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Market Plus: May 28, 2010: Market Analyst Jamey Kohake

posted on May 28, 2010

Market Plus: May 28, 2010: Market Analyst Jamey Kohake Pearson: This is the Friday, May 28, 2010 version of Market Plus. Thanks for joining us here at our Market to Market Web site. I'm Mark Pearson. With us this week one of our regular market analysts, Jamey Kohake. Jamey, you brought up some interesting stuff on one of my favorite commodities and that is wheat. A stronger basis, some crop concerns over in Europe and over into the Ukraine. Something could be developing there. We've had this very bearish wheat supply situation for a while. How do you make it work?

Kohake: That's right. We've had a large carry out domestically and worldwide for quite some time. We have seen some sporadic short covering a little bit here and there. I don't think we're going to shoot straight up right now over $5 to be able to sell into. I think longer term though this could finally maybe eat into a little bit of our carryout and be able to provide some selling opportunities sometime this fall maybe.

Pearson: Well, you're coming right into harvest season here so you've got to be a little careful don't you?

Kohake: Yeah, historically you stay short until you're 50% done and pretty much there's nothing on the map right now being done. But, yeah, sell rallies short-term. The big key with wheat has been recently and will be the trending dollar if we're going to go up to 90 or if we stall out in here to be able to spur some more short covering. But I would sell rallies.

Pearson: You mentioned the strength at the Gulf which is interesting for this time of the year just on the throws of harvest here in the United States. But demand being as strong as it is particularly versus what's happening with currencies.

Kohake: Yeah, even considering Baltic Sea wheat our break even is $4.50 with theirs, we're still higher than that. But it looks like you just might see some positioning assuming we could see a shorter crop and I don't think it's going to happen tomorrow or next week but longer term I think it's just something to hopefully get this carry out down to a reasonable level and be able to do some hedging maybe for next year. But short-term we need help with the dollar and probably the corn and beans also.

Pearson: At this stage of the game as we look at where we are in the corn crop and where we are in the soybean crop and you start looking at the numbers they look a little daunting for both corn and beans as far as carry out is concerned without something happening albeit China or someone.

Kohake: That's right. Fundamentally there's no reason at all to really consider the long side in corn, beans or wheat. Just keep selling rallies until you're proved wrong and I think that is a trend, $4.00 December corn, just sell $4.20, $4.25 December 2011 sell up in here and until the weather changes I think the rallies are to be sold into. We've got about a 30 range on December corn, $3.70 to $4.00 today. We're right back to the middle of that right around $3.80 and if we can get back in the lower 90s sometime next week I'd get back short again.

Pearson: All right. Well, as usual appreciate your insights, Jamey. Different perspective. Thank you so much. That's going to wrap up Market Plus for this week. For all of us here on Market to Market I want to thank Jamey Kohake and have a great holiday weekend. We'll be back with you again next week with more Market Plus.

Tags: agriculture commodity prices markets news