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Market Plus: Aug 30, 2002

posted on August 30, 2002


Market Plus: Aug 30, 2002

Pearson: Welcome to Market Plus here on our Market to Market Web Site, I'm your host Mark Pearson. Thanks for joining us, thanks for checking in on our Web site. Don't forget to tell your friends about the Market to Market Web site too. We want to hear from them as well and have them check out our analyst's comments, this week Virgil Robinson joins us. Virgil, always good to have you with us.

Robinson: Thank you Mark.

Pearson: You were on a few weeks back and you said we could see corn come close to $3.00 on the board, we got to $2.90. Tonight you're talking $3.20 but again that may not happen September 12th.

Robinson: Correct, I think that's a target Mark that will take shape over the course of the next several months. Again, I sense, at least in my work that most consumers of corn, as well as other proteins Mark, have virtually little if any coverage. I think all are of the opinion that as the 2001 corn loans mature in this late August, Sept., Oct. period in combination with whatever harvest we have this fall that there will be a slug of corn from which they can buy at relatively cheap prices or less expensive prices. I'm not convinced that is the case Mark, I think domestic demand from the ethanol user to the corn syrup manufacturer to the exporter is going to be pretty intense all year long and I would use any near term weakness in futures and/or cash as an opportunity to begin procuring supplies for the next several months.

Pearson: Okay, you also talked on the show about basis values holding strong throughout the year which again backs up the point that a lot of these producers, a lot of these end users have been hand to mouthing it here because we've kind of been spoiled with big crops. Let's talk about another group that's a big user and that's pork producers. We talked on the show about you're not convinced we have pulled any hogs forward.

Robinson: The weight situation doesn't suggest that Mark, at least in the week over week analysis last week versus this. In each of those two weeks we killed a couple of million hogs, slaughtered a couple of million hogs, unusually large numbers for this period of time and exceeding what was forecast in the recent hog and pig crop report Mark. So, I'd like to suggest that that has occurred but the numbers, at least the way I view them, does not support that. I can, however, bring to the attention of our viewers something a little more positive and that is, in the last few weeks, by that I mean four or five weeks, the number of sows and gilds in the slaughter mix has increased pretty significantly. That would suggest and I think document the fact that we are not growing the breeding herd but in fact reducing it and that has some positive spin to it over the next several months forward.

Pearson: Again as the pork producer you would start looking at maybe getting some of next year's production edge?

Robinson: Well, I'm concerned yet about the slug of both frozen and fresh meat that we're yet to consumer, Mark, as mentioned in the earlier part of the show, the October hog futures contract this week was a complete wreck as well as the cash market being off ten dollars or more. However, deferred futures, specifically December and February '03 actually closed the week higher. In my opinion, our position here to is to push higher. So, it should give us an opportunity I think in the next couple of weeks to lay off some of the risks involved late here in the last part of 2002, early 2003 by using December futures around $38.00 and February futures around $44.00 to make some defensive strategy.

Pearson: Always good to have you with us, Virgil Robinson joining us here on Market Plus. For all of us at Market to Market, have a great week, I'm Mark Pearson.

 


Tags: agriculture commodity prices markets news