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Market Plus: Sep 04, 2009: Don Roose, Market Analyst

posted on September 4, 2009

Market Plus: Sep 04, 2009: Don Roose, Market Analyst Pearson: Welcome to the Friday, September 4, 2009 version of Market Plus, we're glad you've joined us here at our Market to Market Web site. With us one of our newer market analysts and regular market analysts, Don Roose. Don, good to have you with us today. We covered a lot of ground on our market segment. A couple of things I wanted to key in on with you in Market Plus. Number one, Farm Progress Show this week, I talked to thousands of farmers and their big question is, is this thing going to bottom early or as late as it is, is it going to bottom late? I talked to a guy who farms 12,000 acres between Lafayette, Indiana and Champaign and he's not going to start even getting the combine out of the shed until the first of October because they are that far behind over there and he still expects a high moisture corn situation. So, a lot of people are wondering if that's the case, if we are late will we see that harvest pressure really start to hit maybe mid-October, first couple of weeks of November? What are your thoughts on corn and beans and a harvest low?

Roose: Well, soybeans I think are probably going to have some kind of a typical seasonal low and that is the first week in October because it seems like the soybean harvest while it strung out a bit it comes and goes quicker than you think and gets tucked away. So, I think soybeans that is what I would say. When you look at the corn market I think it's a little bit different. We can look at some analog years like 1994, that was a big crop year and basically we reach a level to the down side where the market just kind of sits and then you work on trying to tuck the crop away and with a big crop it's probably going to take a while, the harvest is going to be strung out, probably some wet corn and so that's probably going to be true this year. Your lows could be, I would say again in that mid-November, early December timeframe.

Pearson: A little bit later but not a whole lot and who knows, obviously if a frost hits we could be looking at the lows now as far as that goes. But just as a general thought for producers out there trying to make those decisions which is a big issues in 2009 particularly the producers who are maybe not looking at a bin busting crop, are a little frustrated at what price direction it's been but looking at these numbers all week, Informa, Allendale, several others who came out with numbers it's pointing towards a big one and people get mad because we keep talking about it in the media but it's unavoidable. And, like you say, years where we have big crops, your analog years they give us a little bit of an indication don't they?

Roose: They do and I think we have to really, from my standpoint, I think this year very concerned that we could jump to some new big yields again that we haven't seen before that could really shock and you and surprise you. We did that in 2004 and I think the crop ratings, the uniformity of this crop if we don't end the growing season early I think that's a real concern and we've taken away the frost card week by week now so that just doesn't have the weight that it did.

Pearson: And the forecasts we've seen have kind of backed you up on all that too. So, hopefully that won't be the case. I think every producer would much rather have the big crop, the lower price than dealing with a frost situation and the impact that could have. Our other sector I wanted you to talk about is the livestock side of this thing. Same thing there, you've have the Secretary of Agriculture now convening emergency meetings trying to come up with ways to improve the opportunities for pork producers specifically to hang on during this down swing and a lot of producers that I've talked to in the hog business are saying, yes, this is a down swing but now what it was in '98 but this one has been so chronic for so long that it's just about as intense. What are your thoughts on the hogs and hog prices? You talked about it on the show. What do you think is going to happen from here on out? You mentioned on the show that the sow slaughter finally starting to increase year over year.

Roose: Yes, we're starting to increase and this marketing cycle may be different because in '98 we were just still forcing people out. I think what we're doing now, we're starting to do with the integration that we all have and were all involved in to a certain degree is we're going to liquidate on a slower mold, not that heavy, fast liquidation, it may take a little bit longer, it may be a little bit more painful for a longer timeframe but ultimately it's probably going to keep our supply demand balance in better check so when we do bottom out we don't have to race after the demand so quickly.

Pearson: Same kind of thing happening in the dairy sector too? When you look at the dairy world and look at what's happening in hogs and that lack of profitability, we quote this class 3 milk price and that thing just looks like almost an avalanche of excess supplies, same thing there as we liquidate this cow herd, this dairy herd out there?

Roose: Yes, I think it's the same type of thing that we liquidate slower. We had some of the dairy buyout programs go and I think that is the same type of thing, it's the slower, longer, more painful situation but it may be one that you get the supply demand balance table right so that we don't have these race up, race down type of markets and so it may ultimately lead to more stability down the road.

Pearson: Don Roose, appreciate you joining us, one of our regular market analysts on Market to Market, joining us on the program and here on Market Plus. From all of us here on Market to Market, I'm Mark Pearson. Have a great Labor Day weekend.

Tags: agriculture commodity prices markets news