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Market Plus: Jun 12, 2009: Analyst Sue Martin discusses the markets

posted on June 12, 2009

Market Plus: Jun 12, 2009: Analyst Sue Martin discusses the markets Pearson: This is the Friday, June 12th, 2009 version of Market Plus. We're glad you've joined us here at our Market to Market Web site. One of our regular market analysts, one of my favorites, Sue Martin is with us tonight and I had a chance to visit with Sue about what she sees ahead in the markets but I want to talk about corn and soybeans because when you're on corn and soybeans are what we like to talk about. Let's talk first about the soybean market. You're talking $13 on these old crop beans on the show and if we're there you're selling them.

Martin:That's right, I think that technically I can come up with a $13 price, $13.22 which is a wave count projection on the July but it is also very close to a 6.8% retracement for the July contract as well. But more importantly we're into a timeframe here where markets tend to culminate for a summer high and I think that we have a lot of timing hitting us this next week and I think that we're going to find a high here, maybe we break down into it and then we reverse up but if we get that chance I think people need to step up to the plate, finish up old crop sales and maybe even take some new crop. In fact, I would say get some new crops on the books. Now, when we look at the WASDE report back in January the USDA had its target at 225 million bushel carryout and at a very short time we are now at 114. And so we're into a very tight supply, basically worldwide we're about into a 70 day stocks to usage ratio or days of usage and domestically here in the U.S. about a 12 day supply so we're very tight. But we also have our exports already having met what the USDA had us targeted for and what's interesting is your traditional buyers like Mexico, the EU, South Korea and Japan still have a fair amount of beans on the books that they haven't taken yet. That have bought them but they haven't taken them yet and we have three months to go into the end of our year so some fear that we're going to see a squeeze on the July beans and that they're just going to scramble for these beans and they're just not out there to grab. I'm not sure I totally believe that. I'm wondering if we aren't already rationing to some degree with the $13 beans and maybe there's a chance that we see Brazil here instead, I think there's a potential here for the dollar to rally and in the meantime the stock market goes down, fear sets in amongst many markets. It will be interesting to see what happens if I'm right on this stock market because that plays a hand in this and if that fear sets in we get a setback in this market and we go down in July. The last two years beans have put highs in, in the month of July. Will we do it a third year? I don't know. I kind of suspect we won't and so therefore we want to really start becoming aggressive and getting sales made.

Pearson: If the stock market doesn't fall apart this week, if it continues strong based on your timing could we go beyond $13 in the soybeans?

Martin:Well, you can, I'm not going to say never in this market. This market has all the underpinnings of a wonderful bull market but when I look at quarterly data on the beans what I find is that the timing indicators that I utilize on those charts we have turned those negative. Now, that doesn't mean you can't rally the market, you can. But what I find is we are so far away from a three quarterly move in average that when I went all the way back to 1969 you've gotten so far away from that three quarterly move in average on a correction back up after a break and you turn around and you snap back to it. It can be a combination of the market trying to come higher but basically the market falls. So, I still think there's a correction coming back in this grain market. I don't see that this is a market that's just going to keep walking away. I think that we've had a lot of fundamental changes that have taken place and so I think that when you've got Brazil answering the demand in the world market now what might happen is by the time you get into harvest there's going to be a huge demand for U.S. beans and we may have an early harvest low.

Pearson: Well, let's talk about the corn market which you also alluded to and, again, fairly friendly longer term on the corn, maybe not so much for the '09-'10 crop but maybe '10-'11. How is that going to set up and what should producers be doing?

Martin:Well, I think that producers as we start to break -- I think they ought to be using rallies to sell. I had hoped that we would see a $5 ticket on corn, especially December corn of '09, so far that's not been able to happen. There's an old analog study that I went back and looked at, now there's no guarantees with analog studies but they kind of give you clues of what can happen, and in years past since 1969 I think there's maybe been nine times where the corn market, the December futures has came down and made lows in November to December and out of those nine times the July contract forward eight of them seen a test of their lows, in fact they made new lows before expiration. Well, if the market had done it sooner we had so much time to go and I'm wondering is it possible that this huge sideways range that we have been in since October 30th or so if we haven't come up, just barely tagged the January highs to get everybody bulled up only to head fake them, turn around, come back down and in the meantime we come back down and we maybe take a look at the lows. The one year that we did not make new lows for the July contract before it expired we double the low. So, is the March 2nd low on corn that low? It could be but I don't believe it. I'm a little suspect of corn. We've got demand that doesn't seem -- export demand has picked up a little bit for corn for the old crop but the new crop or the concern is that the new crop I can see good things for down the road, not on this old crop, I'm very suspicious of old crop corn and there's too much of it in the farmer's hands.

Pearson: Real quick, do you want to make a lot of new crop corn sales with the rally we've had?

Martin:I think you do, if you're a little concerned about it as a producer then buy some $4.20 puts, $4.20, $4.10 puts and maybe get yourself floored, at least do something because we certainly could see a break in this corn market that could take us right back down and interestingly enough we have had highs on corn the last two years in the month of June, here we are a third year and not higher highs per say but highs for that contract I suppose and so are we going to go on with corn into July? You don't have a weather market here yet and not a true old typical weather market where you really put the crop under the gun. I will say this, at 85 million acres where you were back at the end of March and if you lose two million now you're down to 83 but the one thing we're missing here and we won't know until we get into harvest is the fact that the inputs, farmers cut back on inputs this year and next year I think they'll go full bore but this year they cut back, that's going to cut yields I think and we're not under the most ideal conditions. And we have a fall this year, will it be like last year where it extends out, no frost scares? I wouldn't put my hat on it.

Pearson: Good points, Sue, as usual. Great insights, always great to have you with us. Sue Martin is with us here on Market Plus and, of course, with us on Market to Market. If you enjoy Market Plus on the Internet make sure you contact your local public television station, call the program director and say we'd like to watch the show live each week. So, make sure you make that telephone call. From all of us here on Market to Market and for Sue Martin, I'm Mark Pearson. Have a great week.

Tags: agriculture commodity prices markets news