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Market Plus: Feb 18, 2005

posted on February 18, 2005


Market Plus: Feb 18, 2005

Pearson: Thanks for being part of this week's Market Plus here at our Market to Market Web site. I'm Mark Pearson, glad you could join us. Darin Newsom is with us and Erin Golly, two of our regular market analysts. And we're going to follow up, Darin, just a bit more on these soybeans and this soybean market. You're saying clear out the bins and get her sold.

Newsom: I think so. This fifty, sixty cent move that we've seen over the last couple of weeks has been a gift from the commodity funds. You know, people talk about them both sides, you know, hate them, shouldn't be in the market but they provide these kind of opportunities when they get a little over excited without a change in the overall fundamental situation. So, with the basis situation what it is, still fairly firm, you know, bids coming out of the Gulf, interior bids I would say this is an opportunity to start moving the old crop beans.

Pearson: Alright, so make some sales. New crop, you're saying maybe start looking at pricing November beans.

Newsom: Right, we've seen the November contract run up into the $5.70 area. We don't -- a lot of times we don't get that this time of year. Is there a possibility to run further? Absolutely. We're in a weather market. We don't know what is coming around the corner. But this is an opportunity, again, to get about 10, 15, possibly up to 20 depending on your situation percent of the new crop expectations covered with forward contracting.

Pearson: Erin Golly joins us this week and of course she was talking about livestock during the show. But Erin, you're thinking that maybe producers need to look at maybe covering some of those feed needs.

Golly: Well, we do. On the corn side though it looks like corn is going to stay cheap for producers through the year of 2005. But the one thing we want to keep an eye on is that the soybean meal cost. There is not rust in the United States right now but if we do happen to get it in there could be some knee jerk reactions to soybean rust location announcements just because we've never dealt with it before. It is a cost that could effect your bottom line. So, if it does happen just to keep an eye on it.

Pearson: It may be a way for this market to kind of chill after this short covering rally.

Golly:That's right.

Pearson: Get some at least meal needs specifically covered.

Golly: That's right, it's just something to keep an eye out for.

Pearson: Alright, as you look ahead in this market you were fairly friendly to this cattle market, we talked briefly about Canada too. And you're saying except for maybe this calf market probably not much of an impact from Canada's reopening.

Golly: For the fed cattle market? I think the fed cattle market is going to stay strong. There is just really good demand right now and then the Japanese deal is really still up in the air. They're saying -- they were saying late spring, now it's late summer. It could get pushed back further but we're seeing good demand for cattle and there is just not a lot of cattle around right now.

Pearson: Okay, so a decent outlook for the beef market and as Darin mentioned earlier, soybeans, we've got a good opportunity to make some sales. So, we're on the upswing in agriculture this week. Thanks for being a part of the Market Plus segment. I'm Mark Pearson. For all of here on Market to Market, have a great week.


Tags: agriculture commodity prices markets news soybeans