Iowa Public Television


Market Plus: Jun 08, 2007: Sue Martin

posted on June 8, 2007

Market Plus: Jun 08, 2007: Sue Martin Pearson: This is the Friday, June 8th, 2007 version of market plus here at our Market to Market Website. Mark Pearson along with Sue Martin this week. Boy, lots of stuff to go through, Sue. Let's talk a little bit about -- let's talk about corn and soybeans, we talked about wheat a lot in the show and you kind of see that being a stair step deal through October maybe for wheat prices. Corn and soybeans this could be a real interesting summer. Obviously this is going to be the biggest pollination season in our lifetimes.

Martin: I think it is. I think it's such a critical time because we just can't afford to have any issues. And, you know, you look in the southeast, even like in Kentucky and Tennessee and I've got clients telling me that their corn is, you know, some of it is starting to tassel but it's also very, very stressed, world extremely stressed by the end of the day, you know, soybeans starting to wither, you know, so I think there is issues out there and, you know, we just can't afford to have reductions in this crop, we have to have -- one, it was so important we had every acre we could get. Two, we have to have it in order to carry this market forward because demand is just going to continue to increase each year. And so as we go next year we don't have a carry out coming in that's very aggressive so if we have any issues this year why we're looking at some serious issues for next year and a more adamant demand for acres.

Pearson: Alright, you had mentioned the low was in on corn some time ago. And you think that happened in May and now a stair step in this corn market or how do you see this thing unfolding?

Martin: I think it's kind of a stair step especially here in June and then I think, you know, we get into July we might get a little dicier. One thing I think that's kind of interesting is in December corn we have never seen a contract high put in, in the month of February that stuck the whole year. So, I think that tells us that the odds are in our favor, not that things can't go awry in the world of high finance but I think it's in our favor that corn does try to push higher. I really recommend to the producer, though, if we make it in through pollination I think there's a lot of fund money that is going to shift elsewhere and look for something else to buy. I think the reason corn has been laboring, probably not because of so much bearishness to the market but because there was so much good news for wheat and good news for beans that they decided let's sell corn and they sold corn as the whipping child against their long beans and long wheat. And I think that will change and I kind of feel like we're on the edge of that changing already. So, you'll get some pullbacks, maybe Dec. corn pulls back to about $3.80, $3.75 to $3.80 and maybe it doesn't do much more. If they throw a curve at you and they try to take it down to $3.60 again, which I don't expect, but let's say they did, boy it's a gorgeous opportunity. I just feel very strong that we're headed higher in this market. And, you know, I never dreamed in years how we would, I would feel that $3.90 corn was inexpensive but I think it is.

Pearson: It's a brave new world out there, things have shifted. Alright, let's go over and talk about soybeans now, again, in the soybean market got to buy acres, you've got to get Brazil to plant, you talked about all these things. And we're not there yet price wise according to a lot of you. A year ago you said we've have $8, $8.50 beans, you said you were an $8 girl and a lot of people though, oh, now way. Here we're at $8.50 on the board. So, next you talked about it on the show, $9, what is this soybean market going to look like now for the balance of this growing season?

Martin: Well, I think that it's going to still have some changes to go higher. You know, there is Elliott Wave traders that are selling the market short right now and they paint a pretty good case for this and they think it's a major top in the market. It may be a top for now but I don't think it's a major top. On a wave one, wave two, wave three scale which is a little different than total just generic Elliott Wave a second count is $9.02. And if you look at this market and say that we have a flag formation that could project November beans up to $9.96. I don't think you go over the 2004 highs, I think we have to keep one thing in mind, we're being led by bean oil and usually bean oil is not the market that carries us aggressively. It's done a decent job this year but it's not the market, it's meal that carries this market pretty strongly and I think, you know, end users of soy meal from what I'm hearing are not protected. They keep thinking they're going to get a chance to buy that cheaper and I think meal is going higher. So, I would be booking my meal through the summer. And I think that when I look at the beans, you know, you might get a pull back into this $7.99, $8 area, you know, we got down to $8.10, $8.08, $8.06 actually today on Friday so, you know, the market can do it in snappy fashion but one thing that's going on in here too is there is a lot of, everything is becoming global and there's a lot of issues with, you know, the financial markets and people are pouring out of the stock market and they're looking for bargains to put the money into but I tell you what, this bean market is not going to be for the faint of heart. If we have a weather issue in our bean market after we're losing about 7 million acres I want to tell you, you'll have a dicey market next year and the potential with set up you could have new all-time highs in beans next year. Now, I almost hesitate to say that because everybody is going to say, oh, beans are going to new all-time highs. You've got to have the right set up for it but the potential is there.

Pearson: Alright, an explosive situation, a huge change for a producer, marketers of these products. Sue Martin, as usual you encapsulate it so well for us. Thank you so much. That will wrap up our market plus segment. Thank you for joining us and, of course, tell your friends and neighbors to join us here at our Market to Market Website each week. From all of us here on Market to Market, I'm Mark Pearson. Have a great week.

Tags: agriculture commodity prices markets news