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Market Plus: Jul 05, 2002

posted on July 5, 2002

Market Plus: Jul 05, 2002

Pearson: Hey thanks for joining us on Market Plus here at the Market to Market Web Site. I'm Mark Pearson the host of Market to Market. Two great guests tonight and some good comments at a critical time. We face our greatest risk in agriculture when prices are the highest and we are seeing higher prices in the grains. Wheat in particular, corn and soybeans and Doug Jackson you are particularly enamored of the prospects for soybeans. Talk a little bit about the soybean futures again, should the hot weather continue, what should producers plan to do.

Jackson: Well Mark, of course the bean market this last week was taken up on two things, the weather fears and also the cash squeeze in the nearby futures. We continue to sell beans at an unsustainable pace and the old crop the July bean futures that expire next Friday could still be explosive in and of themselves even without a weather problem and we are really starting to see again the arithmetic of supply and demand come home to roost. The bean balance table is extremely delicate, just a one or one and a half bushel per acre yield decline and we have a situation where the U.S. carry-out next year could be below a hundred million bushels. This is something that really would be statistically intolerable. It doesn't take any imagination at all, Mark, to have a weather problem reduce yields very easily to the point where we would actually have to import beans and products from South America to just maintain a minimum U.S. supply. With the rust problem down there, of course, that might be a problem, we might have to import the products and not the beans. Yes, there are plenty of beans in the Western hemisphere today. Yes, you know, we need to stimulate acres in South America and we will do that at these high prices with the currency values such as they are, but really we are now at the point, Mark, where we have got to stimulate a huge expansion of world oil seeds, both soy and non-soy to just keep this situation in balance. Next year, we need a crop in South America for the first time that will eclipse U.S. bean production just to keep this situation in balance. Any kind of a weather problem there, and the thing goes into hyperspace.

Pearson: Very good. Doug, an explosive situation well put. Alright Virgil, flipside. The downside on these hogs. Now, now everyone is starting to feel better about the 4th quarter, everybody except Virgil. You're kind of concerned that those 41 cent December hogs look pretty good.

Robinson: Mark, I am just of the opinion that if the recent hogs and pigs report numbers the farrowing intentions the numbers are accurate that will in fact grow pork production in the 3rd quarter of this year, the 4th quarter of this year and likely the 1st of 2003. So combining that, with what appears to me to be a very adequate beef supply as well as poultry supply, suggests that we could in fact tax or conceivably tax, slaughter capacities here in the United States in that 4th quarter of 2002. We should have a number of weeks through that period where we slaughter two million head of hogs or more, which in, at least in 1998, proved to be a very taxing situation. So, with that in mind, I would rather error on the side of conservatism here Mark and at a minimum, I would be on alert to protect that 4th quarter production against the prospect of some $30 hog prices.

Pearson: Alright, well put. Virgil, Doug thank you so much. And boy, that is our session for this week. Thanks for joining us. I am Mark Pearson for Market to Market.

Tags: agriculture commodity prices markets news