Iowa Public Television


Market Plus: Jun 19, 2009: Jamey Kohake, market analyst

posted on June 19, 2009

Market Plus: Jun 19, 2009: Jamey Kohake, market analyst Pearson: Welcome to the Friday, June 19th, 2009 version of Market Plus here at our Market to Market Web site. We're glad you've joined us here at our Web site but if you'd like to catch our show live on your local public television station call that station and say, carry Market to Market, please and I bet that they will. I think you'd appreciate getting a live version. We're happy to come in with you here on the Internet and Jamey Kohake is with us this week, one of our newer analysts, a young man, always has been right on the numbers here of late so we pay close heed to what it is he tells us. Jamey, I just found out I'm going to be heading out to the National Cattlemen's Beef Association meeting the 16th of July out in Denver, talked to a lot of pork producers, talked to a bunch of dairymen at the FC Stone Conference in Chicago this week. These people are singing the blues. They're not real excited about ethanol but they're more concerned about their overall margins and what is ahead for their business. So, at the end of the show you're pretty friendly next year for cattle and hogs and maybe late fall. Am I right?

Kohake: That is right, pretty much all the meats, cattle and pork getting bullish third to fourth quarter through first quarter of next year and I think we're going to see a pick up back in the pork demand, right now it's sluggish, right now supplies are outrunning demand still but the numbers I'm seeing are by the end of June, first part of July demand is going to be back to where it was pre-flu time, disease time and that's going to help out a little bit too. The market is very oversold, it's been oversold and you get a hogs and pigs report this week, see some short covering and I think that could change the mentality a little bit and start to buy the bricks, buy some fund activity.

Pearson: I don't have the charts in front of me, Jamey, but it's like this hog market in particular we get these false starts going, we think we're finally going the right way and then we fall back. You think this could be a confirmed move?

Kohake: I don't think we're off to the races, I just think you need to start flushing some contracts out of the market this week, take their money and then call it good for a while and maybe go trade some other type of contract. What we need is to see cash get steady for two or three weeks, cutouts firm up for two or three weeks and I think you'd see the funds come out a lot of the shorts. I don't think they get long right now but at least just stabilize the market.

Pearson: Let's talk about fed cattle. The cattle on feed report was released Friday afternoon. You call it kind of bullish but really pretty much what was expected as far as the trade was concerned but that really means fewer placements.

Kohake: Yes, the placement numbers what everybody was hoping for to get bullish off of for Monday and part of the short covering on Friday's trade was based off of that and I think it did get confirmed, I think it will be firmer on Monday and also too if the grain markets pull over by the beans I think it should support the feeder and spill over into live cattle also.

Pearson: So, maybe the start of something great there. I know it's long overdue for a lot of the producers who are out there.

Kohake: That is right, still neutral to slightly bearish in front month contracts, cash looks to have come in steady last week and I don't see it doing much this week either. But you get out in October through February of next year with the feeder cattle numbers getting really, really bullish and I think any type of one or two cent break in the market come in and sell some puts and let this thing work itself out of the way for the fall.

Pearson: I want to go back to those Informa numbers. Corn acres down almost two percent, beans up close to three percent, the Informa number and, again, a private forecaster is not the USDA but they have been extremely close on their acreage numbers in the past, Informa, with what USDA comes up with not a lot of variance there so maybe these are numbers we can go to town with but the bean acreage increase and then we saw the selloff on Friday. Have we turned the tide all this bullishness in the soybean pit?

Kohake: I think we probably have for the short-term until we run into some type of heat scare or excessive rain again somewhere. I think you're going to see a lot of hedge pressure, any type of rally in the market is going to be sold into so that's going to keep a lid on everything right now. The key is going to be too these spreads next week, August versus November and July versus November and if the funds come back and trade or not but as a hedger I would be selling any type of rallies right now that I could take advantage of.

Pearson: So, you've got your marching orders, folks. Thanks for joining us here on Market Plus. Jamey Kohake is with us, great to have Jamey with us. I want to say a big thanks from all of us here on Market to Market for you joining us. I'm Mark Pearson, have a great week.

Tags: agriculture commodity prices markets news