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Market Plus: Sep 05, 2003

posted on September 5, 2003


Market Plus: Sep 05, 2003

Pearson: Welcome to the Market Plus segment here on our Market to Market Web page. Sue Martin is with us this week and what a week it's been. Over six dollars on the beans. Sue, you're optimistic on beans. Everything clicks along here, these reduced yields have become reality, you're saying we could be looking at much stronger prices?

Martin: Well, I think we are, Mark. And the fronts are starting to build long positions in beans and I think that one thing we have to remember is this is a very seasonal time for beans to rally. It's kind of like your pre-harvest rally and so we're getting that but for some reason I think this year that pre-harvest rally is going to last longer. You may get some little valleys but I don't think they're going to be long lived. And the funds are building long positions and I think that, you know, the fronts, in every market they've touched this year they seem to be going to record lengths. And so I think that if they start getting with the program they could do the same thing in these beans. The one thing I would say is you close over 97, $5.97 in November futures and that market is going to be real enthusiastic. Actually closing over $5.94 is going to be real enthusiastic because that's the 200 month moving average and we haven't closed over that since February of '98.

Pearson:Yes it has. Soybean producers would welcome that and there is frustration out there in the countryside, they are looking at their crops drying up and they're not seeing much of a response. Like I say, two-thirds roughly of the bean belt, we've had some problems.

Martin: Well, we have, not only to fight the weather, but to also fight the pests that we've had this year, the Japanese beetle, the aphids, you know, we've had our share of problems this year.

Pearson: Let's talk about a bright spot and that's been this fed cattle market, unbelievable what's been happening on the beef cutouts, we've seen it at the wholesale level, we've seen it on the cash markets, we've seen the futures shoot up. And we talk about pinching ourselves if you're in the cattle business right now because everything is hitting on every cylinder but Sue, we're always waiting for the other shoe to drop in this business. Is that going to happen with the fed cattle market?

Martin:Well, I think we're going to see it certainly when you start looking at the prices levels we're at, it's like we're in a blow off stage of the cattle. It's interesting because the basis levels keeps dictating pull your cattle ahead and bring them to market which producers are certainly doing and the slaughter this week was a lot heavier than last week. But, the one thing that will really instill that push of green cattle to market is going to be if the market starts to fall back because all of a sudden everybody is going to be scrambling to try to make sure that they can get the best they can for those lightweight cattle. They don't want those prices to get away. So, you know, I look at the market, I think it's a time to be prudent and have some price protection and there are option strategies you can do that protect you but I look at the market and when my timing indicators are getting this high I have to be respectful. I can't get so bulled up, remember Mark, things are always the rosiest at the top.

Pearson: Oh yeah, we face our greatest risk when prices are highest. Sue Martin, always great to have you with us. Sue Martin joining us here on the Market Plus segment. Be sure to tell your friends and neighbors to join us here on the Market Plus segment on our Market to Market Web page. And for all of us on Market to Market, I'm Mark Pearson, have a great week.


Tags: agriculture commodity prices markets news