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Market Plus: Nov 12, 2004

posted on November 12, 2004


Market Plus: Nov 12, 2004

Pearson: Welcome to the Market Plus page here at our Market to Market Web site. We had one of the best market discussions I think we've ever had in person, in history on the show Friday night with Sue Martin. We really talked about a lot of different things. Sue, you talked about this soybean market. This rust situation, you're thinking the market -- this is going to give the market one more big concern as we go forward.

Martin: Well, I think what is going to happen is now that the USDA production report is out of the way until the final in January the market has no other news to look at. So, what it's going to focus on now is South American production, what the weather is like and of course they are going to walk a tight rope with the Asian rust. Either they are going to have Asian rust or else they are going to be probably too warm and dry. They are going to have to have everything just perfect and I don't think they're going to get that. And then not to mention the markets the way they are and the currency situation the way it is, the real gaining against the dollar. Those guys down there for the first time in years are going to lose money. I think what we're looking at is that they may be about to peak unless they bring in new acres but next year new acres going to beans, I don't think so, not after this year. They're going to slow up and plant something else next year. But in between we're now going to be a little bit intimate with South America. We now realize we've got the same disease here, or fungus, as they have had. And all of a sudden when it hits your own turf it becomes a little bit more reality. So, I think that the focus is going to be very interested on what goes on in Brazil. And then the next thing is, is that we're going to realize that it's going to increase farmer's costs for planting beans and producing beans maybe fifteen, maybe twenty percent more than it was originally. So, these cheap prices are pretty important. I went back and I took every bull year, major bull year since 1973, or 1970 and of course there were six major bull years, '73, '77, which this year was talked about a lot to pattern after, '83, '88, '93, '96 and of course now currently we're in our seventh one. And I took those years and looked at them and after the bull move had finished itself off it was not uncommon in those six years to find a low in the month of November for soybeans and then the May contract rallied multi-months. Many times it rallied into May and then the July contract went on into June of the following year. But what was interesting was is that if you made a November low there was only one time out of those six bull markets that you put a low in, in January before you rallied on into June with beans the next year. And the only reason that year I think is that we were so late is because the bull move and that year was '83, didn't start until the bottom came in the end of June and it was over with in September. So, it shifted forward a little bit more in time than most of them did and consequently, in fact, it was starting when all the others were ending. So, I think it took a little longer and gave you your lows later. But that was the only one that did that and so I think that other than that you pretty much would have to look for a high on the May contract, know earlier than January/February, maybe the end of February and pretty much it's February on into March at the earliest. I think we've got some potential here in this market.

Pearson: Okay, interesting, you mentioned maybe of course the payment in kind years so you have the government involved in a big way on top of a drought. So, that would be an anomaly. If you're going to have one that would be it. Alright, now I want to talk about -- so some optimism for beans potentially. Let's talk about fed cattle market where you've not been very upbeat.

Martin: That's right. I'm looking at February futures -- first of all, we're in a very seasonal type of a rally right at the moment. You know, numbers should start to tighten up a little bit more. Packers are losing a lot of money on cattle and as the numbers tighten up they either have to have a good rally in the product or else they are going to lose more money because it takes more, you know, per head to be profitable to clear their, to just break even. So, the packers are losing a lot of money. They are going to be a little tougher to deal with. But this is a very seasonal bounce that you get this week and we've gotten and probably will last into next week. But beyond that once this demand for past the holiday, past Thanksgiving holiday is done all of a sudden this market is going to be very disappointed and it's going to tail off. I look for us to break back into -- and we've been in a pattern like that where you break in the latter part of the month and then you normally would catch a bounce. This one came a little bit later. And I think we're going to make lower lows again in December over what we've seen. February cattle futures if they really get with the program look out if Dec. cattle takes out 82.20. That is a def. now for this market. If we do that then the Feb. cattle in time could get as low as eighty cents, maybe seventy-nine.

Pearson: Not when we wanted to see that happen either from a cattle feeding standpoint. Sue Martin, as usual, some good insights, some good numbers, as usual we appreciate it very much. And we appreciate all of you joining us here. For Sue Martin and for all of us here on Market to Market, I'm Mark Pearson, thanks for joining us on Market Plus.


Tags: agriculture commodity prices markets news