERSONAL, BUSINESS, AND COMMERCIAL NEEDS, IOWA BANKS HELP IOWANS REACH THEIR FINANCIAL GOALS; BY THE ASSOCIATED GENERAL CONTRACTORS OF IOWA, THE PUBLIC'S PARTNER IN BUILDING IOWA'S HIGHWAY, BRIDGE, AND MUNICIPAL UTILITY INFRASTRUCTURE; AND BY CAPITOL RESOURCES, INC., LOCATED IN BROOKLYN, IOWA; AND BY NICOLE SCHLINGER AND ERIC LANGE INDIVIDUALLY... FUND-RAISING AND COMMUNICATION SERVICES FOR MAJOR CAMPAIGNS SINCE 1996. Borg: ON STATEWIDE IOWA PUBLIC TELEVISION, THIS IS THE FRIDAY, DECEMBER 31 EDITION OF "IOWA PRESS." HERE IS DEAN BORG. Borg: HAPPY NEW YEAR FROM ALL OF US HERE AT IOWA PUBLIC TELEVISION, PARTICULARLY THE REPORTERS AND OUR PRODUCTION AND ENGINEERING CREWS WHO BRING THIS PROGRAM TO YOU THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. WELL, WE'RE GLANCING BACK ON THIS PROGRAM JUST LONG ENOUGH TO SINGLE OUT THOSE EVENTS AND NEWSMAKERS THAT WILL SHAPE 2005 AND BEYOND. IOWA HAD A BIG ROLE IN THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN, BOTH IN PICKING THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY'S CANDIDATE AND IN ELECTING THE PRESIDENT. THE YEAR ALSO SAW MORE IOWA MILITARY MEN AND WOMEN DEPLOYED TO IRAQ AS THE NATION SANK DEEPER INTO WAR. AT THE IOWA STATEHOUSE, THE REPUBLICAN GRIP ON THE IOWA LEGISLATURE SLIPPED AS A RESULT OF THE NOVEMBER ELECTION. ALL OF THOSE EVENTS AND OTHERS THAT I DIDN'T MENTION ARE RIPPLING INTO 2005. AND HERE AT THE "IOWA PRESS" TABLE TO ANALYZE THE EFFECTS OF THOSE RIPPLES: "DES MOINES REGISTER" COLUMNIST DAVID YEPSEN, "RADIO IOWA" NEWS DIRECTOR KAY HENDERSON, "ASSOCIATED PRESS" SENIOR POLITICAL WRITER MIKE GLOVER, AND "KUNI PUBLIC RADIO" STATEHOUSE CORRESPONDENT JENEANE BECK. HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL OF YOU. I FORGOT TO DO THAT. [ LAUGHTER ] Beck: AND YOU TOO, DEAN. Borg: KAY, LOOK BACK AT 2004 AND TELL ME IF YOU CAN SINGLE OUT AN EVENT THAT WILL HAVE THE MOST EFFECT ON THE LIVES OF IOWANS INTO 2005 OR BEYOND. Henderson: WELL, FOLKS MIGHT EXPECT ME TO CITE THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION OR THE SITUATION AT THE STATEHOUSE, BUT I THINK PERHAPS THE MOST PROFOUND EFFECT IN IOWA HAPPENED ON THE ISSUE OF GAMBLING. LEGISLATORS THIS PAST SESSION IN 2004, IN THE SPRING OF 2004, DECIDED THAT THE STATE RACING AND GAMING COMMISSION IN 2005 WILL BE GRANTING NEW LICENSES TO CASINOS IN THE STATE OF IOWA. WE DON'T KNOW HOW MANY THERE WILL BE YET. I THINK THAT'S A BIG CHANGE AND WILL HAVE A BIG EFFECT ON PARTICULAR AREAS OF THE STATE. IT ALSO CO-OPTED THE OPPONENTS, THE VOICES OF THOSE WHO OPPOSE GAMBLING IN IOWA. MANY OF THE KEY LEGISLATORS WHO WERE OPPONENTS OF IOWA OVER THE YEARS, WERE CO-OPTED INTO SUPPORTING THAT LEGISLATION BECAUSE SOME OF THE COMPONENTS WERE THINGS THAT THEY HAD LONG SOUGHT. IN ADDITION IN REGARDS TO GAMBLING, I THINK SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE A PROFOUND EFFECT ON CENTRAL IOWA IS THAT PRAIRIE MEADOWS ESTABLISHED ITSELF AS REALLY THE SOLE CASINO IN THE CENTRAL IOWA AREA, BECAUSE IT LOOKS AS IF THERE WILL NOT BE ANOTHER CENTRAL IOWA CASINO TO COMPETE WITH THAT. AND PRAIRIE MEADOWS IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS HAS ADDED TABLE GAMES. AND SO I THINK IF YOU LOOK AT THE PROFOUND EFFECT POLITICALLY IN IOWA, I THINK GAMBLING WAS A MAJOR ISSUE. AND THE THINGS THAT HAPPENED IN 2004 WILL HAVE AN EFFECT IN 2005 AND ON DOWN THE CENTURY. Glover: TWO THINGS, DEAN, ONE THAT HAPPENED AND ONE THAT DIDN'T HAPPEN. THE FIGHT OVER THE IOWA VALUES FUND: EVERYBODY OF BOTH POLITICAL PARTIES OF BOTH PERSUASIONS AGREES THAT GETTING IOWA'S ECONOMY GOING IS THE TOP ISSUE. THEY JUST DON'T AGREE ON HOW TO DO IT. YOU'VE GOT THE GOVERNOR WHO THINKS OF INVESTING IN IOWA BUSINESSES AND NEW BUSINESSES IS THE WAY TO GO. YOU'VE GOT REPUBLICANS IN THE LEGISLATURE WHO THINK THAT TAX CUTS, EASE REGULATIONS IS THE WAY TO GO. THAT DEBATE ISN'T RESOLVED, WASN'T RESOLVED. THE VALUES FUND LEGISLATION WAS STRUCK DOWN BY THE SUPREME COURT LAST YEAR. THAT WHOLE THING IS GOING TO BE PLAYED OUT ONCE AGAIN IN 2005. THE OTHER THING THAT DIDN'T HAPPEN IS THE PRIMARY CALENDAR DIDN'T GET LOCKED DOWN, SO WE DON'T KNOW IF IOWA IS GOING TO LEAD OFF THE NATION ONCE AGAIN. Borg: DAVE? Yepsen: WELL, I TAKE A LITTLE BIT BROADER PICTURE VIEW TO THAT QUESTION. I THINK PROFOUND EFFECT, THE WAR ON IRAQ, NOT ONLY IN TERMS THAT IT'S DIVIDED IOWANS AND THE ATMOSPHERICS IN IOWA POLITICS ARE VERY CORROSIVE RIGHT NOW, PEOPLE ARE REALLY AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER AT THAT, BOTH IN POLITICS AS WELL AS ON MAIN STREET. Borg: AND YOU THINK THAT IS A REASON FOR IT? Yepsen: I THINK THAT'S A LOT OF IT, DEAN. THE PASSION OVER THAT WAR JUST DRIVES A LOT OF THE VENOM THAT YOU FIND ELSEWHERE IN POLITICS, AND I CERTAINLY THINK THE COST OF THE WAR. THE FEDERAL BUDGET DEFICIT IS GROWING. THEY TRIED TO SLOW THE GROWTH, BUT IT'S BIG. HOW WE REDUCE IT WILL AFFECT FEDERAL SPENDING ON THINGS LIKE FARM PROGRAMS IN IOWA. IT'S GOING TO AFFECT INTEREST RATES, WHICH HAVE A BIG EFFECT ON OUR ECONOMY. SO I THINK THE WAR ON IRAQ. AND THE SECOND THING THAT I THINK IS A HUGE THING THAT WE'RE JUST NOW STARTING TO GET A PICTURE OF THAT'S GOING TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON US IN THE FUTURE IS THIS SOYBEAN RUST THING. DEAN, IT IS SCARY WHAT THAT CAN DO TO A SOYBEAN CROP. IF THAT HITS THE SOYBEAN CROP IN THIS STATE, IT COULD WIPE IT OUT. AND THAT WOULD HAVE A HUGE EFFECT ON OUR ECONOMY. SO IF YOU WANT SOMETHING TO STAY AWAKE AT NIGHT WORRYING ABOUT, WORRY ABOUT SOYBEAN RUST. Borg: JENEANE? Beck: WELL, I AGREE WITH MANY OF THE THINGS THEY'VE TALKED ABOUT, INCLUDING WHETHER OR NOT IOWA WILL MAINTAIN THE FIRST-IN-THE-NATION CAUCUSES, BUT AS WE LOOK AT MAYBE A SMALLER THING THAT HAPPENED IN THE LAST YEAR THAT I THINK WILL HAVE LONG-RANGING IMPACTS IS THE LEGISLATURE APPROVED SOMETHING CALLED JOINT CUSTODY OF KIDS, WHICH REQUIRES JUDGES TO AWARD JOINT CUSTODY OF CHILDREN IN A DIVORCE UNLESS THERE'S A REAL GOOD REASON THAT, YOU KNOW, DAMAGING TO CHILD THAT IT SHOULD NOT BE WITH ONE PARENT OR ANOTHER. AND THAT IS SOMETHING THAT I CONTINUE TO HEAR FROM LISTENERS THAT IS AFFECTING THEIR LIFE AND, YOU KNOW, IF THIS LAW IS IMPLEMENTED RIGHT, IF JUDGES ACTUALLY DO WHAT THE LAW TOLD THEM TO, THIS COULD HAVE LONG-RANGING IMPACTS ON THE WAY WE LIVE OUR LIVES AFTER DIVORCE. Glover: AND I THINK ONE OF THE THINGS THAT DAVE TOUCHED ON THAT I THINK IS GOING TO HAVE A MUCH MORE PROFOUND IMPACT THAN WE THINK RIGHT NOW IS THE FEDERAL BUDGET DEFICIT. I WAS TALKING WITH SOME PEOPLE UP AT THE STATEHOUSE A LITTLE WHILE AGO, AND THEY'RE PROFOUNDLY WORRIED ABOUT THE STATE'S MEDICAID PROGRAM AND OTHER PROGRAMS OF WHAT'S HAPPENING IN CONGRESS. THAT'S A JOINTLY FEDERAL AND STATE FUNDED PROGRAM. IT PROVIDES HEALTH CARE FOR THE POOR AND ELDERLY. THEY'RE TALKING ABOUT CUTTING BACK, EVEN AT A TIME WHEN MEDICAID COSTS ARE SOARING OUT OF CONTROL. SO A BAD STATE BUDGET PROBLEM IS GOING TO GET A LOT WORSE BECAUSE THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT IS GOING TO HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO START CUTTING BACK AND JUST TICK DOWN THE PROGRAMS. FARM PROGRAMS, HEALTH PROGRAMS, EVERY PROGRAM ACROSS THE BOARD IS GOING TO BE SUBJECT TO THAT BUDGET KNIFE. Yepsen: INFLATION IS COMING BACK BECAUSE OF THE FEDERAL BUDGET DEFICIT, AND THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON IOWA'S ECONOMY. AND IN SOME WAYS ITS BENEFICIAL. LAND VALUES WILL GO UP. THEY'RE ALREADY AT A RECORD, FOR EXAMPLE, SO THAT'S THE GOOD NEWS. THE DOLLAR IS GETTING WEAKER. WE DON'T LIKE THE IDEA OF A "WEAK DOLLAR." IT DOESN'T SOUND VERY ROBUST AND AMERICAN, BUT THE FACT IS IT MAKES OUR FARM COMMODITIES MORE MARKETABLE AND EASIER TO SELL. SO I JUST THINK THAT BUDGET DEFICIT QUESTION JUST CREEPS INTO EVERYTHING. Borg: I'M GLAD I ASKED THAT QUESTION. THERE WERE ANSWERS HERE THAT I WOULDN'T HAVE EVEN IMAGINED: SOYBEAN RUST, GAMBLING, PARENTAL CUSTODY, AND THE VALUES FUND, OF COURSE, MIKE. BUT ONE OF THE BIG THINGS THAT IOWANS SAW DURING 2004 WAS A PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN TO THE ENTH DEGREE. AND WERE WE -- MIKE, WERE WE UP TO THE TASK AS IOWANS? Glover: OH, IN THE WHOLE CAUCUS CAMPAIGN AND PICKING A NOMINEE? OH, I THINK SO. YOU CAN MAKE THE ARGUMENT THAT IOWA -- FLIP THE ARGUMENT AROUND ONE OF TWO WAYS, BUT YOU CAN MAKE THE ARGUMENT THAT IOWA GAVE A SURPRISING VICTORY TO JOHN KERRY IN THE LEAD-OFF EVENT, AN EVENT THAT NOT MANY OF US EXPECTED HIM TO WIN. THAT GAVE HIM MOMENTUM. THAT PROVED UNSTOPPABLE. HE LATER LOST THE ELECTION. A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE BLAMING IOWA RIGHT NOW. YOU NOMINATED A LOSER SO, THEREFORE, LET'S BLOW UP THE PROCESS. LET'S FLIP THE COIN AROUND A LITTLE BIT AND SAY OF THAT FIELD, LOOK AT THAT FIELD, WHO WOULD HAVE DONE BETTER THAN JOHN KERRY. STEP BACK AGAIN AND LOOK AT THE BIG PICTURE. MOST PRESIDENTS WHO RUN FOR REELECTION GET REELECTED. THE POWERS OF THE OFFICE ARE THUS. IF YOU'RE RUNNING AGAINST A SITTING PRESIDENT, IT'S A TOUGH TASK. IF YOU'RE RUNNING AGAINST A SITTING PRESIDENT IN WARTIME, AN EVEN TOUGHER TASK. SO WHO IN THE FIELD WOULD HAVE DONE BETTER THAN JOHN KERRY? I THINK THE ARGUMENT IS NOBODY. Yepsen: I THINK, DEAN, GEORGE MCGOVERN, THE FORMER SENATOR FROM SOUTH DAKOTA, ONCE SAID THAT THE COUNTRY'S POLITICS ARE A PENDULUM AND THEY SWING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN LIBERALS AND CONSERVATIVES. AND RIGHT NOW WE'RE IN A CONSERVATIVE TIME. THERE WILL BE TIMES IN THIS COUNTRY COMING IN THE FUTURE WHEN WE'LL NEED TO MOVE BACK TOWARD THE LEFT. AND HE HAS SAID THAT HISTORICALLY IT'S LIKE A PENDULUM THAT DRIVES THE ENGINE OF A CLOCK. SO THIS IS A CONSERVATIVE TIME. LIBERALS ARE KIND OF OUT OF FAVOR NOW, BUT THEIR DAY WILL COME AGAIN. THIS ECONOMY GOES INTO THE TANK, THE STOCK MARKET CRASH, THE HEALTH CARE PROBLEMS, YOU'LL SEE THE COUNTRY TURN BACK TO THE IDEA OF AN ACTIVIST GOVERNMENT. Borg: USING THAT ANALOGY, DO YOU THINK WHEREVER THAT PENDULUM IS THAT IOWA'S ROLE WILL CONTINUE AS IT IS NOW? OR IF IT SWINGS MORE THE NATION LIBERAL, MIGHT IOWA'S ROLE CHANGE IN SOME WAY? Yepsen: THE CAUCUSES ARE NOT CARVED IN STONE. A LOT OF IOWA POLITICIANS, I THINK, SEEM TO THINK THAT THEY ARE, AND THEY'RE NOT. IOWA POLITICIANS IN BOTH PARTIES HAVE TO FIGHT A BATTLE EVERY FOUR YEARS TO KEEP IOWA FIRST. THE STATE HAS ONE THING GOING FOR IT, AND THAT IS NOBODY CAN FIGURE OUT A BETTER SYSTEM. THE PARTY OUT OF POWER IS ALWAYS LOOKING AT THIS PROCESS TO SEE IF IT'S GIVING THEM FLAWED CANDIDATES, BUT NOBODY CAN REALLY AGREE ON AN ALTERNATIVE TO THE CAUCUS. BUT WE'RE GOING TO SPEND A LOT OF TIME IN THIS COMING YEAR TALKING ABOUT THIS ISSUE OF THE CAUCUSES AND WHO GOES FIRST. Borg: ANOTHER WAY TO ASK THAT QUESTION: DOES IOWA AND ITS DEMOGRAPHICS, DOES IT FAVOR ONE PARTY OVER THE OTHER OR ARE WE PRETTY MUCH EVENLY DIVIDED? Glover: NO, IT DOESN'T FAVOR ONE PARTY OVER THE OTHER. THIS STATE IS, I THINK AS A RESULT OF THIS LAST ELECTION, THE LAST TWO ELECTIONS REALLY -- IN 2000 IOWA WENT FOR AL GORE BY ABOUT 4,000 VOTES. IN 2004 IOWA WENT FOR GEORGE BUSH BY ABOUT 10,000 VOTES OUT OF A MILLION AND A HALF CAST. IF ANYTHING, THIS STATE IS A THIRD, A THIRD, AND A THIRD. A THIRD DEMOCRAT, A THIRD REPUBLICAN, AND A THIRD INDEPENDENT. SO, NO, THE DEMOGRAPHICS OF THE STATE DON'T FAVOR ONE PARTY OR THE OTHER. Beck: YOU CAN LOOK AT THE IOWA LEGISLATURE TO KNOW THAT. I MEAN YOU'VE GOT A SENATE SPLIT 25/25 BETWEEN REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS. A REPUBLICAN-CONTROLLED -- LED HOUSE AND A DEMOCRATIC GOVERNOR SO, OBVIOUSLY, THE STATE IS VERY EVENLY DIVIDED. Glover: IF YOU WANT TO GET REALLY SCARED ON ELECTION NIGHT, THE SENATE DID END UP 25/25. AND WE HAVE A LITTLE FEATURE ON THE WIRE ON ELECTION NIGHT THAT SAYS "TREND." IN OTHER WORDS, IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES, HERE WILL BE THE RESULT IN THE LEGISLATURE. FOR AN HOUR AND A HALF ON ELECTION NIGHT, THE CURRENT TREND WAS 25/25, 50/50. Borg: KAY, AS THE AGENDA AND SHAPE OF THE IOWA GENERAL ASSEMBLY BECOMES MORE CLEAR NOW AFTER THE ELECTION AND AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE CONVENING OF THE SESSION IN JUST A WEEK OR SO, WHAT IS YOUR INTUITION AS TO WHAT IOWANS CAN EXPECT FROM THIS SESSION? Henderson: I DON'T THINK IOWANS SHOULD EXPECT MUCH AT ALL. I THINK IT WILL BE AN OUTRIGHT MIRACLE IF THEY'RE ABLE TO PASS A BUDGET BY APRIL 30. ONE OF THE DIFFICULTIES IN THIS MIX IS THAT WE (A) DON'T KNOW HOW TOM VILSACK WILL REACT. HE'S SORT OF TAKEN HIMSELF OUT OF THE RUNNING FOR CHAIRMANSHIP OF THE DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE, WHICH MEANS THAT HE WON'T BE DIVERTED FROM BEING GOVERNOR BY HAVING MORE OF A FOCUS ON NATIONAL AFFAIRS. SO I THINK HE'S THE REAL DEAL MAKER OR THE DEAL BREAKER AT THE STATEHOUSE IN THE COMING YEARS. ANOTHER PROBLEM I THINK IS THAT REPUBLICANS AS YET AT THE LEGISLATIVE LEVEL HAVEN'T DEVELOPED AN AGENDA OF THEIR OWN. THEIR AGENDA FOR THE PAST SIX YEARS HAS BEEN EVERYTHING THAT VILSACK DOESN'T WANT IN MANY RESPECTS. AND SO I THINK IF REPUBLICANS HOPE TO WIN IN TWO MORE YEARS AT THE BALLOT BOX IN THE LEGISLATIVE RACES, THEY HAVE TO COME UP WITH SOMETHING TO BE FOR INSTEAD OF CONTINUALLY THROWING SOMETHING OVER THE FENCE THAT TOM VILSACK COULD TAKE A POTSHOT AT. Borg: OKAY. BUT LET ME REMIND YOU THAT A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO, THE SENATE REPUBLICAN PRESIDENT, JEFF LAMBERTI, WAS ON THIS VERY "IOWA PRESS" PROGRAM. AND I REMEMBER, NOT TO QUOTE HIM EXACTLY, BUT HE SAID GOVERNOR VILSACK SHOULD GOVERN IN THIS LEGISLATIVE SESSION BECAUSE -- INSINUATING THAT HE CAN EXERT MORE LEADERSHIP THE WAY THIS LEGISLATURE IS CONFIGURED. Henderson: WHICH IS TRUE. I MEAN THAT'S WHY I REFER TO HIM AS A DEAL MAKER, A DEAL BREAKER. ISN'T THIS A REMARKABLE POSITION FOR A DEMOCRATIC GOVERNOR WHO HAS SAID HE'S NOT SEEKING REELECTION? HE'S A LAME DUCK AND HE CAN REALLY RUN THE TABLE ON A LOT OF THINGS. Yepsen: DEAN, I DON'T THINK YOU CAN EVER GO WRONG BETTING SHORT ON THE IOWA LEGISLATURE. LET'S LOWER OUR EXPECTATIONS. IT'S DIVIDED. I THINK GOVERNOR VILSACK IN THIS CASE IS IN A UNIQUE POSITION, BUT I DON'T THINK IT'S A GOOD ONE. HE'S A LAME DUCK. AND I'LL GIVE YOU SOME EXAMPLES. HE'S OUT HERE TALKING ABOUT TAX POLICY CHANGES AND TOUGH CHOICES THAT IOWANS HAVE TO MAKE, STATE STANDARDS IN THEIR SCHOOLS. THAT'S REAL EASY FOR A POLITICIAN WHO'S NOT RUNNING FOR REELECTION, BUT I'VE HAD SEVERAL LEGISLATORS SAY TO ME, "YEAH, THAT'S REAL EASY FOR TOM VILSACK TO SAY. HE'S NOT RUNNING AGAIN; WE ARE." AND SO I DON'T EXPECT MUCH OUT OF HIM. AND FRANKLY, DEAN, THERE ARE A LOT OF REPUBLICANS UP THERE IN THE LEGISLATURE WHO ARE WHAT I CALL MOSSBACK REPUBLICANS. WHAT ARE THEY FOR? THEY'RE FOR DOING NOTHING. THEY'RE FOR STOPPING AN ACTIVIST GOVERNMENT. THEY DON'T WANT TO DO MUCH OF ANYTHING, AND THERE ARE A LOT OF PEOPLE IN IOWA WHO THINK THAT'S JUST FINE. THEY'RE NOT LOOKING FOR STATE GOVERNMENT TO DO A WHOLE LOT. Glover: WELL, IT'S TOO SOON TO KNOW FOR CERTAIN WHAT WE EXPECT OUT OF THIS LEGISLATURE. THE EARLY INDICATIONS ARE TO SCALE BACK YOUR EXPECTATIONS IN PART BECAUSE THERE IS, AS YOU MENTIONED, A STRONG PHILOSOPHY UP THERE OF LET'S GO UP TO THE IOWA LEGISLATURE AND DO AS LITTLE AS POSSIBLE. I REMEMBER TALKING TO REPUBLICAN LEGISLATORS ON THE NIGHT BEFORE THE FIRST DAY OF THE SESSION TO GET SOME KIND OF A SENSE OF HOW THEY THINK THINGS ARE GOING TO GO, AND THEY SAID, "WELL, I THINK IT'S GOING TO GO PRETTY GOOD. WE'RE GOING TO ADJOURN PRETTY EARLY. WE'RE GOING TO QUIT SOON." BUT THE OTHER THING THAT'S GOING TO START TAKING OVER SOONER RATHER THAN LATER IS WHAT YOU MENTIONED, KAY, THE NEXT GOVERNOR'S ELECTION. THERE'S ALREADY A LARGE AND ACTIVE FIELD IN BOTH PARTIES. THERE'S GOING TO BE A PRIMARY IN BOTH PARTIES. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN? THAT MEANS THOSE CANDIDATES WHO ARE GOING TO LEAD THE POLITICAL DEBATE IN THIS STATE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO PANDER TO THEIR BASE, THE LEFT WING OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY AND THE RIGHT WING OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY. SO THAT POLITICAL DEBATE IS GOING TO START TO TAKE OVER I THINK YET THIS WINTER. Borg: AND, JENEANE, SOMETHING LINGERING OVER FROM NOT ONLY 2004 BUT FROM YEARS PREVIOUS, WE DON'T HAVE THE MONEY. AND THAT'S AN EXCUSE ALSO FOR NOT DOING MUCH, OR CAN BE. Beck: WELL, EXACTLY, THE GOVERNOR HAS LAID OUT AN AMBITIOUS AGENDA FOR EDUCATION. WE DON'T HAVE ALL THE DETAILS YET ON HIS EARLY CHILDHOOD PROGRAMS, BUT IT'S OBVIOUS IT'S GOING TO COST MILLIONS OF DOLLARS, HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS OF DOLLARS POSSIBLY. THAT BEING SAID, THEY COME INTO THIS SESSION, THEY TOLD ME THEY HAVE $543 MILLION OF BUILT-INS. WE'RE ONLY GOING TO HAVE ABOUT $200 MILLION IN NEW REVENUE. THAT'S A BIG HOLE. YOU KNOW, THEY'RE GOING TO BE $300 MILLION SHORT POSSIBLY WHEN THEY WALK IN THE DOOR. SO AS MUCH AS THEY WANT TO DO ANYTHING NEW, THERE'S A HINDRANCE THERE. Yepsen: THEY CAN'T EVEN BE A DO-NOTHING LEGISLATURE. I MEAN THEY'VE GOT TO MAKE SOME CUTS. THEY'VE GOT TO ASSIGN SOME PRIORITIES. THEY WILL BE PAINFUL. THEY WILL BE CONTROVERSIAL. AND POLITICALLY, IT'S DIFFICULT TO DO THAT. I THINK REPUBLICANS ARE IN REAL TROUBLE WITH THE LEGISLATURE IN 2006. Borg: WHY? Yepsen: WELL, THE REASON I SAY THAT IS DEMOCRATS -- REPUBLICANS AREN'T -- THEY DON'T THINK THEY HAVE TO DO ANYTHING DIFFERENTLY. THERE'S SORT OF THIS HUBRIS. THERE'S THIS OH, WELL, BUSH WON... NEENER-NEENER-NEENER; WHEREAS, DEMOCRATS ARE SAYING, "WHAT DID WE DO WRONG? WHAT DO WE HAVE TO DO BETTER"? WELL, THE FACT IS DEMOCRATS MADE GAINS IN THE LEGISLATURE. EVEN IN THE FACE OF GEORGE BUSH WINNING THE STATE, THERE WERE MANY VOTERS IN IOWA WHO VOTED FOR GEORGE BUSH AND THEN -- AND EVEN A REPUBLICAN SENATOR AND A REPUBLICAN CONGRESSMAN WHO THEN VOTED FOR A DEMOCRATIC LEGISLATOR. NOW, THAT OUGHT TO BE A WAKEUP CALL TO THE REPUBLICANS IN THE IOWA LEGISLATURE THAT THEY ARE AN ENDANGERED SPECIES, BECAUSE IN THE '06 ELECTION, IT WILL BE AN OFF-YEAR ELECTION, THE REPUBLICANS HAVE THE WHITE HOUSE, SOME OF THIS PAIN WILL COME HOME TO ROOST ON THEM. AND TOM VILSACK, ON HIS WAY OUT THE DOOR, WILL BE FREE TO RUN UP AND DOWN THIS STATE CAMPAIGNING ABOUT THE DO-NOTHING REPUBLICAN LEGISLATURE. Glover: KAY TOUCHED ON A POINT THAT I THINK WE CAN EXPAND ON AND MAY MAKE A BIGGER IMPACT UP THERE THAN WE THINK: WHAT DO REPUBLICANS STAND FOR? UP UNTIL THIS POINT, REPUBLICANS HAVE SAID, "WE'RE GOING TO JUMPSTART THE ECONOMY BUT CUTTING TAXES. WE'RE GOING TO JUMPSTART THE ECONOMY BY EASING BUSINESS REGULATIONS." TALK TO THEM NOW AFTER THIS ELECTION. WHAT ARE THEY SAYING? "WELL, WE CAN'T DO A TAX CUT. YOU KNOW, WE DON'T HAVE ENOUGH MONEY. YEAH, WE'VE GOT TO CUT SOME STATE SPENDING, BUT WE DON'T KNOW WHERE YET." WHAT DO THEY STAND FOR AS A PARTY? Yepsen: AND THE FACT THAT THE STATEHOUSE REPUBLICANS -- THE SENATE REPUBLICANS HAD THAT FIGHT BETWEEN JEFF LAMBERTI AND STEWART IVERSON, OVER WHETHER THEY WANTED AN ACTIVIST KIND OF CONSERVATISM THAT WAS OUT THERE ATTACKING PROBLEMS AND PASSING A FLAT TAX, FOR EXAMPLE. AND IVERSON'S VIEWPOINT, WHICH IS SORT OF THIS MOSSBACK VIEW -- I SAY THAT CHARITABLY BUT I MEAN THERE'S SORT OF THAT LET'S-NOT-DO-A-WHOLE-LOT VIEW OF GOVERNMENT, AND THAT SIDE -- IVERSON'S SIDE WON. HE IS THE REPUBLICAN LEADER IN THE SENATE, SO IT IS CLEAR TO ME THAT REPUBLICANS IN THE IOWA LEGISLATURE AREN'T GOING THERE WITH A WHOLE LOT THEY WANT TO DO, AND I THINK, POLITICALLY, THAT COULD BE A MISTAKE FOR THEM. Glover: AND I THINK THERE'S ANOTHER BIG DANGER HERE THAT WE HAVEN'T TALK ABOUT YET, AND THAT IS IF YOU'RE SO DIVIDED ON BIG ISSUES LIKE TAXES AND SPENDING, YOU CAN'T REALLY COME TO A POLITICAL CONSENSUS BECAUSE THE VOTERS OF THE STATE DIDN'T REACH A POLITICAL CONSENSUS ABOUT IT. THERE'S A BIG DANGER. WHEN YOU CAN'T ACT ON THE BIG ONES, LET SOME GOOFY LITTLE THING LIKE DOVE HUNTING COME ALONG AND TAKE OVER A SESSION. I'VE SEEN IT HAPPEN BEFORE AND IT COULD HAPPEN THIS TIME. Borg: BUT, KAY, IT DOESN'T TAKE BUDGET MONEY. IN FACT, YOU CAN GET BUDGET MONEY IF YOU INCREASE TAXES OR REVISE THE TAX CODE. AND GOVERNOR VILSACK IS -- HE'S VERY CAREFUL TO SAY REVENUE NEUTRAL IN WHAT I WANT TO DO, BUT HE WANTS TO REVISE THE TAX CODE. Henderson: RIGHT. I MEAN THAT IS A HUGE TASK FOR ANYBODY TO UNDERTAKE. THEY TRIED IT LAST YEAR WHEN THEY HAD, I GUESS, MORE AGREEMENT AND THEY WEREN'T ABLE TO DO IT -- TWO YEARS AGO, RATHER. I THINK THE MOST LIKELY TAX TO BE RAISED THIS YEAR WOULD BE THE CIGARETTE TAX, BUT THAT'S NOT A SLAM DUNK EITHER. THEY'RE FINDING THEMSELVES IN A HUGE HOLE WHEN IT COMES TO MEDICAID, BECAUSE THE STATE BUDGET THAT THEY'VE PASSED AS THEY WENT HOME IN THE SPRING WAS NOT ADEQUATE IN REGARDS TO FUNDING THAT PROGRAM, WHICH PROVIDES HEALTH CARE TO POOR AND ELDERLY IN IOWA. THEY'VE GOT TO DO SOMETHING TO FILL THE HOLE, AND CIGARETTE TAXES SEEM THE MOST LIKELY WAY TO GET THAT MONEY. Yepsen: POLITICALLY, I MEAN -- SOME PEOPLE ARE TALKING ABOUT A DOLLAR A PACK. IF YOU DID THAT, THAT WOULD CREATE A LOT OF BOOTLEGGING INTO THE STATE OF UNTAXED CIGARETTES, SO IT COULD DEFEAT THE WHOLE PURPOSE. I MEAN 25, 50 CENTS IS POSSIBLE, BUT EVEN THERE THE POLITICAL HIT FOR VOTING FOR A TAX INCREASE IS THE SAME WHETHER IT'S A QUARTER OR A DOLLAR. IT STILL SHOWS UP ON YOUR OPPONENT'S BROCHURE IN THE NEXT ELECTION: YOU PROMISED NOT TO RAISE TAXES, AND YOU RAISED THE CIGARETTE TAX. YOU TALK ABOUT THE INCOME TAX, DEAN, AND HOW VILSACK WANTS THAT TO BE REVENUE NEUTRAL TO THE STATE. UNFORTUNATELY FOR HIM, HIS PROPOSAL IS NOT REVENUE NEUTRAL TO TAXPAYERS. IT WOULD INCREASE TAXES ON HIGHER INCOME IOWANS. THAT'S A NONSTARTER WITH REPUBLICANS. Borg: JENEANE, WHO ARE THE PLAYERS IN THESE TAX DECISIONS? IS THERE ONE SIDE THAT SAYS, NO, WE DON'T WANT ANY? AND WHO ARE THEY, IF YOU CAN IDENTIFY THEM FOR ME. WE DON'T WANT TO REVISE -- DO AWAY WITH FEDERAL DEDUCTABILITY, FOR EXAMPLE. Beck: I THINK THE PLAYERS WILL HAVE TO BE THE LEADERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HOUSE, BECAUSE IN THE SENATE THERE WILL BE MEMBERS AND THERE ARE SOME REPUBLICANS IN THE HOUSE AS WELL. THERE ARE A FEW THAT SERVE ON, SAY, THE HUMAN SERVICES COMMITTEE WHO SEE THE SHORTFALL IN MEDICAID AND SEE THE CIGARETTE TAX AS A POSSIBLE SAVIOR FOR THAT. AND SO I THINK IT'S GOING TO HAVE TO BE LEADERSHIP TWISTING THE ARMS OF THE NEW MEMBERS SAYING, YOU KNOW, I KNOW THAT THIS IS THE ONE TAX THAT IS THE MOST ATTRACTIVE IF YOU'RE GOING TO RAISE ONE BUT, NO, LET'S HOLD TOGETHER, LET'S NOT DO IT. SO THAT WILL HAVE TO BE THE CHRIS RANTS OF THE WORLD WHO LIVE ON A BORDER COMMUNITY AND SAY, NO, NO, NO, THEY'LL BE BUYING CIGARETTES ACROSS IN NEBRASKA AND I DON'T WANT THAT. I THINK ON THE OTHER -- I MEAN I SEE HIM BEING A LEADER EVEN ON THE ISSUE. HE'S THE MOST VOCAL OPPOSITION TO ALSO THE EXPANSION OF THE SALES TAX, WHICH HE THINKS WILL HURT SMALL BUSINESSES THAT THE GOVERNOR WANTS TO DO, EXPANDING IT TO ATTORNEY'S FEES AND GARDENING FEES AND THINGS LIKE THAT. AND HE'S ALSO THE MOST VOCAL OPPONENT TO THE INCOME TAX CHANGES, AND HE SAYS, LIKE DAVID SAYS, THAT WILL HURT CERTAIN HIGH INCOME EARNERS. SO I THINK THAT RIGHT NOW, HE'S A BIG OPPONENT THAT WILL HAVE SOME POWER. Glover: I THINK YOU CAN TAKE THE CIGARETTE TAX TO THE BANK, FRANKLY. WHAT I'M HEARING FROM REPUBLICANS AT THE LEGISLATURE, WHO YOU WOULD THINK WOULD BE THE MOST OPPOSED TO A JEFF LAMBERTI SAYS, "WELL, THERE ARE PEOPLE IN MY PARTY WHO ARE LIKELY TO SUPPORT THAT." YOU HEAR CHRIS RANTS SAY A CIGARETTE TAX OUGHT TO BE AN OPTION OF LAST RESORT. HE DOESN'T SAY WE'RE NOT GOING TO DO THE CIGARETTE TAX. IT'S AN OPTION OF LAST RESORT. WELL, THE OPTION OF LAST RESORT IS WE EITHER KICK PEOPLE OFF MEDICAID ROLLS, WE CUT BENEFITS FOR PEOPLE WHO ARE ON MEDICAID, MEANING POOR AND ELDERLY PEOPLE, KICK PEOPLE OUT OF NURSING HOMES, FOR INSTANCE, OR WE RAISE THE CIGARETTE TAX. AT THE END OF THE DAY, POLITICALLY, I THINK I KNOW THE CHOICE THAT THEY'RE GOING TO MAKE. Yepsen: BUT IN A REPUBLICAN PRIMARY FOR GOVERNOR, THE GUY WHO IS UP AT THE LEGISLATURE VOTING FOR TAX INCREASES IS GOING TO BE IN TROUBLE. I THINK THAT'S PART OF WHAT'S GOING ON WITH CHRIS RANTS. I MEAN THE SPEAKER IS THINKING ABOUT MAYBE RUNNING FOR GOVERNOR. YOU DON'T WIN REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES FOR GOVERNOR BY GOING AROUND VOTING FOR TAX INCREASES. Borg: BEFORE WE GET TO THAT TICKET FOR THE GOVERNOR -- I DO WANT TO COVER THAT, DAVE -- I WANT TO ASK KAY, ON THE TAXES, WHAT DO YOU PREDICT ON THE VALUES FUND? NOW, THAT'S NOT A TAX BUT IT IS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT. WE SAW A BIG PHILOSOPHICAL FIGHT -- MIKE TALKED ABOUT IT EARLIER HERE -- IN THE 2004 SESSION. THE SUPREME COURT STEPPED IN ON A TECHNICALITY ON THE GOVERNOR'S VETO AND INVALIDATED WHAT THEY DID ON THE VALUES FUND, CAME BACK WITH A SPECIAL SESSION, AND SORT OF DID A QUICK REPAIR ON THAT. BUT MIKE SAYS THE FIGHT ISN'T OVER. Henderson: THE FIGHT ISN'T OVER. THE PROBLEM IS WHERE DO YOU GET THE MONEY. AND I'M GOING TO THROW A NAME OUT HERE THAT MANY IOWANS HAVE NO IDEA WHO THIS PERSON IS. HIS NAME IS CLARENCE HOFFMAN. HE'S A BEHIND-THE-SCENES REPUBLICAN IN THE HOUSE, WHO HAS BEEN A LONG-TIME SUPPORTER OF THIS. HE'S FROM NORTHWEST IOWA AND HE IS QUIETLY TRYING TO COME UP WITH WAYS TO FUND THIS VALUES FUND, THIS HUGE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT FORAY, IN TERMS OF PERHAPS BORROWING MONEY, IN TERMS OF USING EXCESS GAMBLING TAXES. WE'RE GOING TO HAVE SOME NEW CASINOS IN IOWA. IN THE FUTURE THOSE CASINOS ARE GOING TO BE PAYING TAXES TO THE STATE. LET'S USE THAT MONEY TO FINANCE THIS VALUES FUND. SO IT MAY BE A COMBINATION OF BONDING. IT MAY BE A COMBINATION OF USING THOSE GAMBLING TAXES. BUT I THINK IN TERMS OF WHO THE PLAYERS ARE, I THINK CLARENCE HOFFMAN ON THAT LITTLE PROJECT IS GOING TO PLAY A HUGE ROLE IN DETERMINING WHETHER IT SUCCEEDS OR FAILS. Glover: AND I'VE HEARD THE SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE SAY SOMETHING REMARKABLE THE OTHER DAY. THERE SEEMS TO BE AN EMERGING CONSENSUS AT THE STATEHOUSE. WE'RE GOING TO NEGOTIATE OVER DETAILS OF HOW YOU PAY FOR IT. YES, GAMBLING MONEY IS GOING TO BE A PART OF THAT MIX. YEAH, A LITTLE BORROWING IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE A PART OF THAT MIX. BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE A CONSENSUS THAT AN IOWA VALUES FUND IS GOING TO BE APPROVED. IN FACT, THE SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE JUST THE OTHER DAY SAID THAT MAY BE ONE OF THE LEAST CONTENTIOUS ISSUES THEY FACE. Beck: WAIT TILL THEY GET TO THE SENATE. IT MAY BE IN THE HOUSE BUT IN THE SENATE -- WHILE SOME OF THE PEOPLE THAT OPPOSED THE IOWA VALUES FUND IN ITS INCEPTION, THE KITTY REHBERGS, ARE NOT IN THE LEGISLATURE ANYMORE. SOME RETIRED. THERE IS STILL GOING TO BE THE QUESTION OF AS THEY LOOK AT THE GRANTS THAT HAVE BEEN MADE THUS FAR, IN THEIR OPINIONS THEY WENT TO THE BIG CITIES. THEY WENT TO THE WELLS FARGOS, TO BLUE BUNNY, WHICH ISN'T A LARGE CITY, LEMARS, BUT THEY FEEL THAT SOME OF THAT -- TOO MUCH OF THAT WENT TO THE DES MOINES AREA, THE METROPOLITAN AREAS. AND THERE ARE GOING TO BE RURAL LAWMAKERS IN THE SENATE WHO SAY, "THE ONLY WAY I'M SIGNING OFF ON THIS IS THERE IS SOME SORT OF GUARANTEE THAT MONEY COMES HOME TO MY COMMUNITY." Yepsen: I THINK IT'S A VERY GOOD POINT, AND I THINK REPUBLICANS ARE MORE COMFORTABLE WITH THE IDEA THAT GOVERNMENT SHOULD BE PICKING SOME WINNERS AND LOSERS IN DOING THIS. AND YOU CAN USE GAMBLING MONEY TO FINANCE IT, BUT THEY'VE GOT TO FIGURE OUT A WAY TO GET IT INTO RURAL IOWA. THIS JUST CAN'T BE A DEAL FOR THE BIG CITIES. Borg: WE'RE COMING DOWN TO ABOUT A MINUTE AND A HALF. I WISH WE HAD MORE TIME TO TALK ABOUT THE CANDIDATES FOR GOVERNOR. BUT, KAY, DAVE HAS SAID THE LEGISLATURE MIGHT HELP SOME AND HURT OTHERS. THEY'VE GOT TO BE VERY CAREFUL HOW POTENTIAL CANDIDATES UP THERE CONDUCT THEMSELVES. WHO ARE THE CANDIDATES? Henderson: I THINK TWO TO WATCH RIGHT NOW ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE. JIM NUSSLE, HE'S CHAIRMAN OF THE HOUSE BUDGET COMMITTEE. HE HAS A POT OF MONEY THAT HE'S RAISED FOR HIS CONGRESSIONAL RACE, ABOUT $330,000, THAT HE CAN USE ON A STATE RACE. ON THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE I THINK YOU NEED TO KEEP YOUR EYE ON CHET CULVER. HE'S ALIGNING DEMOCRATIC APPARATUS FOLKS BEHIND HIM. SO I THINK THOSE AT THIS POINT AND TIME ARE THE TWO LEAD HORSES IN RESPECT TO BOTH PARTIES. Glover: AND DOUG GROSS, WHO WAS THE NOMINEE 2002, HAS ALREADY SAID HE'S LIKELY TO MAKE ANOTHER RUN. BOB VANDER PLAATES, A SIOUX CITY BUSINESSMAN WHO RAN IN 2002 AND RAN A PRETTY CREDIBLE CAMPAIGN, HAS SAID HE'S GOING TO RUN AGAIN. HE CAN COUNT ON THAT SUPPORT FROM EVANGELICAL CONSERVATIVES IN NORTHWEST IOWA, AN IMPORTANT FORCE IN REPUBLICAN POLITICS. Beck: THERE'S MORE REPUBLICANS THAT HAVE ANNOUNCED SO FAR THAN DEMOCRATS. Yepsen: AND IT WILL BE A WIDE-OPEN RACE AND WILL HAVE LOTS OF TWISTS AND TURNS AND WILL GIVE US PLENTY TO TALK ABOUT ALL YEAR LONG, DEAN. Borg: ONE MORE SOMETHING TO TALK ABOUT HERE. AND THAT IS, IS THERE ANYTHING THAT WILL HURT OR HELP ANY OF THOSE CANDIDATES THAT YOU CAN THINK OF IMMEDIATELY? Yepsen: ALL OF THEM HAVE PLUSES AND MINUSES. THAT'S WHY IT'S NOT CLEAR THERE'S A WINNER. I MEAN A LOT OF PEOPLE AREN'T SURE CULVER IS UP TO THE TASK. A LOT OF REPUBLICANS ARE WORRIED ABOUT NUSSLE AND THE DEFICIT, AND GROSS IS A LOSER AND HOG LOT LAWYER. I MEAN THAT'S WHAT MAKES IT GREAT. WE WILL BE TALKING ABOUT IT ALL YEAR, DEAN. Borg: ALL RIGHT. THAT'S A PROMISE. THANKS A LOT FOR YOUR INSIGHTS TODAY. ON OUR NEXT EDITION OF "IOWA PRESS," ON THE EVE OF THE CONVENING OF THE FIRST SESSION OF IOWA'S 81ST GENERAL ASSEMBLY, WE'LL DISCUSS THE LEGISLATIVE AGENDA WITH THE TOP REPUBLICAN IN THE IOWA HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES. HOUSE SPEAKER CHRISTOPHER RANTS OF SIOUX CITY WILL DISCUSS THE LEGISLATIVE PRIORITIES AND PERHAPS ACKNOWLEDGE SOME OF THE POLITICAL REALITIES FOR THE NEW SESSION BEING TALKED ABOUT HERE TODAY. THAT NEW SESSION, OF COURSE, BEGINS MONDAY, JANUARY 10. CHRISTOPHER RANTS NEXT WEEKEND. I HOPE YOU'LL WATCH 7:30 FRIDAY, SUNDAY AT NOON. INCIDENTALLY, JANUARY 10TH'S CONVENING OF A NEW LEGISLATIVE SESSION BEGINS A BUSY WEEK FOR IOWA PUBLIC TELEVISION. ON TUESDAY, THAT'S THE DAY AFTER THE SESSION CONVENES, GOVERNOR TOM VILSACK PROFILES HIS LEGISLATIVE PRIORITIES IN HIS ANNUAL CONDITION OF THE STATE ADDRESS TO A JOINT SESSION OF THE IOWA GENERAL ASSEMBLY, AND IOWA PUBLIC TELEVISION WILL BE THERE. YOU'LL SEE THE GOVERNOR'S ADDRESS LIVE AT 10:00 IN THE MORNING, REBROADCAST THAT EVENING AT 6:30. I HOPE YOU'LL MARK IT FOR SOME MORE INSIGHT INTO IOWA'S FUTURE. I'M DEAN BORG. THANKS FOR JOINING US TODAY. CAPTIONS BY: MIDWEST CAPTIONING DES MOINES, IOWA FUNDING FOR THIS PROGRAM WAS PROVIDED BY "FRIENDS," THE IOWA PUBLIC TELEVISION FOUNDATION; BY THE IOWA BANKERS ASSOCIATION... FOR PERSONAL, BUSINESS, AND COMMERCIAL NEEDS, IOWA BANKS HELP IOWANS REACH THEIR FINANCIAL GOALS; BY THE ASSOCIATED GENERAL CONTRACTORS OF IOWA, THE PUBLIC'S PARTNER IN BUILDING IOWA'S HIGHWAY, BRIDGE, AND MUNICIPAL UTILITY INFRASTRUCTURE; AND BY CAPITOL RESOURCES, INC., LOCATED IN BROOKLYN, IOWA, AND BY NICOLE SCHLINGER AND ERIC LANGE INDIVIDUALLY, FUND-RAISING AND COMMUNICATION SERVICES FOR MAJOR CAMPAIGNS SINCE 1996. |
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