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Market Plus: Aug 05, 2005

posted on August 5, 2005


Market Plus: Aug 05, 2005

Pearson: Thanks for joining us on Market Plus here at our Market to Market Web site. I'm Mark Pearson. With me this week one of our senior analysts Doug Hjort. Doug, Informa numbers were out this week on corn and soybeans and a pretty interesting number. You said on the show they're kind of near the high side or you felt the high end on the range especially on corn around $1.39. August 12th will be here soon and we'll get the USDA's number. It always seems like USDA's August number is kind of discounted too.

Hjort: Well, I think it is and it's partly because of the way the report is taken. You know, they don't peel back the shucks and count the kernels because it's not uniform, the cob is not developed fully all over the United States. I think $1.39 might be the top side of it primarily because it can, the same number or virtually the same number came from Informa and from FC Stone. And those two are probably the most respected people in the respect that they do some survey work. It's not just a guess as a lot of us do from our desks. And also they're probably two of the more conservative groups out there. So, I think they may be up towards the high side. you'll see some down. As a matter of fact, I talked to one that thinks they're coming with a $1.33 yield.

Pearson: Now, that gets interesting.

Hjort: It does because that puts your ending stocks a year from this fall down around 1.2 or about, yeah, 1.2 billion bushel. Well, that's still enough to get you through but you're starting to worry then, you know, if there is any additional loss. And that is the thing to consider. USDA's August number is often, especially years of crop stress, it's often on the high side. September will come down, October might come down too. And we've certainly had a lot of stress this year. Now we just have to find out if this, if the crop, if the seeds are able to withstand this kind of stress like they have in some of the other years. So, I think the range of yield estimates will be probably $1.33, might be about as low as we'll see or there might be one low ball beyond that. But the $1.39 I think could be towards the high side and that is kind of where I think USDA might come in too but I would expect September numbers to be something lower than that.

Pearson: Alright, yeah, and so if we look at this report and we prepare as we go into it, if we come in with USDA around a 10.3 billion bushel crop, 2.8 billion bushel soybean crop, market reaction you think will be ho-hum?

Hjort: I think so especially like after this week, you know, soybeans flushed out on Friday of this week. They were thirty, thirty-one cents lower at one point, gained back half of that loss by the close. But that is what this market needs is to sell off. It's always better to have a market selling off into a major report because then even if the numbers are a little negative most of that might be in the market already. And especially then if there is a little bit of a bullish surprise there is going to be a little bit of a bounce there to get prices back to equilibrium with those new numbers.

Pearson: Alright, if we get a bounce, you said on the show if we get a bounce you'd be taking some action.

Hjort: On the corn for sure. Soybeans it just kind of depends on where that is at. Excuse me, if you're looking at a yield below 38 bushel per acre, which I don't think we'll get, but if you do that will really tighten things up and then finding out more about Brazil. If they really intend to slash their acreage like they're talking now and part of that is because of rust, because of diseases, nematodes, whatever, you know, down there that they hadn't had to worry about for years but now soybeans on soybeans on soybeans they're starting to face some of that stuff. So, we could have a pretty stemmy soybean picture going into the New Year.

Pearson: Okay, alright, so be on the lookout, August 12th you were saying probably tread water until we get through that report and we'll see what happens. Doug Hjort, thank you so much. That will wrap up this edition of Market Plus here at our Market to Market Web site. Thank you for joining us, be sure to tell your friends and neighbors. We appreciate it and from all of us here on Market to Market, I'm Mark Pearson. Have a great week.

 


Tags: agriculture commodity prices corn markets news soybeans