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Market Plus: Aug 16, 2002

posted on August 16, 2002


Market Plus: Aug 16, 2002

Pearson: This is Mark Pearson with Market Plus on our Market To Market Web site. Thanks for joining us and thanks for pulling up our page, we appreciate it. Let's bring in our market analyst this week, John Roach, Roach Ag Marketing, our senior market analyst. John, an explosive week in the grains this week, corn and soybeans some big moves up. Again, everyone has the question and if they didn't have the question it would be a foregone conclusion about what the markets are going to do. We just don't know, historically that August report, as you pointed out in the show, generally leads to a lower September report. Who knows, this could be the year that doesn't happen. People are thinking, what should we do? You talked about maybe $3.00 December corn, maybe a little bit better, six, six and a half on the beans. With the expansion in Brazil a lot of people are concerned about just how much oomph this bean market is really going to have in it.

Roach: Let me address the beans first because I think that the bean marketing decisions are real easy, don't sell them. In most areas you're barely above loan so you are protected from virtually here on down by the government loan program. Plan on finding a place to store the beans and let's wait and let Brazil have a little bit of springtime weather worry. Remember when we're the biggest bean producers we always get nervous during our spring, it's either too wet or too dry or something. Hopefully they'll have a little nervousness or we'll have a little nervousness about their spring and we should have a nice post-harvest rally. I just don't see farmers selling very many beans without the market rewarding them. These supplies are too tight, have a potential to be extremely tight. Had we not had the Brazilian competition that we're talking about we'd be talking beans much, much higher. So, it's easy, don't do anything with beans, just wait. If you've sold a lot of beans forward and you're kicking yourself, go buy some bean call options and retain some ownership in that fashion until we see what we've got out here as far as a crop and see what they're going to have for crop down there.

Pearson: Alright, good strategy. Let's talk livestock. We've got analysts who were saying fourth quarter is not going to be that bad, we don't think it's going to be as bad in terms of numbers, the kill numbers won't hit those big numbers, million plus a week and so forth. Now, you were on this week, we talked last week with Walt Hackney, he's dreading this fourth quarter, you're dreading this fourth quarter in terms of numbers. What should a producer be doing?

Roach: Well, I think from a standpoint of a pork producer, I don't have much advice for you because I think really the fall months on the Mercantile exchange, your opportunities to contract or to edge forward have already got too big of a discount in, I would just batten down the hatches and prepare for some poor prices and I think most pork producers already are and realize that the best thing for the livestock business is to move the price of feed up. It may be a painful thing in the initial part of it but that's the best thing for the production of red meat and the best thing for profitability is to have corn at a medium kind of a price to a firm price rather than a cheap price. We'll produce less red meat and we'll have better price levels and better profitability.

Pearson: Alright, John Roach from Roach Ag Marketing, appreciate you joining us here on the Market to Market, Market Plus segment. That's all the time we have. You had one more comment though John.

Roach: Well, the one comment that I have here is that we want to be a little bit careful in the corn business. We may have this corn market up here at a level that we can't sustain and so be sure you're a business manager. If you've got profitability out there in the farm, such that it's going to be a very good year and you let it all get away because the government found more bushels in the next report you're going to kick yourself. So, make sure that you are a good businessperson, that you are doing some marketing on strength but don't sell everything because prices should get better as we move on forward.

Pearson: John Roach, Roach Ag Marketing joining us on Market Plus.

 


Tags: agriculture commodity prices corn markets news soybeans