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Market Plus: Oct 14, 2005

posted on October 14, 2005


Market Plus: Oct 14, 2005

Pearson: Welcome to Market Plus here at our Market to Market Web site. I'm Mark Pearson. With me tonight, one of our senior market analysts, Tomm Pfitzenmaier. Well, Tomm, we keep telling the same story on selling corn, which we need to sell to carry. We need to actually do that and then hold the cash corn. And guys out there that don't have any storage are saying, well that's not going to work for me. So, they're going to take the LDP and hope for the best. Talk about people on the other side of this thing because we're looking at cattlemen, you're talking about tonight, you know, we could get pretty soft on this demand for beef. We talked about it a little bit in the show, covering some feed needs for both cattle and hogs. And it's an awful cheap time to do that.

Pfitzenmaier: Yeah, as I said on the show, obviously that your best choice is to buy the cash side and I think you can do that any time in here. As far as those who want to speculate or buy corn for whatever other reason you might want to buy it, historically you tend to bottom the corn market in the November/December time period. So, I think you start getting into the, you know, 10th to the 15th of November, I think you need to start watching that market pretty closely. And then the question is, what do you buy? I'm not sure you want to buy the March, May, July contracts because you've got that carry in that is probably going to go out. It seems to me that if there's going to be anything bullish happen in this market it's going to happen in the Dec. of '06 contract. It probably has the least amount of downside and equal upside to everything else. It is my impression talking to farmers that you're probably going to see some switching of acres from beans, from corn back to beans next year. It's going to tighten up that corn acreage a little bit. People are nervous about what it's going to cost to put a corn crop in and so I think that December of '06 contract should be fairly well supported and have a minimal downside. If you can get it bought in that $2.42 to $2.35 range, I don't think there is a great deal of risk to owning it there.

Pearson: Talk also, Tomm, because we have a lot of cow/calf producers that watch this show. And, you know, you're interested about getting these feeders cheap, or getting these calves cheap for these feeders. But, you know, what can we do to maximize things? You brought up a good point, you go out next fall you can start looking at some of those feeder ... they look pretty attractive and these feeders may be beat up pretty good by then.

Pfitzenmaier: Yeah, and a lot of people say, oh, I hate to sell feeder cattle at 107, 108 when they're at 117 but, you know, that's only ten dollars off the high. That's not bad and if you go back and look at the big picture, have somebody scrounge you up a long-term feeder cattle chart, that's a pretty darn good price for calves out that far facing into a market that could definitely have some adversity hit it here over the next -- that's not a prediction that we will but, you know, there are some things shaping up here that could definitely pressure that market.

Pearson: If you've been out trying to buy bred cows or if you've been out, you know, looking at this cow market, look at the expense wrapped up in it, it might just be a good little piece of insurance to have.

Pfitzenmaier: Yeah, and insurance -- at these lofty levels I don't think insurance is all that bad an idea because even though you think things can't get worse, they definitely can.

Pearson: Absolutely. Tomm Pfitzenmaier, thank you so much for your input. Our senior market analyst Tomm Pfitzenmaier joining us this week on the show and, of course, here on Market Plus. For all of us here at Market to Market, thanks for joining us on the Internet. We'll see you next week.

 


Tags: agriculture commodity prices markets news