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Market Plus: Jul 08, 2005

posted on July 8, 2005


Market Plus: Jul 08, 2005

Pearson: Thank you for joining us for our Market Plus page here at our Market to Market Web site. I'm Mark Pearson. I'm glad you've joined us because there is so much going on in these commodity markets, as we said on the show a real roller coaster. Soybean market, corn market in particular been moving all over the place. Concerns about weather, some concerns about the hurricane in addition to maybe some negatives of the hurricane providing some moisture to all of our friends and viewers there in the eastern Corn Belt. Darin, you're kind of down playing this drought and this hurricane a little bit. You said, the market is _____ but in terms of fundamentals the impact isn't that big.

Newsom: Well, you know, they've built a lot in at this point to the dry weather. And, you know, the last couple of days traders have actually taken a step back and said, okay now, let's see what happens this weekend. So, a lot of the movement that we've seen over the last couple of sessions has been without a lot of activity in the market. If Dennis, if Hurricane Dennis actually comes in and follows the path that Ivan took last year, right up and leading into the eastern Corn Belt this may break down that high pressure ridge that we've seen for quite some time. However, if it doesn't and these conditions continue we're going to see the market come right back. We'll probably test the highs that we established a couple of weeks ago. Then the traders will get re-interested, interested again in this market. They've sold off a good portion of their long position that they've built over the last couple of weeks, over the last few weeks. And it's almost like they're preparing for this weekend to wait and see.

Pearson: Alright, well, it's going to be interesting to see what happens Monday, Tuesday of next week. I guess Tuesday is when they're talking about the rain will supposedly be hitting southern Illinois.

Newsom:It's supposed to make landfall Sunday, early Monday and then by the second to third day they'll be able to get a pretty good path of where the moisture is going.

Pearson: Alright, if there is a path of moisture.

Newsom: If there is.

Pearson: Okay, so a pensive weekend for those people holding corn and soybeans. Erin Golly, let's talk about some livestock issues. You had mentioned a couple of things that you thought were germane that have slipped my mind but I still think they're important. So, hogs and cattle this week, you're talking about expansion in the hog herd, plenty of meat being around. You mentioned poultry. We've got a lot of protein out there for people that need it and yet this fed cattle market has certainly been hit but this feeder cattle market just is phenomenal.

Golly: That's right and it just looks to stay strong. There is so much limited supply out there and there is just great demand. And we don't see demand going anywhere but up for feeder cattle, there is just nothing around for them, it just looks great for feeder cattle producers right now.

Pearson: Tongue in cheek I asked you on the show if you'd buy cows right now and you came back and said well, it almost makes no sense to the way the fats are priced.

Golly: It sure doesn't make any sense. It's the first time I've seen that in a while actually. It's a crazy market right now.

Pearson: It's a crazy market for those cattle people out there. You were talking maybe 70's, into the 70's with these fed cattle?

Golly: Into late July and early August clean up these heavy supplies that we've got in front of us, a little bit of heavy supplies and we've got large supplies right now. And fuel costs are up right now so I think if we can get down to those 70's, clean up the supplies I think we'll have a nice rally out of there and put our bottoms in right there.

Pearson: Okay, and if oil prices recede we might see this beef demand start to perk back up again.

Golly: I think it'll help out a lot if fuel prices can come down.

Pearson: Okay, and as you're looking at the hog side we're talking real numbers here. Obviously there is also the issue of where the Japanese are, beef versus pork. As long as beef remains closed, in spite of these bigger numbers that export market is going to look awfully good for hogs isn't it?

Golly: Well, the export market needs to be good for hogs because the domestic market isn't providing any support. We really need that domestic market to step in to put in an underlying base for the hog market because we just haven't had any domestic demand this year at all.

Pearson: Okay, it's been a wild one. I want to thank you both, Erin and Darin for being with us. That wraps up the Market Plus page here at our Market to Market Web site. For all of us here on Market to Market, I'm Mark Pearson. Have a great week.


Tags: agriculture commodity prices corn markets news