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Market Plus: May 23, 2003

posted on May 23, 2003


Market Plus: May 23, 2003

Pearson: Welcome to the Market Plus page here at our Market to Market Web site, glad that you've joined us. Hey, be sure to tell your friends and neighbors to join us here too and tell them to log on to Market Plus. We'd love to have them join us. Logging on is what it's all about Virgil. We want to talk about maybe logging onto some soybean sales. We talked about new crop on the show briefly. Let's talk about getting some new crop soybeans priced.

 

Robinson: Mark, in shows past it's been my best suggestion to think seriously about minimum price and that can take shape in one of two styles. If you're a producer and you're cognoscente of your local basis and you call your favorite vendors and discover that his or her new crop basis is unusually strong, perhaps you have crop insurance and you're not reluctant to make a forward cash sale, then by all means I would begin to do so as of tonight's market. I would, at some point, either simultaneously or with some type of market timing tactic, look to repurchase that cash sale with some type of option position, Mark, and create a minimum price. I'm kind of hedging or using that as my strategy again this years simply because the variable factors from this point in time to the availability of new crop beans here in the United States is very lengthy and difficult to handicap. The market is assuming a year over year increase here in the United States production wise and within that assumption they're pegging yields to be two and a half to three bushels better than a year ago or back near trend. Well, that remains to be seen, Mark, and I'm reluctant to final price anything given that as one of my primary concerns.

 

Pearson: You talked about your minimum price strategy for a long time. Talk about how it works.

 

Robinson: Well, as mentioned there are one of two forms it can take, Mark. I mentioned earlier if you're not reluctant to make a forward cash sale... perhaps you have insurance, you note that the basis at your vendor is strong, a cash sale is appropriate, with some type of subsequent repurchase with an option, normally an at or near the money option position. The other style is, if you note the basis is normal or worse than normal for new crop delivery than clearly you do not want to make a forward cash sale but rather purchase a put and await a narrowing of the basis or whatever might develop in terms of price improvement should it occur from this point in time towards August of this summer when traditionally July and August are traditionally the two months where bean prices have a tendency to run in price, Mark. There have been any number of instances where you can go back historically in one of those two months or both and there can be a dollar run in soybean futures very easily.

 

Pearson: Absolutely, we've sure seen it. Virgil, as usual, appreciate your insight and what you see ahead for the markets. Virgil Robinson, our guest this week on our Market Plus segment. Again, thanks for joining us here at the Market Plus segment on our Market to Market Web site. For all of us here at Market to Market, have a great week.

 


Tags: agriculture commodity prices markets news soybeans