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Market Plus: Nov 28, 2003

posted on November 28, 2003

Market Plus: Nov 28, 2003

Pearson: Welcome to the Market Plus page on our Market to Market Web site. We're so glad you've joined us, tell your friends and neighbors, have them join us here too. Sue Martin is with us this week, it's always exciting to have Sue here. And Sue, the soybean market has been one that's got a lot of people guessing about what's ahead, a lot of people trying to figure out what's the best way to go. Some time ago you were talking about the fact, you know, the cash market wants these beans but you've got to be willing to do it. A lot of our viewers tell us they're really not willing to do it and that's use the board.

Martin: That's true. I think, Mark, first of all, the $8.05 area to $8.11 was within a window of our third price projection or wave count. And $8.24 was the 1996 high on January beans and it's the highest high we've had in a long time. So, there's reasons for this market, after a three straight up, three dollar straight up move, there's reasons for the market to step back and so it's justified in doing what it's doing. Also, once the USDA report got out of the way, now we're looking at South American production, it's being planted. This past week we were estimating about 68% planted. I suspect next week we'll be around 75% planted. By the middle of December they should be pretty much done. There's some areas that are very dry and there's some other areas that they're having Asian rust show up already in beans that are less than maybe 60 days old. But we also have to keep in mind that Mato Grasso, there are parts of Mato Grasso that did plant a very early variety of soybeans that will be ready and it's an early variety planted early so it's going to be ready at the end of December. So, South America will have some beans ready early but all in all, I think the market is kind of biting time here, it's set back. We've had not even, well, we've been as low as I speak now around $7.30, the market could come all the way down to $7.11, $7.15 and then that should be pretty much about the extent of the pullback. I think that if we get this market turning though this next week there's going to be some bouncing here because when I look at my timing indicator, soy meal down to nine tenths of a percent on the daily data, that's pretty low and when I look at hourly data it's fairly low on the beans themselves. I like soybean meal but I really like soybean oil as well and, you know, I always like beans being led by meal rather than oil so I have a feeling we're looking at a year ahead where it's going to be one plays tag with the other. In other words, one time it's bean meal leading the way and then the next minute it's the oil taking on leadership. But in some stair step fashion I think beans will try to come higher. To really get rip roaring enthusiastic, to look for something similar to like what cattle went through, we'd have to have a disaster in South America and we haven't got it planted yet. So, we have to wait for that to occur and then we could kill that crop.

Pearson: Got about a minute Sue, wanted to talk about the cattle market. We talked about it on the show. It's been phenomenally good. You don't really see that big of a break coming in the fed cattle market, at least from now, say, through this next month?

Martin: No, I think in the month of December cash will hold fairly well together. Once we get the year rolled over I think we peak and the market starts to come down. Now, we came out of a pinnate formation in the feeders. I'm not so sure fats have done that yet on a weekly data. They've never had a pinnate on the daily. But with these feeders we need to watch now because if they void that pinnate formation or the apex of the pinnate then the market is going to go into a very bearish negative attitude and so then traders want to be very cautious here. A mild winter certainly is not going to be very positive for the cattlemen.

Pearson: That's true, from a price standpoint.

Martin: Right, from a price standpoint.

Pearson: So, when you're out feeding those girls it's going to be nice. But anyway, Sue, we sure appreciate your insight as usual. Thank you so much. Sue Martin joining us here on our Market Plus Web site. We're glad that you've joined us, be sure to tell your friends. For all of us here on Market to Market, thanks much for being with us and we'll talk to you again next week.

Tags: agriculture commodity prices markets news