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Market Plus: Sep 20, 2002

posted on September 20, 2002


Market Plus: Sep 20, 2002

Pearson: Welcome to Market Plus, part of our Market to Market Web page, glad that you've joined us. I'm Mark Pearson, host of Market to Market and this week, Sue Martin joins us and Sue, you've been talking about the soybean market. You're really not in a big hurry to sell beans.

Martin: No, I'm not Mark. I think that we're due for some correction here, as I mentioned during the show, that we are due for some correction to pull this market backwards a little bit and relieve the seven, eight months up that we've had in a cyclical count. But then I think we'll reset the market and start it back in motion again. China has been an avid buyer, they've bought 20 cargos of beans out of South America in the last two weeks. They've bought a fair amount out of us and they're still looking around with these breaks in the market and of course, if that was just a G-M-O issue they wouldn't be so aggressive out of South America. So, they're obviously saying that we have a market here that is very price worthy. The next thing is that, they're going into their harvest too by the way like we are, the next thing is, is that you have South America on October 6th going through elections and the gentleman that seems to be most favored is more of a person that has a tendency to be more of a socialist. I think that that's, some of the former issues that he ran on he never won because he's ran before. This time he's trying to tell the people what they want to hear and it's feared that he'll turn and revert back to his old habits or thoughts once he's elected. But it does appear he might get elected. If this occurs we're looking for more unrest, political unrest in Brazil and of course then, that might be why IMF gave them some funding and helped them out a little bit. But there's a situation where I think we're going to see some more enhancement of unsettled situation, political situations. You'll also see in Brazil sell beans very aggressively, maybe three times faster than they normally would. By the time they plant, the last time I was on the show I was thinking maybe by the time they plant they'd have maybe 50% sold. I fear they could be up as high as maybe 75-80% sold by the time they start to plant. So, by the time the crop is planted they could be at 90% sold. Any hint of a weather problem in South America and the northern regions are suffering from heat, they could have to buy back those shorts. Oh boy, that could be some excitement in the soybean pits in Chicago. So, hang onto the beans, if you want to sell them out, like I said earlier in the show there is no carry in this market but maybe come back with a futures position.

Pearson: Quickly over on the hogs, now you thought that we would see this hog washout early. That seems to have happened, we're not looking at a fourth quarter that is quite as dismal and this market has been recovering some. Now what's ahead for hogs?

Martin: Well, I think that there still remains to be good demand. Now, seasonally hogs do have a tendency to rally through the month of September and it can last as long as the first week of October. So, we'll give it that. We've come back to thirty-eight cents on the futures or right under thirty-eight cents, that's a fifty day moving average. So, it could be a little resistance here but I think that this market on the next setback will tell its whole story. I think we've got good demand building in pork and the US, of course, DA (USDA) is buying pork as well and I think that we've got a market here that is consuming the two million head of hogs a week that we're slaughtering and of course we look to be continuing to slaughter. Also, we don't have nearly...Canadian hogs coming into the country now.

Pearson: So all that said and done maybe this market might fall back some again in October?

Martin: I think you can see a little bit of a correction but I don't think we're going as deep as we were. I think our lows are in.

Pearson: Very good. Sue Martin joining us here on Market Plus, the Market to Market Web site, thanks for joining us. I'm Mark Pearson, have a great week.

 


Tags: agriculture commodity prices markets news