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Market Plus: Sep 08, 2006: John Roach, Senior Market Analyst

posted on September 8, 2006

Market Plus: Sep 08, 2006: John Roach, Senior Market Analyst Pearson: This is the Market Plus segment for September 8th, 2006. A very special day for the host of Market to Market. It's my birthday. Good to have a friend of mine, John Roach, with me to share it. Let's talk, John, about the markets. And I'll be honest with you, corn and soybeans are still the ones everybody wants to talk about. And they don't want to talk about 2006 necessarily. There has been a lot of storage put up, there has been a lot of people wanting to get this crop put away so they can cash in, in 2006-2007 crop market year, maybe into 2008 crop marketing year. All the indications you talked about on the show, big exports, big ethanol demand, Keith Collins from the USDA was on saying the same thing. Are we getting all to one side of the boat on this outlook for corn prices?

Roach: Well, certainly all the numbers that you see today are over on the bullish side. There is just no other way to slice and dice it. Now, there is always a possibility -- I had one of my, one of my readers write me a question. It said, we're all so excited, what could go wrong? And I suppose it's never a bad thing to focus in on what could go wrong. Remember that there is a whole industry out there that is going to do their very best to prevent all this from happening and for each of the farmers there they should look in the mirror because they're a part of that industry. Farmers this upcoming year will plant the best seeds that we've ever planted and use the best technology with the most optimistic outlook as far as yields are concerned. We've taken care of some of the dry soil situations in some of the areas. So, there is something that can go wrong there. We clearly are all on one side. To me the first thing we have to focus on, of course, we have to focus on what is going to be produced here in 2006. But then immediately we have to focus on what will the acreage be next year. The market needs to stimulate something in the neighborhood of about 5 million more acres of corn this upcoming year in order to get everybody back comfortable. And so the market is going to have to get the price relationship between corn and beans such that people will plant those additional corn acres.

Pearson: Here is what I don't understand, John. It seems like the market has to buy corn acres for ethanol but it also appears if I look at what you're saying demand is going to be they need to be buying soybean acres too in, at least by 2008.

Roach: Well, the testimony that Dr. Keith Collins had this week called for up to 7 million acres to come out of the CRP program which would most likely be in 2007 in order to handle the increased corn and the increased soybeans that we'll be needing. Now, the soybean acreage can be gleaned from South America, there is certainly plenty more acres there that could go into production. But you have to get profitability correct for them and it's not currently for the Brazilian producer. So, the first thing we do is we get more corn acres and then we're going to have to figure out how to get more bean acres particularly as we go on into 2008.

Pearson: Alright, and that means higher prices, John.

Roach: Higher prices across the board. You know, we've gone through several different move, upward moves in various investment classes, if you will. And we saw the stock market as an investment class be very strong in the 90's and we've seen energies and precious metals, real estate, industrial metals, we have not yet seen food make a run. I think that is what we're on the verge of. I think we're on the verge of food moving higher. Remember that when you stimulate an economy as big as China, eight, nine, ten percent a year, every year, year after year after year you're going to create a big appetite for food and they have limited capability to increase their production and they have perhaps a huge appetite. And so I think that is the verge of the world that we're on right now is that food is the next play.

Pearson: Alright, John Roach, senior market analyst, thanks so much for joining us here on my birthday. For all of us here on Market to Market, wishing all of you the very best this week. I'm Mark Pearson. Have a great one.

Tags: agriculture commodity prices markets news