Iowa Public Television


USDA Predicts Record Soybean Crop

posted on July 12, 2013

The report estimated U.S. old crop corn ending stocks tightened as the amount was lowered by 5 percent to 729 million bushels. The reduction was due to delayed planting and the potential for a later harvest.

Globally, old crop corn ending stocks were pegged less than 1 percent lower at a tight 123.6 million metric tons. The cut resulted in an estimated stocks-to use ratio of 6.9 percent.

Guesstimates on the number of corn acres planted increased slightly but the expected number of harvested acres decreased. If realized, production would fall slightly but still result in a record crop of 13.95 billion bushels.

Domestic new crop ending stocks were virtually unchanged at 1.96 billion bushels. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 15.4 percent which some analysts said represents a major build in supplies. Government officials predict prices will remain unchanged from last month’s report at an average of $4.80 per bushel.

Globally, new crop corn ending stocks are expected to be 150.97 million metric tons resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 16.2 percent. If realized, that would be a 3-year high, but some analysts are concerned the transition from old crop to new crop could be problematic.

USDA officials left domestic old crop soybean ending stocks unchanged from last month at 125 million bushels. The snug 4.1 percent stocks-to-use ratio is expected to have producers keeping a close watch on supplies.

As forecast last month, planting delays enticed farmers to plant 700,000 more acres of soybeans.  USDA predicts a record 3.42 billion bushels will go into the bin this fall.

New crop ending stocks were expected to increase more than 10 percent to 295 million bushels creating a domestic stocks-to-use ratio of 9 percent. If realized, that would be the largest in 6 seasons. USDA analysts left price estimates unchanged at an average of $10.75 per bushel.

U.S. ending stocks for old crop wheat were cut nearly 4 percent to 718 million bushels resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 30 percent.

Globally, old crop wheat ending stocks were pegged at 174.8 million metric tons. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio of 26 percent continues a 5-year trend of decreasing global reserves.

Federal analysts estimate the total U.S. wheat harvest this fall will hit 2.1 billion bushels. USDA officials pushed the season average price nearly 3 percent higher to $7.10 per bushel.

According to USDA, new crop U.S. wheat ending stocks are expected to increase slightly to 576 million bushels. All this sets the stage for a stocks-to-use ratio of 24 percent.

Globally, Federal prognosticators cut wheat ending stocks by 5 percent to 172.38 million metric tons. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio would be a 5-year low of 25 percent.

Despite the fact analysts believe supply will meet projected demand, the trend of declining global and domestic supplies indicates wheat is not rebuilding stocks like other grains.

Tags: corn soybean soybeans stocks-to-use ratio WASDE wheat