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Market Plus: Jan 25, 2008: Erin Golly and Virgil Robinson

posted on January 25, 2008

Market Plus: Jan 25, 2008: Erin Golly and Virgil Robinson Pearson: Welcome to the Friday, January 25th, 2008 version of market plus right here at our Market to Market Web site. Thank you for joining us as thousands of your friends and neighbors have for this portion. With us this week is Virgil Robinson and Erin Golly. And Erin, we're going to start with you because you gave a big tease at the end of the show about how we're going to get through this high corn price coupled with low hog prices. And people are frustrated out there. What do you tell them?

Golly: What I've been telling them, and I'll conclude from the show, is that one year ago today the transportation around the country was very concerned and in a panic mode. We had $50 crude oil and there was projections of it going to $100. The truckers were in panic, we didn't know what we were going to do, talk of recession with those high crude prices. But look at it where it is one year from then. We have $90 crude, $3 gas and the trucking industry has adapted to it. But it just takes time. They have adjusted to that higher input cost but it takes the time for producers to go through it and that's what I'm trying to tell them. You know, it'll take some time but the market will give it to you.

Pearson: Alright, so at this stage of the game you mentioned liquidation in Canada because they've got some processing issues up there too along with high priced inputs. So, as we look -- let's look further on down the road through the balance of 2008 into 2009. Where do you see hog prices going?

Golly: Depending on corn, of course, I think the futures have a very good chance of rallying to 90 cent or a dollar some time later this summer but that's got to be corn led. You know, corn prices are going to have to rally substantially higher in order for the hog futures to do that. Barring that I do think that we're going to have very good demand for meat, once we get into '09 I think we're going to have a global shortage of proteins going forward, barring any global meltdown, of course, but I think there is going to be a shortage of meat going forward.

Pearson: Okay, and that is going to certainly be reflected in price and that may be where these guys get some of their money back.

Golly: Hopefully so.

Pearson: That's exactly right. Virgil Robinson, a real quick comment from you on we talked about the wheat sector, the corn sector, the bean sector, strong markets across the board. And really doesn't look like there's much of an end in sight. But you mentioned your concern about a couple of things you're watching that might give us an idea maybe a pullback or maybe a little bit of a shift in the firmness.

Robinson: Well, there are two things that we can all watch, Mark, they're very visible. Some of the things we talked about in terms of rationing and the underpinnings of the demand element of the market pretty hard to track on a routine basis. But, again, as mentioned earlier the market is in kind of a defensive mode particularly soybeans and soybean meal, at least as I view it. And I'm watching the futures markets closely here for some indication of a turn from what has been a wildly bullish ride to something less than that. And as mentioned earlier that $12.30 mark in the lead soybean futures contract and $3.30 in the lead soybean meal futures contracts are real pivot points in my mind. Closes below there this Thursday suggests to me there is some problems brewing. So, be advised for those of us who have been wildly bullish, haven't always been included in that camp, Mark, those are two things at least we can watch visibly here.

Pearson: Alright, two excellent points. Erin, thank you. Virgil, thank you. Thank all of you for joining us here at market plus at our Web site. Tell your friends and neighbors to join us here too. From all of us here on Market to Market, I'm Mark Pearson. Have a great week.

Tags: agriculture commodity prices markets news