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Market Plus: May 28, 2004

posted on May 28, 2004

Market Plus: May 28, 2004

Pearson: Welcome to the Market Plus segment here on our Market to Market Web site. Glad you've joined us. Don't forget, tell your friends and neighbors that we're here, we'd love to talk to them too. This week Tomm Pfitzenmaier, one of our long-time market analysts is with us. Tomm, I'm kind of getting complaints from some livestock people and some wheat people about the fact we're always talking about soybeans. But I've never seen such volatility in a market in my lifetime in agriculture, I don't think you have either. There's still huge concerns about the tightness of supply until this July and August contract -- July goes off the board. And we had another wild week, we're down 58 cents. There can't be that many beans left out there in the countryside are there?

Pfitzenmaier: No, I don't think there are. Although, having said that, somebody asked me the other day, they said if somebody called you up in February and told you that you weren't going to be able to buy gasoline for your car in August, what would you do? I said, well, I'd probably put a tank in my machine shed and fill it up. And they said, well, don't you think that is what the users of soybean meal are doing? I think he makes a good point. There is nothing about this that is a surprise. We've been talking about, ever since harvest basically, that it was going to be tight next August and I suspect you're going to get into August and a lot of the users are going to look at each other and say I've got my needs, do you? And the other guy is going to go, yeah I do, as a matter of fact I've got a little extra, you want to buy some of mine?

Pfitzenmaier: And it's all going to be taken care of. So, I think the market has priced that in fairly well. The thing we have to worry about now is we need to produce a crop this summer to back that up. And this week was probably, we had a couple of things happen where we had the perception that we're probably going to switch some acreage from corn to beans, which is a little bit bearish and then we had this China thing introduced to the market where they're talking about huge cancellations, not buying from Brazil or buying from us. We're hanging a lot on them being big buyers of our products and if they don't that creates some extra product sitting around.

Pearson: Alright, so those factors are going to continue, time will tell what happens. New crop, you talked about that on the show. I said, what is your strategy? You said, I don't have one. You're that way really on corn too. I mean, it's a weather thing.

Pfitzenmaier: Yeah, there is upside potential and the reason I say that is I know how disgusted people get when they sell too early in the market rallies. And so there is no sense introducing that stress and strain to people because number one, most people aren't going to sell anything anyway and number two, if you do and it rallies you're going to be totally disgusted with the strategy anyway. So, I think you have to wait, I think it's a perfect year for options strategies when you have that kind of upside potential. I mean, who knows what the upside potential is. So, if you go in there and sell a futures contract or make a cash sale and the market rallies five bucks you're going to be totally disgusted. So, I think you need to incorporate a strategy that leaves your upside open either by buying puts or buying calls against whatever sales you do make.

Pearson: Absolutely, some good points as usual. Tomm Pfitzenmaier joining us here on our Market to Market Web site, glad you've joined us. Be sure to be with us again next week and from all of us here on Market to Market, have a great week.

Tags: agriculture commodity prices livestock markets news soybeans wheat