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Market Plus: Aug 06, 2004

posted on August 6, 2004


Market Plus: Aug 06, 2004

Pearson: Welcome to the Market Plus segment here at our Market to Market Web site, we're so glad that you've joined us. Now, don't forget to tell your friends and neighbors that we're here in cyberspace. We'd love to have them tune in too. I had a great visit, Tomm, over in Illinois this last week, great group of producers over there, represented an awful lot of acres and they kept wanting to tell me, hey, don't be broadcasting the fact that this is such a good corn crop because we don't want everybody in Chicago to know. But it looks like from the price action we've seen, the word is out. It looks pretty good.

Pfitzenmaier: You know, I talked to a producer friend of mine that went to a national corn grower's meeting and he said the guys there from Texas were even saying that the only reason they turned on their irrigators was to fertilize this year. And the guys in Nebraska say the corners, the center pivots look as good as the circles do. So, I mean, there is a big crop coming on, you know, I understand there are some drowned out spots and some raggedy corn in north central Iowa and Minnesota but overall, the overall conditions for growing over the whole country are just unbelievably good.

Pearson: So, let's talk about -- the big question down in Springfield at the group down there was, is this going to be a normal year? In other words, is this going to be a year where we get the harvest, you talked about it on the show, this probably is setting itself up to be a pretty normal corn marketing year. So, you don't really want to make those sales off the combine, do you?

Pfitzenmaier: Right, well, that's why I think if we can get a short covering rally here up in December corn up in this $2.40 to $2.45, $2.48 area then I think anything that you don't have room to store that needs to go off the combine this is your opportunity to get that sold. Then you can store the rest of it and take your chances but I think this is your opportunity to get that segment of your production marketed and covered here because there certainly is fairly good downside potential yet in this market.

Pearson: You know, they almost seem to be afraid to say it but we've seen so many of these estimates of a 10.93 in form economics, FC Stone and others, Doane's right there at 11 billion. If we have 11 billion bushel corn crop, Tomm, how much of that are we going to chew through?

Pfitzenmaier: Well, like I alluded to on the show, we're still going to build carry out by three to four hundred million bushel probably. I think you could end up in that 1.2 to 1.25 and like I said, that is plenty and it doesn't mean -- we certainly don't need to rally much but it also makes it important that again next year we have a good crop. So, we're just kind of dancing along on that line here. If we have a hiccup any time we're right back up to $3.40 again like we were this winter.

Pearson: That's right and that, I guess, is kind of what we need to be aware of for the next 24 months.

Pfitzenmaier: Right.

Pearson: So, we need to keep those marketing skills sharp. Let's talk about the livestock. We talked about prices and on the show Friday night you were definitely, we need to be taking action whether we're in beef cattle or whether we're in finished hogs, we need to get some of these prices locked in, we may not see these kinds of prices again. Let's take advantage of it. You talked about that but the flip side is with potential tight, relatively tight carry over, less than half a billion bushels of corn carry out, we need to get -- our feed needs covered here.

Pfitzenmaier: Yeah, the downside on corn is maybe $2.05, maybe $2.10 but I certainly think as a livestock producer you get corn down in that starting at $2.25 and just scale down to $2.10 and start getting your feed needs covered because this is pretty cheap corn and there is the potential for it to not be so cheap as the winter goes on. So, and again, we're doing that predicated on 11 billion bushel crop. Maybe it won't be that good, maybe this cool weather is going to hurt fills or the corn is not going to be as, the kernel depth is going to be more shallow. I don't know, I don't think anybody knows but some of the people you talk to say that cool weather is not necessarily conducive to perfect growing conditions. So, you get down in those levels, you use that as an opportunity to get your feed needs covered.

Pearson: Absolutely, some good comments as usual, some good ideas. That's what we try and bring you on this program. I want to say thanks to Tomm Pfitzenmaier this week and I want to thank all of you for tuning into Market to Market on your local public television program. But thanks for dialing us up here on our Market to Market Internet segment on Market Plus. I'm Mark Pearson, for all of us on Market to Market, have a great week.

 


Tags: agriculture commodity prices corn markets news