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Market Plus: Mar 30, 2007: John Roach, Senior Market Analyst

posted on March 30, 2007

Market Plus: Mar 30, 2007: John Roach, Senior Market Analyst Pearson: Welcome to the Market Plus segment for March 30th, 2007. I'm Mark Pearson. With us this week our senior market analyst, John Roach. John, a highly anticipated report came out today. Some corn producers I'm sure are going to be a little disappointed about the fact that the corn market took a nose dive. Once the report was announced and we had shifted supposedly at this early stage of the game a little over 90 million acres into corn production, up roughly 15% from a year ago. It represents a big shift but there are big shifts going on worldwide in the commodity business aren't there?

Roach: Well, and both on the supply side and the demand side. And I think it's the demand side that we really need to focus in on. I know the market is going to have to trade this supply and that's going to be really the nature of our trade over the next few months. But for producers who are looking at bigger pictures, in other words, what are we going to have next fall and next winter and maybe a year from now the outlook is very bright. We're going to have to raise very large yields on both corn and soybeans and on wheat as well in order to supply the demand that we have out there particularly in the case of corn. When I do the supply-demand tables and look at the graphics on that which we posted on our Website those graphics will show you that we have a very tight supply situation a year from now with the need to raise another 8-10 million acres in 2008. Where are those acres going to come from? So, I think we have to look at corn as a multi-year price advancing commodity and I think we have to be careful when the market goes down like we've seen here just in the last two or three weeks, we have to be very careful that we do not get panicky. Now, by the same token, when we have strong prices and we get sell signals in the market we can't ignore them either. People who ignored the opportunities that were available here just two or three weeks ago or just a week and a half or so ago on soybeans should remember not to do that. When you have a good, strong market and you're getting peaks in the market you've got to be willing to make sales.

Pearson: Alright, you mentioned on the show making soybean sales, particularly some new crop sales and you mentioned that we're lagging a little bit on soybean sales.

Roach: Yeah, farmers sold corn heavily a year ago, a lot of farmers sold more corn than they really wished that they would have sold and so they're trying to make up for it I think by holding onto the beans and beans have had a pretty positive argument because if you're going to take away all those acres and put it in corn then the bean supplies are definitely going to tighten in this country. But we must remember that South America also raises soybeans and their crop is a bumper crop, they're going to take away our market here as we go through these next three, four, five months, the demand all shifts to South America and so producers need to take advantage of any strength we get here in the market and I think we should see some strength this next week to be making sales.

Pearson: The impact on these stronger corn prices throughout the winter months have been phenomenal. We've seen it with land prices, with cash rents, fertilizer prices are dramatically higher based on the overall oil situation. As you look at this, we've had a tremendous run now in commodity prices. Are we due for a correction across the board on these?

Roach: Well, we've just had a correction. I mean, this is a substantial correction in the corn market, substantial correction in the wheat market and somewhat of a correction in the soybean market so we're in the midst of that. The question is can we come back and see exciting markets again and I believe we can. We must have big yields. The weather forecast as I view it is not most conducive to getting early planting going. We've got a lot of moisture in the forecast, in the near-term forecast and we have cold weather following that. I think we're going to get nervous about getting these acres planted and I think that we're likely to have at least one or two worry periods during the growing season.

Pearson: Alright, that will be another opportunity to make sales. John Roach, thank you so much for insights, we appreciate it. From all of us here on Market to Market, this is Mark Pearson saying thanks for joining us here at our Market Plus Website. Tell your friends and neighbors to join us here too. We'll be back here again next week.

Tags: agriculture commodity prices markets news USDA