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Market Plus: Dec 17, 2004

posted on December 17, 2004


Market Plus: Dec 17, 2004

Pearson: Welcome to the Market Plus page here at our Market to Market Web site, I'm Mark Pearson, so glad you could join us. Our senior analyst, John Roach, with us this week. John, always good to get your insights. I want to kind of focus, livestock you're fairly friendly to, you talked about some statistics that are really positive for both beef and pork going on down the road. I want to talk about corn and beans though. As I look at -- looking on down the road here you made a good point, we're in this interesting situation with corn where we need a big corn crop and yet we've got some carryover. Demand has been phenomenal, we've had increased ethanol use, we've had increases in export demand, it could be huge again this next year. We need to produce a lot of corn. Producers are sitting there going, you know, what price and the soybean rust situation. So, let's focus on those two. Let's talk about corn first and what your thoughts are on this corn market currently and you're relatively friendly.

Roach: I really am, I think the market has been hit with everything except the kitchen sink. The biggest crop ever with heavy producer selling and elevators moving as fast as they can get the transportation, sluggish demand early because there just wasn't anything for the export channels quite frankly. Still sluggish demand because the northern hemisphere, which is where our greatest demand comes from also had a good crop. I'm talking about Europe and other -- China and some other Asian areas. So they supplied their own domestic feed first, as you would expect, and have been slow coming into our market place. Now, we have picked up the business over the last six weeks or so, maybe even eight weeks but we still are looking at the worst of this situation. And, of course, the last ingredient to hit was the soybean rust which means oh my gosh now we're going to have a lot more corn acres in addition to all the other problems. But quite frankly we saw a monster corn crop, if you recall, back in 1994 and it was a huge increase over the prior record, which had just been established in 1992. We had perfect growing conditions in 1994 and we found out what the genetics could do. We had perfect growing conditions in 2004 and we found out what the genetics can do. To expect these kinds of yields next year is a very optimistic outlook. I think instead what we're going to find it we'll be worried about the crop, we'll be worried about getting it planted, we'll be worried about getting moisture on it and we'll be worried about supplying demand and at some point or another the net gives us a much better market for the new crop. Old crop I think we're going to have to slug our way through this old crop but I don't think that as we go forward the news will be as bad as the news has been.

Pearson: Alright, stay put on the corn was your advice tonight. Let's talk about soybeans where your advice is just the opposite. You sound like you want to sell them right now.

Roach: Yeah, I think it's time to be a seller of soybeans. Not only am I willing to sell old crop soybeans, on a scale up I wouldn't dump them all out today, normally we get a sell signal last four to six days. So, on strength I'd be a seller of inventory. I'd get myself down to just my gambling beans. I would -- if the market will push up here enough I'd be more than willing to buy some $5.40 May bean puts. In other words, I'll hedge some of my new crop in the South American's harvest period because I think that makes better sense than doing anything with November soybeans. I think we just have to face the reality that we're going to have a lot of bushels of bin -- of beans in our bins and a monster crop coming out of South America and as soon as we become a little more confident in that South American crop the market is going to come back under heavy pressure.

Pearson: Some good points as usual. John Roach, our senior analyst here on Market to Market joining us this week. I want to thank him and I want to thank all of you for checking us out here at our Market Plus page at our Market to Market Web site. From all of us here at Market to Market, have a great week.


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