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Market Plus: Jul 25, 2008: Darin Newsom

posted on July 25, 2008

Market Plus: Jul 25, 2008: Darin Newsom Pearson: This is the Friday, July 25th, 2008 version of Market Plus. We're glad you've joined us here at our Market to Market Web site. With us this week is one of our regular market analysts, Darin Newsom. Darin, it's been a big sell off here. I don't care what commodity you're talking about in the last five business days it's been down. The lone exception we mentioned was cotton. Everything else is under a lot of pressure. The cattle market, cash cattle market fell apart, corn and bean markets down dramatically, pressure on wheat. We talked the beginning of the show of whether or not we popped the bubble and you said, of course, we'll never know that until it's in the rearview mirror but obviously we're showing some stresses and strains and some signs of it. Take us through corn and beans. A lot of producers out there very nervous about this crop that's pretty far behind.

Newsom: They are and they have every right to be because, again, we've been behind from the very beginning. And it hasn't gotten any better. We've been able to make it through most of the summer because we've had relatively favorable weather. We haven't had the hot June, hot July and who knows what August is going to bring. So, there is a reason for concern for most of the producers. Now, the market is looking at this and producers are saying the market has come down $2.50 in Dec. corn, it's collapsing in the soybeans. If we still have all these issues in front of us how come? What's going on? Well, it has to do with what you're talking about, has the commodity bubble burst. There seems to be a flow of money out of commodities right now and we can look across the board from energies to metals as you said to livestock to softs and the grains. They all seem to be coming under pressure at the same point as money is coming out of the market. At some point what we're going to realize is it's gone too far as markets overreact and two we are going to have to deal with the issues of the crop. How big is it? What is the actual yield going to be? How much damage was actually done by the lateness of the crop combined with the floods over the Midwest? These issues will come into play as the combines begin to roll and that could start to bring some support back into the market, it could start to bring some buying, some of the interest from the money back into this market as well.

Pearson: So, maybe everybody is getting too far to one side of the boat right now?

Newsom: It seems to be and we get these wild swings. We ran corn up to almost $8 in the Dec. corn as the floods were hitting its peak. And so some would say that might have been a bit overdone as well. So, again, it collapses back. They do rush from one side of the boat back to the next and hopefully at some point here when the combines begin to roll maybe they'll find a place in the middle to stop and take a look at the screen and see what the markets are actually doing.

Pearson: As I look at what's been done in terms of producers and producers have gotten very conservative on marketing this 2008 crop for that reason, particularly the soybeans, in many cases we saw a lot of beans that were planted in the middle of June and the first week of July and talked to a buddy of mine who was on a sprayer who just planted some beans about the second, almost the 15th, 16th of July. So, there's some people out there playing roulette with the soybean crop.

Newsom: They really are because no matter what signal you look at there is every possibility that we're going to see an early freeze and this could certainly be problematic for those who have decided to go ahead and replant. So, as we talked about there is a lot of issues, maybe even more so in beans than we're seeing in corn and that is going to come back into play and it's going to affect the fundamentals of the market and those will -- in the end these are going to help rule and possibly decide where this market is able to go over the last quarter of the year.

Pearson: Every chart, every graph that I see shows that global wheat demand is outpacing global wheat production. I don't know when that's going to turn, it certainly didn't turn in 2008 and obviously we've had production problems. Finally we've got a good crop going in the U.S. and some good crops going elsewhere around the world. So, are we starting to catch up? Should wheat producers start looking at the '09 and '10 crop for making sales?

Newsom: They could because, again, as you said we're starting to see some improvements worldwide but I think we're still going to be coming in, when all is said and done, I think we're still going to be coming in with some short numbers and the market tends to rally in the fall and the winter so I think we're going to have some better opportunities. We've come down a long ways in this wheat market. Yes, there is a risk this market could collapse further if we do see a meltdown in commodities. So, that is a risk. But if the market acts as it normally does and we've come down and established some sort of floor in here we may be able to get this fall/winter bounce, start to get some '09 put on the books, start to see what some of the acreage issues might be not only in the U.S. but worldwide and maybe have some better opportunities.

Pearson: Alright, well Darin we're going to leave it right there. Thank you so much for being with us this week on Market Plus. From all of us here on Market to Market, I'm Mark Pearson. Thanks for being with us. Darin Newsom, thanks to you. I'll join you again next week.

Tags: agriculture commodity prices markets news