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Market Plus: Nov 30, 2007: Market Analyst Tomm Pfitzenmaier

posted on November 30, 2007

Market Plus: Nov 30, 2007: Market Analyst Tomm Pfitzenmaier Pearson: This is our Friday, November 30th, 2007 version of market plus. I'm Mark Pearson with Tomm Pfitzenmaier on today's show. Tomm, thanks so much for being with us. And, of course, welcome everybody to our Market to Market Web site. Tomm, we talked about some pretty big issues, cheap dollar, exports, what's happening overseas, what's ahead. Let's talk some strategies, corn and beans, wheat, what people can be doing right now maybe to start locking in some of these very strong prices. You know, we're into this thing where we're at a new plateau. I've been at new plateaus a lot in agriculture and you have too. They typically don't last. What should we be doing right now?

Pfitzenmaier: Well, in terms of old crop corn we've seen some fairly good basis improvement going into the end of the year, as I said on the show, because the farmers have been fairly stingy with corn. I think after the first of the year you're going to start to see some of that corn move and you could very easily see that basis widen back out. So, I guess I would try to do something to start moving some corn here over the next two or three weeks to take advantage of that. Now, if you're nervous that you're selling corn and you have this pie in the sky price objective for the summer go in and buy yourself a July call, May call, March call, whatever you think is going to work, buy a bull call spread if you don't want to spend a lot of money on it to re-own it. But these are good prices that should be taken advantage of on the cash side. As far as new crop '08 corn goes there's some really good strategies. We've been buying $4 puts, selling $5 calls to pay for them to get a $4 floor in and a $5 ceiling. If you're afraid the $5 ceiling is too low don't do that, wait for a rally to do it or don't do it at all and just buy yourself a put. But I think you need to do something to take advantage of some of this because people have got some pretty high inputs going into this crop, they've got some high cash rents to cover and all that is predicated on these prices. So, as long as the prices are here a guy needs to be taking advantage of them and getting them covered because if you get all those expenses locked in and then the price for some reason falls apart it's not going to be a pretty year next year.

Pearson: Absolutely, alright, so the corn and soybeans, same thing?

Pfitzenmaier: Same thing on beans. A lot of people have been making bean sales simply because the price of beans has been pretty darn good and I think you need to continue to do that. You get $10, $10.25, whatever you've been getting for beans I think you just need to keep rewarding the market as these rallies come along. Now, again, if you're afraid that we're going to $15 or $16 or $20 or whatever your up side potential idea is then buy yourself a call, buy yourself a bull call spread, buy something to re-own it. I'm not saying re-own the futures because then you've just changed positions. You need to buy something that gives a potential but keeps the cycle made. As far as new crop beans go you can, same sort of strategy. You can buy $10 puts, $10.20 puts, sell $12.40 calls to pay for them, that's a huge high ceiling $2 above where we're at, it gives you a really nice range with a real good floor and then just sit and see what happens.

Pearson: Yeah, $10 beans, $7 wheat, $4 plus corn, I think we're going to look back and say these were the good old days.

Pfitzenmaier: Right, you need to get these covered in because like you said the margins on all this is probably going to go back to what historically we tend to have and if you haven't captured those prices and we do, I mean, we kind of alluded to it at the end of the show, you have to assume normality. We're going into this year with full subsoil moisture which, in my opinion, grows half a crop. So, if we get any rains at all through the summer we've got good crop producing potential. You know, maybe so what if it was dry in Georgia, if that moves up here and that creates a problem then we'll react to that at the time. But in the meantime you have to assume normality and get some sales made.

Pearson: Good points as usual, Tomm Pfitzenmaier, thanks for being with us here for our market plus segment. And thank all of you for joining us here at our Market to Market Web site. Make sure you tell your friends and neighbors. And from all of us here on Market to Market, I'm Mark Pearson. Have a great week.

Tags: agriculture commodity prices markets news