Iowa Public Television

 

Market Plus: Jul 19, 2002

posted on July 19, 2002


Market Plus: Jul 19, 2002

Pearson:This is Mark Pearson. Thanks for joining us on Market Plus here on our Market to Market web-site. Our analyst this week is Tomm Pfitzenmaier with Summit Brokerage in Des Moines. Tomm, we talked about these weather markets and the opportunities that they provide. I mean, we are in it, tell us what to do. What should a producer be doing right now, wheat, corn and beans.

Pfitzenmaier:Well, I harp on this all of the time, and I think that you have to continue to harp on it. There are two strategies. You sell off against resistance and use a stop if it breaks above it. Now, that is easier to do on the futures than if you are cash, strictly a cash market or maybe your elevator will let you do that and maybe they will let you buy calls, but it takes some kind of defensive strategy. I am a big advocate of buying puts and selling calls. I think that opportunity is presenting itself here where the upside potential is...I mean there is some, but it is not infinite and you can lock yourself in a pretty good floor. Sell a call to pay for it and have yourself a nice little range locked in here, but I really hope that I can emphasize to people that an opportunity is being presented here and we are getting an opportunity to sell both corn and beans well above the loan rate and you just have to take a piece of that. Now maybe you don't sell a 100% or even 50%, but you have to start scaling into this and establishing yourself some sales in order to take advantage of it. As I said on the show, you can't wait until it over and then try to do it, because most people just aren't astute enough to figure that out. And we are at that point. It seems like a year ago, you know you were talking about getting some sales in. December corn at 250, you know we have got a chance here to do things again. Let's take advantage of it and don't let the opportunity slip by.

Pearson:I need to talk about livestock here for just a moment. We were very brief on hogs on the show, because of all the things going on in the grains. Quickly. The 4th quarter you are not as worried about now as you were 6 weeks ago. I mean it looks like we are getting a little better control on this hog business. What should we be doing on hogs?

Pfitzenmaier:I mean I have thought all along, that they were getting a little carried away on the negativity on the December contract, so it is nice to see us pull up off of that. Now, you don't want to get yourselves wildly bullish either here, but I think if you can buy yourself a put that protects that down side, sell a 46-48 dollar call to pay for it and hope like heck that you get in trouble on that call, because it goes up through it. That is the approach that we are going to take. Like I said, demand had been better, the numbers are a little less, I think that the upside potential is there to some extent on hogs, if it don't get carried away with it.

Pearson:All righty. Tomm, we appreciate it very much. And that's Market Plus for this week. Thanks for joining us. I am Mark Pearson for Market to Market.


Tags: agriculture commodity prices corn markets news wheat