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Market Plus: Jul 04, 2003

posted on July 4, 2003


Market Plus: Jul 04, 2003

Pearson: Thanks for joining us here at our Market Plus segment on our Market to Market Web site, I'm Mark Pearson, glad you've joined us. Virgil Robinson is with us this week and Virgil, I'll tell you what, with the potential mad cow issue we kind of ate up some of our time that we weren't expecting on the show. So, we want to talk more about soybeans. We kind of had to speed right by. There's really some positive news out there in this soybean trade right now. This export number you were talking about, this is some good news.

Robinson: Mark, there are some other factors developing as well and I like to watch, or try to watch, as closely as I can the soybean crushing spread, processing margin spread and I keep a weekly continuation chart and it would be my best opinion, Mark, that that chart has fully based and has developed what I think to be a very solid bottom, Mark, here in the last few weeks and I think is soon to be headed higher. So, the point here is if processing margins shadow this particular processing margin spread, which normally they do, it's likely that over the course of the next few weeks processing and crushing beans will again become profitable unlike what has been the case dating back to late 2002, all of 2003. So, if that is in fact true we could surpass what the government is currently projecting in domestic crush and they're projecting an increase of, I think, ten million bushel to a billion six. So, if that were to occur, Mark, and we continue to sell beans aggressively in the export marketing, a weakening dollar certainly assists Japan and Europe in buying various agricultural products including beans, it's likely our demand base could even be larger than what is currently being projected by the USDA. So, while new crop beans have struggled of late based on supply concerns, I think, underpinning this market at some point in time will be the realization that demand continues to grow.

Pearson: So, as I go out and talk to farm groups this time of the year they're all talking about, well, should we sell some new crop here or not? Should we sell some new crop here or not? And the loans lurking back there is something that everyone kind of wants to beat. Should we start pricing some of this new crop soybean?

Robinson: If nothing has been done to this point in time, Mark, I would not be reluctant to begin selling some new crop beans. This five dollar and fifty cent mark or higher given our current crop prospects here in the United States and the likelihood that again, the southern hemisphere will increase their hectares in 2004, is probably a good starting place. I've been a proponent of minimum price which has been employed on a portion of an intended production, Mark, and I'm not at all unhappy with what's happened to this point there. But to answer your question, is it possible that we could be, again, at or below loan for a period of time? Yes, I think that is possible but as mentioned to you a few moments ago, the demand base that we have built in beans, in oil seeds in general and I think will continue to grow is very impressive, Mark, and it will require healthy production in each of the two hemispheres for the foreseeable future.

Pearson: Some positive news, good demand for our soybean products. Virgil Robinson, as usual, we appreciate your insight. Hey, and thanks to all of you for tuning into our Market Plus segment here are our Market to Market Web site. For all of us here on Market to Market, have a great week.


Tags: agriculture commodity prices Mad Cow markets news soybeans