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Market Plus: Nov 07, 2008: Sue Martin, Market Analyst

posted on November 7, 2008


Market Plus: Nov 07, 2008: Sue Martin, Market Analyst Pearson: This is the Friday, November 7th, 2008 version of Market Plus. Thanks for joining us here at our Market to Market Web site. Make sure you tell your friends and neighbors to stop by here too. With us this week one of our regular market analysts, Sue Martin. Sue, it's been a wild year. It's been a wild year in commodities, equities, capital markets, you name it, it's been a wild one, one that has kind of weighed on the market outlook for protein, the price of hogs, we had some big numbers and big liquidation occurred up in Canada and yet hogs kind of hung in there and now we're kind of going into what you called on the show more of a traditional type low this fall.

Martin: I do and normally that low would be around the 10th, 11th of November. And I think that when we look at this hog market the hog market is one bright spot for the cattle market because pork is so inexpensive and exports are picking back up a little bit on pork but also another situation that we've got going is with Canada doing liquidation that they've done and we've had some big numbers no doubt by ourselves and we look at next year as being a contraction year of numbers so down the road we think there is some optimism here for the pork market. I think that the hog market is pretty much close to its lows. In the meantime, once we get that low stabilized or initialized that should be supportive to beef as well. So, I think there's some potential in the hog market industry. At this time if I was hedging hogs I'd be doing it via put options only.

Pearson: Good point. November 12th USDA's crop report is coming out. Obviously people were concerned about the correction in the October report. I think that caused a lot of concern out in the countryside. We saw the huge selloff on October, we had all the other things going on as well and then USDA threw that in. Are you going to feel pretty confident about this November report?

Martin: Well, I think so. I think that now that we've had all these revisions I think everybody is going to start to say okay, the USDA stepped up to the plate and fessed up that they had a mistake and so they're going to feel a little more comfortable. In this report I would suspect that the potential is there in corn that we could lose more harvested acres yet out of this report. As far as feed, industrial and exports, that usage I think the USDA already targeted that, they dropped it by 50 million each and so I think that therefore our ending result or our carryout drops because we have less harvested acres. Yield I don't know. I had thought that the yield would probably stay right around that 153 to 153.5. The USDA in that last report the revision was at 153.9, Informa was at 153.9. Maybe we do stay there and it's just an acreage reduction that we get. But we are hearing some in the tail end of the harvest at the last half that maybe yields aren't as good as what we were hearing all along in the first half. So, we may find that there is a little bit of a disappointment in some of this crop yet before it's done but I certainly think the harvested acres could be reduced.

Pearson: So, with that in mind, again, you're fairly friendly once we get through this final quarter of 2008 for corn and beans.

Martin: Absolutely. I think that you have to look at the whole year as a whole, where we started from $7.99 and three quarters down. Now, if we hadn't have had all of this outside economical situation going on that also included the world then I think we could have still seen a break like this and everybody wouldn't be so panicked. You go back and look at 1973 and you got beans up to $12.90 and it dropped $6.60. Is that any different than now? You look at 1996 and when corn went to that $5.55 or $5.54 and a half area and it fell all the way back. It may take longer than just one year. The break that we have had in corn has been phenomenal and, of course, we know our input costs are high but they have come down some if the place that you're buying them at is willing to reduce a little bit and they may not. If they have paid up a high price for stuff they may charge you a high price, depends on where you go. But in the meantime I think that all this outside market information that has been hitting us on the economy and taking in global and housing and everything else has really sent everybody just running scared and they keep talking about we're in recession but what do they keep comparing us to -- 1929 which was a depression, not a recession. And I keep thinking why are we not comparing to maybe other recessions that might have been comparable, not 1929. It bothers me that they keep going to 1929 yet on the flip side maybe that is what keeps us away from going to a 1929 because they do keep comparing to it and they try to do everything in their power to stop us from going to something like that and all of a sudden then you have the flip side and you've got inflation.

Pearson: Interesting here in 2009 too. Sue, as usual, some great insights, we appreciate it. Sue Martin our guest this week on Market to Market and of course right here on Market Plus. From all of us here on Market to Market, I'm Mark Pearson. Have a great week.


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