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Market Plus: Nov 11, 2005

posted on November 11, 2005

Market Plus: Nov 11, 2005

Pearson: Thanks for joining us for Market Plus this week at our Market to Market Web site, I want to say a special howdy do to all my friends up in Huron, South Dakota. I hope they're tuning in for this week's version of the Market Plus segment. Great to have Doug Hjort with me because he is our wheat man. And Doug, some good news on the export side on wheat this week. You eluded to it on the show. You also eluded to the fact that both Kansas City and Minneapolis have been pretty strong markets this fall. We're near our seasonal time, should we be making sales?

Hjort: Yeah, I think so. I think some should be sold. I'm a little bit bullish as we go on into the new year as well. And it depends on your storage situation and so on. We've got good storage, especially in the northern plains where you'll get winter, most likely we'll have winter this year again. And I wouldn't mind holding some of the crop into next spring. Our winter wheat crop is really in pretty dry condition right now. It's not terribly, mostly in the good to fair categories as far as rating goes. But there is not much rain in the forecast for a good share of our winter wheat producing areas. Yeah, you can have rains in the spring and nice weather in March and so on and get the crop going and have a decent crop but you're really tempting fate to do that if you don't have a pretty good base to work with during the winter.

And it's not just here but it's around the world. There is, we're on one of these weather situations to where there is no real panic any place but it's just a little too dry and the rainfall just is not coming the way you normally see it and so on. So, make some sales now, yes. Generate some cash here and get the bills paid up. But, you know, up to half of the crop I wouldn't mind carrying into the spring.

Pearson: Okay, alright. I want to talk about hogs. We didn't have much time on the show this week to talk about the hog market. And a couple of things I wanted you to address and you addressed it partially which was pork, in effect, has become very similar to poultry and they seem to have a real handle, the large integrators have a real handle on just how much pork is going to be produced. We've had good prices for hogs now two years running. Typically that has always brought an expansion cycle to our door. So far anyway we haven't seen it.

Hjort: We haven't and maybe it's partly the cost of construction of new buildings and so on and so forth for these big operations that has been holding things down. I don't know. But maybe they just like to make some profit too. And that, you know, the poultry industry moved that way, what, 40 years ago now or whatever. And the hog industry I think there is enough production controlled by the big operators that they can keep that supply just pretty well level. No interest in expanding the hog herd for how many reports now, a whole bunch of them. And it's odd, something we just have to change our thinking about in the hog industry because you're absolutely right, every time there is profit there before we've ruined it down the line some place and now we just don't seem to do that. Oh, I expect we're going to see some hog prices dropping back off.

But another thing this does from a marketing standpoint, it takes away the need for hedging because our prices are more stable. And the speculator likes to jump into that hog market and run it around like crazy. They make that hog futures look like pork bellies sometimes. And so hedging can be real dangerous to your health and wealth. And so you need to be very careful on hedging. What I'm doing with my clients if you put on a hedge look at it as a spec hedge, if you make some profit in it, prices drop significantly take that, put that in the bank, wait for the next opportunity.

Pearson: Alright, as usual some great insights. Doug Hjort with me this week on Market Plus. I want to thank you for joining us here as well. For all of us here on Market to Market, have a great week.

Tags: agriculture commodity prices markets news