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Market Plus: Mar 14, 2003

posted on March 14, 2003


Market Plus: Mar 14, 2003

Mark Pearson: Hey, thanks for joining us here at our Market Plus segment on our Web site. Hey, be sure and tell your friends too. We appreciate everyone who checks in here at our Market Plus site. Joining us this week, our analyst on the program, Tomm Pfitzenmaier of the Summit Brokerage. Boy, Tomm, I'll tell you what, it's been interesting watching the soybean market. I guess a lot of people thought it would be a little bit lower by now with the Brazilian crop.

 

Tomm Pfitzenmaier: Yeah, I think they did. You know, the Brazilian crop is going to be big but a lot of that was forward priced last fall. There's a strong incentive for them to hold a certain percentage of it because they use those beans to pay for the inputs on next year's crop so they don't want to part with those. So, maybe we're not going to quite see the movement that we're expecting. I don't know, it's going to be very interesting because if we don't, that market has got a lot of potential on the upside if you don't start to see, I mean, we've already got exports way ahead of what we were even expecting for this year.So, that's going to be a very interesting market to watch, no question. That's why I wouldn't be in a hurry to sell any new crop beans at all.

 

Mark Pearson: Yeah, and especially with what's ahead in this market. They're not giving us much to get excited about.

 

Tomm Pfitzenmaier: Yeah, I mean, if you want to speculate a position I think you can buy those November beans probably and make some money on the upside if that's your inclination.

 

Mark Pearson: Okay, so lead standpoint, get the old crop cleared out but don't be in a hurry to get this new crop sold.

 

Tomm Pfitzenmaier: Right because the new crop corn is the thing I think you absolutely need to be aggressive on because we're probably going to have an increase in acreage, all likelihood is we're going to have normal to maybe even a little better than normal weather this year and you put that combination together with a lousy demand, lower livestock numbers and you could see two dollar to $2.05 December futures going into the fall. And with them up in that $2.40 to $2.45 that just looks like a great sale to me.

 

Mark Pearson: Absolutely, Tomm, let's talk livestock here for just a minute. A lot of people have gotten a little bearish on this cattle market. You really haven't been. You're saying numbers are down, the economy picks up and we're going.

 

Tomm Pfitzenmaier: Yeah, I mean, don't get me wrong I'm not like wildly bullish or anything but I think you get, there's another dollar and a half to two dollars back up of correction in this thing and if you're afraid of the market, you're afraid of the Iraq war, you're afraid of the economy and all that, go out and buy yourself a put, spend a buck and have some disaster insurance. I would never counsel anybody against that. But I certainly think if you're going to, I wouldn't sell futures here and I think you can do better than where we're at right now.

 

Mark Pearson: Alright, so some good news there for livestock producers. Some opportunities to get some old crop beans sold near the contract highs and get those moved now and let's hold off and see what happens as far as getting new crop price.

 

Tomm Pfitzenmaier: Yeah, absolutely.

 

Mark Pearson: All right, Tomm, appreciate it. Thanks very much. Tomm Pfitzenmaier joining us this week on our Market Plus segment. For all of us here at Market to Market, thanks for joining us.

 


Tags: agriculture commodity prices markets news