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Market Plus: Apr 01, 2005

posted on April 1, 2005


Market Plus: Apr 01, 2005

Pearson: Welcome to the Market Plus page here at our Market to Market Website. We're so glad you've joined us here in the cyber world for this cyber version of the Market to Market program. Tomm Pfitzenmaier is our guest this week and Tomm, you were telling people several weeks ago when this bean market jumped up start making some sales. Hopefully people took advantage of that. Hopefully we moved some old crop. Hopefully at some of those higher prices we got some new crop prices. That may turn out to be pretty attractive. But there are a lot of factors going along with this bean market. You mentioned on the show commodity funds. What do they really do for the market? Just add volatility?

Pfitzenmaier: Yeah, I think volatility is going to be the name of the game all through the summer and the nice thing about volatility is it creates opportunity. And it takes a little intestinal fortitude to step in there and take advantage of that. But that is why the option market was invented. I mean, if you -- like I said on the show if you can get November beans down that $5.80, $5.70 areas maybe you didn't get anything sold but it might be a really good place to step in there, buy yourself some calls. I think the trade is all hopped up about this rust thing and if there is any hint of it and you know there is going to be at some point then you've got the confidence that if that thing does bounce up there to $6, $6.50, $7 wherever it goes you've got a calling place to protect you against it blowing off the top and you can step in there and make some nice sales and you get a break to $5.70 here and you've got a chance to get those calls bought a little cheaper. So, I think the opportunity is going to be presented on both ends here and you can use that option market to your advantage because volatile markets are perfect for using option strategies.

Pearson: I also want to follow up with you on corn. You talked about the fact that it's a pretty substantial carryout in the corn market. And yet, you also said we're going to need trend line yields to meet demand. Last year was a phenomenal year, 2004 was phenomenal. We tend to market and think about whatever it was we did or didn't do last year. So, going to 2004 if we have weather issues could we get volatile in that corn market?

Pfitzenmaier: Well, I mean, corn is just a follower to beans and if you have volatility in the beans you're probably going to have some corresponding volatility in the corn market. But, I don't know, I think the corn has got a real -- trend line yield we were way, way, way above trend line last year. We can even be a little under trend line with the higher corn yields and we still have way too much corn. So, the upside potential I think it pretty limited on corn. Maybe it'll get drug along some by the beans and maybe we will have some problems that get people excited and that is why I mentioned if you get in that $2.40 to $2.50 area you make some sales and that may be what causes that to happen. But there is 20 cents to 25 cents downside in those old crop corn and I think you're kind of whistling past the graveyard to think that that is not a good thing to do if you've got old crop corn still sitting around.

Pearson: Absolutely, Tomm as usual appreciate your insights. Tomm Pfitzenmaier joining us this week, one of our senior market analysts on Market to Market. I hope you'll join us again next week right here at our Market to Market Website and of course on your local public television station. For all of us here on Market to Market, have a great week.

 


Tags: agriculture commodity prices markets news