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Market Plus: Mar 12, 2010

posted on March 12, 2010


Market Plus: Mar 12, 2010

Pearson: This is the Friday, March 12, 2010 version of Market Plus here at our Market to Market Web site. We're so glad you've joined us. With us this week one of our regular market analysts, Sue Martin. Sue, I'll tell you what, it's been a rough go in the corn and soybean markets for people who are holding onto product. It's worked well for the livestock producers finally getting a break on feed costs. But between wheat, corn and beans there's been a lot of bear markets. You focused a lot on the show Friday night on soybeans and an acreage number that's going to be very interesting although, like you said, somewhat inaccurate in March. But farmers are going to have some leeway as what is it they do this spring. So, this market is going to have to buy some corn acres, maybe lose some bean acres. What's your take?

Martin: Well, I certainly think so. And, of course, I will say this -- you know, we passed the senate with the jobs bill and, of course, that had the biodiesel --

Pearson: Tax credit in there.

Martin: Thank you. I was trying to come up with that word. And in the meantime, you know, maybe ten percent of the bean crop goes to that, to biodiesel whereas in corn 30 percent of the crop or 33 percent of the crop goes to ethanol. I think that when I look at the bean market, the markets are so tough this year. One because there is some bearish fundamentals and it seems like on the beans as opposed to corn and wheat that the fundamentals are stacking up so negative and we're so front-end loaded with Chinese buying and people forget that China is buying aggressively new crop 2010-2011 already. They bought 220,000 million bushels today and now you look at the market and the July contract is, it's like it's sitting on a fence. From $9.30 to $9.39 is support for that contract. If we tip over this next week in that then the market could slide on down and we could see the May contract get down to $9.00, possibly $8.80, $8.88, something like that and the July contract, of course, then comes down also. When I look at the quarterly charts on soybeans we've got two inside quarters going back to back and that means this market is getting ready to go down and the inside quarter we're right on a trend line from 2006 lows of April I think it is, April or the fall, one or the other of 2006 lows on the quarterly charts. And the beans look to me like they're going to take that out to the down side. So, but yet it's possible -- you've got to say, okay, here we are in March, mid-March and if we're bearish into fall, into October that's a long time. Bean prices go to $7.00, $6.54, $6.60, that's a long time and the way beans move you could be there in nothing flat. So, it appears to me that we need to somewhere along the way have a little bit of an uptick in this market to kill time. And I had originally thought it would be April into May but because we're sitting on this fence it may be that the beans fall down into April then turn up into May. No matter what, whether we rally into April or go down into April I look for May to be a rally month. And then you'll fall back over and fall away. I'm very negative for the year but we need to see something. Weather is the only thing I can think of that changes this process of a bear market.

Pearson: Will this be a classic year, do you think? Or we'll set a harvest low in soybeans?

Martin: Well, I'm wondering -- I either see an early September -- excuse me, I either see an August low or an October low this year in beans. It could be one or the other and it depends on how we play our hand here in the next month. But I think that we're looking at some very vulnerable times. I'm very concerned because there are some huge gaps on the electronic soybeans from about $7.20 down to $6.54 and that is November beans. December corn has a huge gap from $2.33 to $1.95. I think I've talked about these before. And on the wheat from I think the lowest number is $2.94, maybe from $3.54, $3.30, something like that down to $2.94. And then the meal has one that goes all the way down to $1.87. Soybean oil had one but closed it in December 5th of 2008 when we were in so negative times. So, I look at what's happening. Now there's one thing that could help us in this bean market and it's the earthquakes in Chile, the fish meal production is going to be way down because of all the disruption of the kelp roots and the Chile fish stress easy and so the fishing is not going to be good, loss of fishing boats, processing plants and Chile is a major producer of that. So, a good interrelated market or a good fill-in market for that would be soybeans.

Pearson: All right, as usual, Sue, some interesting insights. We appreciate it very much. Sue Martin joining us this week on Market to Market and, of course, right here on Market Plus. And from all of us here on Market to Market, reminding you it's PBS fundraising so if you appreciate these kinds of programs it's your chance to make an investment and let your voice be heard. From all of us here on Market to Market, I'm Mark Pearson. I'll be gone next week, we'll see you the week after. Have a great one everybody.

 


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