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Market Plus: Mar 07, 2003

posted on March 7, 2003


Market Plus: Mar 07, 2003

Pearson:Welcome to the Market Plus page here on our Market to Market Web site, glad that you've joined us. Be sure to tell your friends. John Roach is our analyst this week, good to have John in the studio. And John, this soybean market, everybody is talking about it, a lot of beans. You mentioned on the show, there's a lot of beans stored out there. It's going to take something pretty extraordinary to move them to town or not something extraordinary that's going to force them to sell. What's your take? You talked on the show about maybe one more upside on the beans?

Roach:Well, the bean markets had much better demand all season long than anybody anticipated and it's really been led by China. The problem we have now is that the South Americans are coming on stream. I don't really see that the U.S. farmer has lots of beans left. I think U.S. farmers sold a lot of beans. So, there certainly is the possibility to have something explosive come but at the moment it looks like South America has plenty of beans to be able to satisfy any level of demand from anywhere unless there's just a problem of logistics or something of that nature. So, I think that the bean market can have another run back up toward the levels we saw last week but I think we're going to need to move out everything other than something that you want to gamble with into maybe a weather issue this summer.

Roach:Here's where I think the gambling beans are wagered, I think they're wagered on dryness on the Western corn belt, some of that dryness spreading on through into northern Illinois through Southern Iowa and that seems to be what's driving some of these guys to hang onto the product. Well, I think that that certainly is the case. I think there's something else happening too and that is there's not much you can do with the money. If you're a cash operating farmer that doesn't borrow any money, you've got a lot of your savings perhaps or some of your savings, your working capital tied up in soybeans and if you were to sell the beans you'd get some cash but it's not worth anything at the bank.

Roach:So, I think people are saying, I'd rather hold the bean, it may be the better investment. Nobody is talking about beans becoming surpluses next year. People are talking about acreage being down and certainly with the level of demand we've seen in the past year if we were to see growth in that demand we could have an exciting situation perhaps this next year develop. But that's stretching out a long way. So, if a person is holding onto soybeans past this next rally that we see, they're going to have to take a very long-term approach to this market and hope that the demand situation falls into place.

Pearson:You mentioned on the show, just to shift gears, I want to talk about livestock for just a minute. You're friendly to this hog market and it's been a long while since we've had anybody say that.

Roach:Well, the market has gone through some very heavy production numbers, pork production numbers and those numbers will shrink and we tend to pick up a bit of demand as we move on into the, into the spring and summer. So, I think we'll have some recovery in the market. Remember, the hog market got higher than anybody figured in December. And so from that higher level than anybody figured it's been a disappointing winter. But that's not negative. When you get higher price levels than anticipated, that's not bad news. So, I think we've just had a period of time where we've had to slug through an awful lot of pork and I think that as we see those numbers come down, I think the market will recover. I also think that we maybe have changed consumer consumption a little with this war worry situation. We'll all have to learn what really has transpired because of this war worry and so that maybe has wrinkled the demand on the pork a little bit.

Pearson:Very good, as usual, John Roach, good to have you with us. John Roach joining us here on our Market Plus Web site. Again, thank you for joining us. Take care and we'll talk to you next time.


Tags: agriculture commodity prices markets news