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Market Plus: Aug 29, 2008: John Roach, Senior Market Analyst

posted on August 29, 2008

Market Plus: Aug 29, 2008: John Roach, Senior Market Analyst Pearson: Welcome to the Friday, August 29th, 2008 version of Market Plus. We're glad you've joined us here at our Market to Market Web site and hope you tell your friends and neighbors they can join us here too. With us this week celebrating 30 years as a guest analyst on Market to Market, a tremendous career, John Roach, our senior market analyst. First of all, congratulations on 30 years, John. We had a good time on the show showing your various styles for the last 30 years. I'm just a kid, I've only been doing this for 18 so it's great to see back in the beginning in the mid-70s you and Chet Randolph when this thing got started. Let's talk about where we are now. What a different world we're in now compared to those days with these tremendous demand driven markets, people are so concerned about input costs, they've got to do a better job marketing, we've got to do a better job making sales because it's going to take $4 on corn, $9 on beans to make it work next year and a lot of people are concerned about missing the highs this summer and what do they do now. They're starting to say, oh my gosh, I've missed it and they're getting a little concerned, panicked.

Roach: Well, I think they have a reason to be concerned. If they missed the highs this summer, if they didn't get enough bushels sold they really should re-examine what they were looking at and what they were listening to and why didn't they get it done and make sure you don't make those same mistakes over again, get rid of people who are influencing you the wrong way, that's I think probably the first thing to think about. But from a standpoint of what we have out forward I'm not as worried as I hear some are about what we have in store for 2009. A year from now we may well have some very cheap prices if we have good growing conditions. But I think between now and then I think we'll have great opportunities to make sales during that March, April, May, June timeframe. Again, this year it worked, it did the year before, it was better if you had made it a little heavier on the June sales than you did the March sales. I think in 2009 the March sales might be better than the June. And so we're gearing ourselves up to be making fairly aggressive sales in the late winter, early spring of 2009. But I think what I would like to leave listeners with is I'd like to encourage you about the potentials for this next year. I'm not discouraged, I'm not worried about these high costs of production. I believe we're going to have a very strong market through the winter and early spring until we see what Mother Nature is going to give us for weather.

Pearson: Are we going right back to an acreage battle, John, as soon as this crop gets put in the bin?

Roach: I think we're in an acreage battle right now. I think there's going to be wheat producers that will not plant wheat, that they'll instead take a look at some of the other grains. There's cotton producers that have decided we're just not going to plant cotton, we're going to go over to grains. But I think we're in a continual battle from now until we can see some relief in these tight supplies. And we're going to have to have very, very big yields next year in order to get relief from these tight supplies.

Pearson: Again, you've always been really good about choosing marketing times, seasons throughout the year which historically have been the best times to make sales and that's when you've been encouraging people to make sales. And this year it looked like that peaked about the first part of July.

Roach: In fact, it was just before the 4th of July and that is a rather typical time for a market to peak. And so as we look forward this next year you could go out and order your 2009 calendar and on the 4th of July for 2009 you want to put an entry in there of do I have all my sales made because that's when most of the sales need to be completed if they haven't been already.

Pearson: As usual, John Roach, we appreciate 30 years with Market to Market, thank you for that, look forward to even more in the years ahead. John Roach with us this week on Market to Market and, of course, here on Market Plus. And from all of us here on Market to Market, I'm Mark Pearson. Have a great week.

Tags: agriculture commodity prices markets news