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Market Plus: Jan 08, 2010: Don Roose

posted on January 8, 2010

Market Plus: Jan 08, 2010: Don Roose Pearson: This is the Friday, January 8, 2010 version of Market Plus. We're glad you've joined us here at our Market to Market Web site. I'm Mark Pearson. With us this week one of our regular market analysts, Don Roose. Don, good to have you on the show tonight and good to visit with you now. I wanted to pick up with our discussion about soybeans. You're not exactly friendly to soybean prices going forward. Everything coming out of South America seems to buttress that. What is your take on this big crop down there?

Roose: Well, there's a big crop there and we're going to find out on Tuesday if we have a big crop here, bigger than we even think. So, I think structurally the soybeans have a real potential problem where we could end up with too big a supply here in the U.S. as demand starts to falter the second half of the year from the Chinese export business. At the same time we're going to run into what looks like right now -- of course, things can change -- but a very large crop out of Brazil and Argentina. Remember, they have had back to back droughts so we really haven't been challenged since 2007.

Pearson: With that in mind you also mentioned and I think one of the things that would generally push the bean market all foul was this huge demand from China.

Roose: Yeah, that's right. The Chinese, every time you think that they were going to slow down here they came and went more aggressive again. But I think when you look at it a lot of their purchases are just that, they are export sales, they are purchases and those sales can be cancelled and we've seen it before so you have to be careful if they start purchasing aggressively from South America and typically that's what they do as you look at the second half of January, they get very aggressive and switch their purchases to South America versus the U.S.

Pearson: That's bad news for U.S. producers.

Roose: Yeah, it most definitely is and, of course, weather is the great equalizer and we can still have problems in South America but the early harvest out of Madagraso, the far northern regions, the yields there are excellent. We're in the pod filling stage in central Brazil and we're still planting in southern Brazil so it just tells you the length and the amount of soybeans that are coming at us eventually.

Pearson: So, big crops on South America but what about domestic usage? Are we seeing domestic usage picking up some as the economy improves and increased demand for soy inputs?

Roose: Well, our domestic consumption has been very strong from a meal standpoint but I think we know how the biodiesel situation is. We've probably had 20% of the plants, 20% to 30% of the plants running before we had a problem with the blender's credits not being approved, you know, the $1.00 a gallon. So, that is another issue and basically all the biodiesel plants are going to be shelved until that gets changed.

Pearson: So, give me your price primers, Don. What do you think we're going to see for soybeans this year?

Roose: Well, I think soybeans, new crop soybeans I think you're looking at the highs right now without weather problems in the spring which we could have so you always have to be very careful. But $10.00 to $10.50 on November beans probably the top side. But I think you can start to imagine if these big supplies come at us both in South America and in the U.S. we think the down side is probably $8.00 on November beans.

Pearson: Don Roose, as usual we appreciate your insights. We're glad you have joined us here on Market to Market this week and, of course, right here on Market Plus. Thank all of you for joining us as well. We hope the New Year finds you in great shape. From all of us on Market to Market, I'm Mark Pearson. Have a great week.

Tags: agriculture commodity prices markets news