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Market Plus: Sep 12, 2008: Jamey Kohake, market analyst

posted on September 12, 2008

Market Plus: Sep 12, 2008: Jamey Kohake, market analyst Pearson: Let's talk about the corn market. As we look at what corn prices have done obviously the $8 corn was a blip on the screen. It came, it went along with every other commodity we've been getting softer ever since. The real fundamentals, as you point out, is we need to buy more acres for 2009, substantially more, in the 95 million acre range and we've looked at break evens, we talked to a lot of producers around the state and around the country who tell us $4.60, $5.00 you're going to be looking at break evens next year with fertilizer, nitrogen products and seed costs, the way they've gone. Do we need to be looking at 2009? Do we need to be more aggressive out there in getting some profits locked in?

Kohake: I would not be locking profits off the Dec. '09 board yet right now. I think that could turn back to $6.20, $6.40 easy in here buying acres and maybe even higher through the winter months. I think it's probably range bound right now and we need to get confirmation of some early yields and then build off of that. The stocks to usage have tightened since '03. We need roughly 94 to 96 million acres with demand right now compared to next year being the same. So, I think we will be buying acres. The key will be can we just get some fresh news and spur some money back in and get its enthusiasm back in and pop it real quick.

Pearson: One piece of news that has been positive is the whole renewable fuels standard, if something happens to ethanol. There's certainly a negative floating out there with the percentage of our crop that is now being used for biofuels, that could be a setback. On the positive side obviously early frost people are saying this crop is seven to ten days behind so there's still a frost worry out there, maybe that could be a catalyst but you think it might be just bigger than that, it might just be export demand continuing to be this strong?

Kohake: Export demand being strong and also I think confirmation as to actual yields being below 152 now which we saw today and 40 in the beans, get some confirmation on that or this hurricane spillover moving up north and get some delays based off of that. I think the dollar will be supported if we get back lower and exports rally but more of it on the outside market. There is a new weather report out this morning a frost scare for September 18th and 19th but I think it's too far north, pretty much where it was the last week with the same weather report.

Pearson: They're being watched closely so who knows what could be out there. But you're saying let's not get in a hurry to sell '09, let's look for something around the $6.25 level to start making some sales if we do.

Kohake: At least, I would start there and maybe scale on out but I think at least $6.25.

Pearson: We can't talk about corn and not talk about beans, same thing?

Kohake: Yeah, hold off on bean sales. I think we'll be in some type of spillover mode from the corn and the beans and even buying acres there. If crude would bounce the beans would rally with it. I think the fund money is more apt to come in and buy beans sharply and faster than corn right now. I think there's a lot more nervousness in beans with news across the nation that the beans aren't there, they're late and they're short and everything else there and the first hiccup you have or confirmation of yields of 27 or something crazy it's going to pop quick.

Pearson: Absolutely. As you say being tied to energy now who knows, it could be a run, it could be who knows what. Well, as usual some great insights. Jamey, appreciate you being with us. Jamey Kohake with us this week on Market to Market and right here on Market Plus. For all of us on Market to Market, I'm Mark Pearson saying thanks for joining us here at Market Plus and have a great week.

Tags: agriculture commodity prices markets news