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Private Analysts Call For Record Crop

posted on August 5, 2010


On Thursday, Russia announced it is banning grain exports for the rest of the year because severe drought and wildfires have destroyed 20 percent of its wheat crop.

Among the world's largest exporters of grain, Russia said the ban will begin Aug. 15 and through Dec. 31 and could even be extended into next year if necessary.

The price of wheat, which has already jumped 70 percent on world markets this summer, rallied even further on Russia's announcement.

Experts say the United States, Argentina and Australia will gain the most from the spike in wheat prices, because Canada and the European Union are not expected to have abundant harvests this year.

And, according to private estimates, U.S. growers also will be the beneficiaries of record corn and soybean production.

Private Analysts Call For Record Crop

With USDA already predicting a record harvest of 13.2 billion bushels in the fall, the two most quoted private commodity firms put the amount even higher. Informa is calling the harvest at 13.4 billion bushels while FC Stone is expecting a slightly lower 13.3 billion bushels.

Last month, USDA estimated corn yields at 163.5 bushels -- just below last year's record of nearly 165 bushels per acre. And now both private firms are calling for yields in record territory. Informa is predicting farmers will harvest an average 166 bushels of corn per acre while FC Stone pegs the amount at 165.8 bushels per acre.

Predictions for soybeans differed little from the official estimate of 3.3 billion bushels but just enough to call it a record. Informa is placing the harvest at 3.4 billion bushels.

And while USDA has soybean yields at 43 bushels per acre, Informa analysts see the amount a half-bushel lower at 43.5 bushels per acre. FCStone was a bit more optimistic expecting yields to match last year's record of 44 bushels per acre.

 


Tags: agriculture crops markets news wheat