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Market Plus: Jul 26, 2002

posted on July 26, 2002


Market Plus: Jul 26, 2002

Pearson:Welcome to Market Plus. A feature of our Market to Market Web Site. I am Mark Pearson. Our analyst this week is Doug Hjort. Doug, first of all, I want to talk about one thing. We ran out of time. We were talking about hogs and you were saying you know, better prices this fall and it kinda, say what you were going to say.

Hjort: Yeah. What I should have said, was better than had been forecasted earlier. We are probably still going to have a problem with some prices there, being lower than they are now, but I think that we have done a good job of cleaning up and staying more current with marketing and so on. Also, looking at the hogs and pigs reports, there is not much expansion going on. The report out Friday didn't show much expansion at all. Matter of fact, a little bit more friendly than what the quarterly numbers might have been. So, I think that we are, the producers are paying attention here. Nobody wanted to go through that debacle that we had before and so, I think that they have taken note of it and it looks to me like we probably improved our price potential as much as $5.00 or maybe $6.00 a hundred weight for that December time frame.

Pearson: That is good news, now we just get the cattle moving along faster, we will be all set. I want to follow-up on other comments that you made regarding soybeans. We were kinda rushed along because of all the things we talked about related to corn and your strategy there. Strategy wise, on soybeans, you got this volatility going right now. It seems to be when we seem to make our worst decisions. Should we jump, should we jump on moving some cash beans, if we get one this up 20-30 cent weeks?

Hjort: I think that probably we should. Especially if there are any of the old crop left. There isn't much of that left any place right now. On new crop, again, it is all marketing, depending upon where you are at, during relation to your loan rate. What sort of a LDP are you looking at or are you looking at one? The main price development, the important price development as it usually is, but it is more important this year, will come in the next 3-4 weeks. You get into August and it is really when you start seeing what this soybean crop can be. There are some analyst out now that are saying that we may not have much over a 2.6 to 2.7 crop. USDA is well over 2.8 on their plug figures from the July report. We come out at those levels, we are going to be projecting ending stock a year from this fall at somewhere around one hundred million bushel or less, well that is an impossibility. Well, not impossible, but you know, it depends then of course on how big a crop they have in South America and so on. USDA already has a fairly large increase dialed in for South American production and USDA is also for the old crop, the one that they have already harvested, still running about one-half to two million tons too much on Brazil. So you see, all of that stuff could come in to tighten that ending stock figure even more. Now, the caveat you have there on soybeans is world total oil seed production and use. Supply/demand balance. That is not nearly as tight as our soybean picture looks, so that's something to keep in mind. It is kind of a relief valve for prices. But I still look for prices to move more volatile and doing some pricing ahead might be warranted, but be careful on what you do after that.

Pearson: Alright. Doug, we appreciate it. Doug Hjort the analyst this week on Market Plus. Thanks for tuning in to our web site. I am Mark Pearson, have a great week.


Tags: agriculture commodity prices markets news pigs