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Market Plus: Jul 18, 2003

posted on July 18, 2003


Market Plus: Jul 18, 2003

Pearson:Welcome to the Market Plus site here on our Market to Market Web page. Glad that you've joined us and of course, always are looking for more folks to tune into us on Market to Market on television, also our Web site, so be sure to tell a friend. John Roach is with us this week, our senior market analyst and John, we're looking at a market that in a lot of ways we haven't really seen in a while which is big supplies of corn and soybeans, prices dropping as we go towards harvest, but boy we've got an exception out there in wheat and you're not one to sit back and let this opportunity pass.

 

Roach:We have a wheat crop that's just excellent in a lot of areas, a big crop in the United States growing on the last estimate bigger than people anticipated and expected to grow even larger on the upcoming crop report in August and yet the market has had a very nice run-up over the period of the last two weeks. The producers that have been watching closely had an opportunity to take a nice LDP. I had a producer send me an e-mail yesterday that he took a 20 cent, 22 cent I believe, LDP on his wheat, the market prior to today was up eighteen cents from where he took his LDP and we were up another shot today.

Those are excellent marking opportunities and we shouldn't not get stuff, get some wheat sold with the market in this position. We're getting a sell signal on our technical indicators that we pay attention to that have served us so very well this year. Now, sometimes we'll get those sell signals for only a couple of days, sometimes they may last for perhaps as long as six or seven days, it just depends on what it stimulating the market. But the wheat market, in my opinion, there's enough wheat, recently harvested wheat, that this one won't last that long.

 

Pearson:Okay, take note wheat growers. Let's move over to livestock and we talked about on the show, obviously the Canada situation still is a big bugaboo out there from this beef business, John, and we don't know what the details are going to be, nobody else does, concerned about what this means when this Canadian beef comes down. A lot of us remember that government dairy buyout, we had an awful lot of beef dumped on the marketplace and it took us a while to recover from that one and they're concerned that this Canadian situation could be similar. What are your thoughts?

 

Roach:I'm very much concerned that it will be similar. There's a lot of beef that's being backed up and is going to flood us, in my opinion, and I think that when that occurs the market is going to be in trouble and I think that you, if you're in the beef production business, you need to be owning put options to cover the risk of that. Now, it's possible that this may be stalled off and stalled off but it is not going to go away. It is going to come at it and it's going to come at us and it's going to come at us in a big way and the market is very quick to go down when it appears like that is around the corner.

Then when the borders are not opened up then everybody gets optimistic and maybe it'll go away, but the fact is, as I see it, it won't go away, it's still coming.

 

Pearson:Alright, that's going to wrap up our Market Plus page for today. Want to thank you all for joining us. Again, tell your friends. For all of us here on Market to Market, I'm Mark Pearson, have a great week.

 

 


Tags: agriculture commodity prices corn markets news soybeans wheat