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Market Plus: Apr 04, 2003

posted on April 4, 2003


Market Plus: Apr 04, 2003

Pearson: Hey, thanks for joining us for this week's edition of Market Plus here at our Market to Market Web site, really glad that you joined us. I'm Mark Pearson, the host of Market to Market with a request. Be sure to tell your friends about the Market to Market Web site. We'd like to have them join us too. This week our analyst was Sue Martin and Sue, I'll tell you what, after your lecture on soybeans in the show you said that there's still a lot more to talk about. What else is there to talk about on soybeans?

Martin: Well, I think that one area that we have overlooked in demand, you know, we're so caught up in China, the demand that they have and of course they've got thirteen crushing plants and there's some new ones going up besides that ADM is putting up. And so they keep drawing beans from the U.S. and the bear also talks about how he sees negative things for soy meal and this type of thing, but I think it's a bean market type rally. In other words, a bean, whole bean rally is a better way to put it. When we look over at the Middle East, Iran just these last two months, has imported 3.7 million metric tons of beans. Now, that is a first in over 20 years and in the Middle East there is crushing plants that have been put up in Egypt, Iran, Syria, Lebanon and I think Saudi Arabia is going to be doing some crushing plants as well and there's also talk about new plants coming up in Qatar and oh golly, I want to say even more so being added again in Iran. So, I think what we're looking at is that this is an area where the population has been exploding and they're finding that there's a demand for more poultry and so because of this demand for more poultry our soybean association and through international government agencies has done a really good job with check-offs and this type of thing promoting the use of soybeans, the U.S. soybean and the fact that it's a good quality product and more profitable and they'll gain more profitability by using it. Now, the U.S. has 75% of the market share there already and what's interesting is you would think with what's going on now in Iraq between the U.S. and Iraq that that would maybe slow up exports but it's not, in fact it's expected that beans will be able to get through into all those channels of Egypt as well. Egypt is another country that has processing plants that they've put up and will be putting more up. So, the demand is looking to grow over there. Now, maybe this is a bit optimistic on my part but I'm very patriotic and I believe that the war is going along relatively well and I think that our goal is to show them over there in the Middle East that we are going to liberate Iraq and allow them to govern themselves. What that does is ultimately is bring prosperity to the area and I would not be surprised that as that prosperity hits Iraq, they too will expand in poultry needs or usage and that's going to be more meal needed, that means they're going to import the whole beans and it'll come from the U.S.

Pearson: You're very bullish and we don't have much time, Sue, so tell me what's your best case scenario for bean prices? Where would you like to sell beans this year?

Martin Well, I would love to sell beans starting from about, I would say around $7.75 to $8.45. By $8.45 anything that I was holding, in fact I'd be very aggressive in there, anything, I do not see the market at all getting anything above $8.45. Now, granted, there's some things that have to happen to get there and I suspect that the enhancement of weather will help us along with the most, that will be our tail end. The more emotional move will be the one that will carry us up to that level. But certainly, with all the demand that we have going on and the changing of business from South America to the U.S. we're going to go to $7.00 and $6.55, $7.00.

Pearson: All right, Sue, appreciate you joining us this week on Market Plus. For all of us here at Market to Market and for Sue Martin, thanks for joining us, we'll see you again next week.

 


Tags: agriculture commodity prices markets news soybeans