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Market Plus: Apr 25, 2003

posted on April 25, 2003


Market Plus: Apr 25, 2003 Pearson: Welcome to the Market Plus segment of our Market to Market Web page and hey, if you're enjoying the extra analysis, the bonus analysis from our market analysts, hey drop us a note but more importantly tell your friends or neighbors to check out the Market to Market Web site. Thanks very much in advance. This is Mark Pearson. Our guest this week, Sue Martin, always a pleasure to have Sue with us on the show. Sue, we went on and on and on about the bean market and then you said you still had more to say about beans. A little bit of a pull back this week but you think we're going higher still maybe?

Martin: Well, I think we are. This week we had a twenty-six cent break in the market. The last time we had a break it was equivalent to about twenty-five and three quarter cents so basically twenty-six cents. We had our last break in March into the 26th of March and of course this weekend is the 26th so it's like we're following a pattern. Now, the next thing will be if we try to push this market down and we can't get it to go into that gap or we get partially into the gap and we can't seem to go anywhere and it's very quiet, then I fear we're going to start to see another bounce back in this market and turn and come back and test into these highs again. The $6.25 area is a struggle, it was the most logical place to see problems and of course the bears stand on it but the commercial needs to be buying beans. And also we're looking at our crush, Mark. It's estimated will be down ten percent in our crush this year. Well, if we fall backwards ten percent that means other importing nations will have to probably increase their own crush to accommodate for what they're not getting from us. That means they're going to be buying beans. And when the Chinese are talking about SARS and they're canceling holidays and this type of thing, okay, people stay home but they still eat. And as far as that this may have jumped from ducks to humans in China, avian flu from chickens to humans in the Netherlands, well, you know those are viruses and you have to have a live body or a live host to move those. That does not mean that the meat itself is tainted or not to be eaten. And of course, what do the Chinese eat? Poultry and pork. You know, before the SARS outbreak happened I was invited to go on a trade delegation over to China and what the Chinese government had asked for this and what they were interested in was people to come over to help them look into their swine industry and give them ideas of better efficiencies, this type of thing. Now, they wouldn't be doing that if they were looking at slowing down. So, they're expanding in pork production and of course that's also a protein user. So, I don't see this as being the reason to take the markets down.

Pearson: Alright, I want to talk about hogs for a minute. You and I both are close to and work with a lot of pork producers out there. It's been a long couple of years in this hog business, this hog cycle. You think maybe we've bottomed here? Do you think we've been through the worst?

Martin: I really think we have been through the worst. We've seen a lot of liquidation. There's quite a few producers that are getting out of the business and those who make it through the first half of this year because bankers are very ill at ease now with the pork producer, I think that they will have turned the corner and times will be getting better. Next year should be very good and that's also another good sign. And then demand seems to be picking up for the product too. So, I think pork has turned the corner and it's going to get better.

Pearson: Alright, well some positive news on the meat front. We'll see on these soybeans what happens ahead. As usual, it's a pleasure. Sue Martin joining us here on Market Plus. Thanks for being a part of our Market to Market Web page. Again, be sure to tell your friends or neighbors and join us at Market Plus next week. For all of us here on Market to Market, I'm Mark Pearson. Have a great week.


Tags: agriculture commodity prices markets news