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Market Plus: Jun 22, 2007: Tomm Pfitzenmaier, Summit Commodities

posted on June 22, 2007


Market Plus: Jun 22, 2007: Tomm Pfitzenmaier, Summit Commodities Pearson: This is the Friday, June 22nd, 2007 version of our market plus commentary here on Market to Market. We're glad you've joined us. With us this week one of our senior market analysts, Tomm Pfitzenmaier. And Tomm, whoa, it's been a run. You and all the other analysts talked about it and we talked about it on the show, it's going to be a volatile year, a 51 cent move down in corn this week, record highs the week before, you know, pull back after the acreage report last March, we've got another acreage report coming up and still I've heard from a lot of producers who really haven't done much to protect themselves one way or the other on both corn and soybeans. So, what are you telling them? They call you up, what do you say?

Pfitzenmaier: Here is the deal on old crop corn, you're walking a fine line here especially on basis because if we go ahead and have a good crop then the basis is going to fall apart, net price is going to drop and you're really going to take a beating for holding that old crop corn. If, on the other hand, we do have some sort of a problem creep up and the basis is probably going to narrow up, the front end is going to lead you. So, that is the dice roll you're rolling for here. I guess it looks to me like with the moisture we've got we're probably going to have a decent corn crop, may not be huge, may not be excessive but it's probably going to be decent. And as soon as those processors and end users decide that they've got enough corn bought to make it to that new crop the whole thing is going to fall apart on you. So, I don't know that I'd horse around too long here on getting some old crop corn, getting that old crop corn that you need to move moved. As far as new crop corn goes you know as well as I, I've been a long-time advocate and options are a really good alternative when there is a lot of upside potential. When you're at two bucks, $2.50 there is a lot of up side potential and you want to leave that top open. But when you're at $4, $4.25 is there really all that much up side potential? I think especially with options costing 20, 30, 40 cents by the time you take that off and you take a little gap off for basis and you aren't locking all that much in, I think with these kind of high prices you just flat step out and get some stuff sold. You know, a year ago we were having big discussions about should I price corn at $2.30 and how big an LDP should I take and actually having meetings talking about that and now we're having discussions about should I sell corn at $4 or not for heaven sakes. Yes, you should, $4 is a good price for corn.

Pearson: $8 is a pretty good price for soybeans, Tomm, so what is your take on soybeans? I think the situation there is scarier yet, isn't it, on old crop especially?

Pfitzenmaier: Yeah, old crop, everybody is sitting around here waiting to sell because the basis is lousy. Hello, the basis is going to stay lousy, we've got 615 million bushel of beans sitting around until new crop comes in. It's going to stay terrible. There is no reason for the end users to pay up to get their hands on beans. So, if you're going to need space and you don't have the storage you're going to have to wait for little price rallies and sell it and suck it up and say the basis is lousy, I wish I could have gotten more but I couldn't. That is going to be your alternative it seems to me on beans. Now, if you can store them maybe you can wait so that that 320 carry out next year is probably going to tighten the basis up. Uncertainty over whether South America is going to plant and how much they're going to plant may tighten our basis up. So, if you've got the ability to hold old crop beans into, you know, December, November, December, January then that's probably your best alternative. If you don't, you get above $8 you need to make some sales.

Pearson: Alright, some good common sense wisdom. You mentioned the 4th of July, that time period is always critical to this market, almost you've got to see what the temperature is going to be for the balance of the season.

Pfitzenmaier: Look what happened this year, in February, late February we put in the high anticipating planting problems way before anything got planted and we could very well have done here the same thing where we put the high in way before we ever had corn pollination and, you know, all the concern that goes along with that. We tend to anticipate these problems way before they ever come along.

Pearson: Some good points as usual, Tomm Pfitzenmaier with us tonight for market plus. That you for being with us as well. From all of us here on Market to Market have a great week.


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